830
FXUS61 KCAR 021010
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
610 AM EDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will crest over the Gulf of Maine today. High
pressure will then remain ridged south of the waters Friday
through the weekend and into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
615AM Update: Updated to cancel the frost advisory.

Previous Discussion...
Today, 1035mb high pressure crests over Maine. As
a result, looking at calm northwesterly winds and clear skies.
High temperatures in the upper-50s in the north, and low-60s
Downeast. Relative humidity in the 30-40% range throughout
northern and eastern Maine. Tonight, looking at a few mid-to-
upper level clouds rolling through the north. Calm winds and
mostly clear skies primes the surface for favorable decoupling,
leading to some cold overnight low temperatures in the upper-30s
to low-40s. Potential for some river valley fog to develop with
light winds.

High pressure remains over the western Atlantic. Mostly clear
skies during the day on Friday, with high temperatures in the
upper-60s. Southwesterly winds. Mid-level shortwave disturbance
brings a slight chance for a brief shower to pop through the
Crown of Maine Friday evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure remains ridged south of the region Friday night
while a slow moving cold front begins to approach northwest
Maine late and an upper level disturbance begins to track north
of Maine. Expect partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance
of showers across northern Maine Friday night, with mostly
clear skies Downeast. The cold front reaches northern Maine
Saturday. The upper disturbance should clip northern Maine early
Saturday before exiting across the Maritimes. Could still have
a slight chance of showers across northern areas early Saturday.
Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies north with mostly sunny
skies Downeast. The frontal boundary should begin to lift back
north Saturday night, while an upper level disturbance clips
northern areas. Expect partly cloudy skies along with a slight
chance/chance of showers north Saturday night, with mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies Downeast. The upper level disturbance
will exit across the Maritimes early Sunday. Could still have a
slight chance of showers across northern areas early Sunday.
Otherwise, expect partly sunny skies north with mostly sunny
skies Downeast. Temperatures will be at above normal levels
Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Surface high pressure remains ridged south of the region Sunday
night through Monday, while upper level ridging builds across
the region. Expect mostly clear skies Sunday night into Monday.
A cold front begins to approach northern Maine later Monday
night. Expect partly cloudy skies along with a slight chance of
showers late across northern areas Monday night, with mostly
clear/partly cloudy skies Downeast. The cold front slowly
approaches Tuesday while low pressure begins to move along the
front. Expect increasing clouds along with a chance of showers
north Tuesday, with partly cloudy skies along with a slight
chance of showers Downeast. Expect mostly cloudy skies along
with a chance of showers regionwide Tuesday night. Low pressure
should track northwest of Maine Wednesday, starting to draw the
cold front across the region. However, how rapidly the cold
front moves is still uncertain. Shower chances will increase
Wednesday, with a steadier rain possible. Temperatures will be
at much above normal levels Monday/Tuesday, possibly approaching
record levels at some locations. Slightly above normal level
temperatures are then expected Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions today. Winds from
the NW, around 5kts, and shift to the SW by evening. Few mid-
to-upper level clouds move in later this evening.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions today. Winds from the NW, around 5kts,
and shift to the SW by evening. Few mid-to-upper level clouds
move in later this evening.

SHORT TERM:

Friday night...VFR. Slight chance of showers late north.
Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday through Sunday...Occasional MVFR possible north.
Otherwise, VFR. Slight chance of showers north early Saturday
then again later Saturday night into early Sunday. Variable
winds 5 to 10 knots Saturday/Saturday night. Variable winds
5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southwest around 10 knots Sunday.

Sunday night through Monday...VFR. Light southwest winds Sunday
night. South/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: High Surf Advisory in effect until 8am, with
heightened wind speeds gusting up to 25 kts, elevated sea
heights around 5ft, and long periods around 12-14 seconds. SCA
conditions persist until early afternoon in the intra-coastals,
and mid-afternoon for the outer-waters. Winds and seas slowly
decrease back to below SCA by this afternoon. Winds from the N,
shifting to the SW by evening time.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Friday
night through Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Afternoon minimum RHs for today and Friday is expected to drop
to the 30-40% range. Good RH recovery expected during the
overnight hours. Relatively light and variable winds today. Much
warmer temperatures in the 70s expected Saturday through early
next week but dry. Winds each day expected to generally be less
than 15mph. Wetting rain is very unlikely until perhaps Tuesday
night into Wednesday night next week, but confidence is low.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ050-
     051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...Brennan
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Brennan/Norcross
Marine...Brennan/Norcross
Fire Weather...