106
FXUS61 KCAR 191052
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
552 AM EST Wed Nov 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast of Labrador today, as high
pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will cross the
region Thursday. An occluded front will cross the region Friday
night then exit across the Maritimes Saturday. High pressure
builds in Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...

6:00AM Update...Updated Aviation section. Please see below.

.Previous Discussion...
*Key Messages:
-Dry and mild conditions today through Thursday
-Colder than normal temperatures tonight

Today, low pressure over Labrador moves northeast, as a high
pressure system builds in from the west. Partially cloudy in the
north, with most clouds on the windward side of mountain ranges.
Clear skies Downeast. Daytime highs in the mid-to-upper 30s in
the north, and upper-30s to low-40s Downeast. Westerly winds and
dry conditions.

Tonight, clear skies with mostly light winds. 850mb
temperatures in the -5 to -7 range, plus some snow cover on the
ground in the north, will lead to some seasonably cool minimum
temperatures. Northern areas will be in the upper-teens, and
Downeast will be in the low-20s.

On Thursday, high pressure moves over the region. Mostly clear
skies, as winds generally become light and variable. Daytime
maximums in the mid-30s in the north, and low-40s Downeast.
Clouds begin to move in from the west by evening time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure begins to exit across the Maritimes Thursday
night, while an occluded front begins to cross western Quebec
province late. Clouds will increase Thursday night. The occluded
front will approach western portions of the forecast area later
Friday. Expect a light snow/rain mix across northern areas
Friday. Across Downeast areas, expect mostly cloudy skies early
Friday with then a chance of light rain during the afternoon.
The occluded front will cross the region Friday night. Light
snow is likely across northern areas early Friday night, then
diminishing overnight. Across Downeast areas, expect a chance of
light snow/rain early Friday night then also diminishing
overnight. An upper level disturbance will cross the region
Saturday helping support the development of an offshore low,
though the track of the low is still uncertain. Could have a
chance of mostly early snow showers across northern areas
Saturday. Across Downeast areas, precipitation chances will be
dependent on the eventual track of the offshore low. A more
southerly low track could keep precipitation mostly offshore
with only a slight chance of early snow/rain showers. A track
across the Gulf of Maine, closer to the Downeast coast, would
increase rain/snow chances Downeast. Expect near normal level
temperatures Friday. Near normal, to slightly below normal,
level temperatures are expected Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will build across the region Saturday night with
partly cloudy skies north, partly cloudy/mostly clear Downeast.
High pressure will cross the region early Sunday, with a warm
front then approaching Sunday night. Expect partly sunny skies
Sunday. Clouds then increase Sunday night with light overrunning
precipitation also possible in advance of the warm front.
Across northern areas expect precipitation mostly in the form of
light snow or snow showers. Across Downeast areas precipitation
could be in the form of light snow/rain showers. The warm front
should cross the region Monday with light precipitation. Across
northern areas expect precipitation in the form of snow/rain
showers, with mostly rain showers Downeast. Could still have a
chance of snow showers across the forecast area Monday night. An
upper level disturbance could cross the region Tuesday while
high pressure builds at the surface. Expect partly sunny/mostly
cloudy skies Tuesday, along with decreasing snow/rain shower
chances. Expect slightly below normal level temperatures Sunday,
with near normal level temperatures Monday/Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM:
KFVE/KCAR/KPQI/KHUL: VFR conditions at all northern terminals
today. There is a few low-level clouds moving throughout the
day. W winds around 5-10 kts, with gusts up to 20 kt possible at
KFVE. Winds become light and variable tonight.

KBGR/KBHB: VFR conditions at southern terminals. Clear skies. W
winds around 5-10 kts. Winds become light and variable tonight.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday night...VFR early, then MVFR/IFR late. Variable winds
5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southeast.

Friday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR. A chance of light snow/rain
early, then light snow/rain north. A chance of light rain/snow
early, then a chance of light rain Downeast. South/southeast
winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south/southwest 10 to 15 knots.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR late.
Light snow likely early, then a chance of light snow north.
A chance of light rain/snow early, then a slight chance of
light rain/snow late, Downeast. South/southwest winds 10 to 15
knots, becoming west/northwest.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north.
VFR/MVFR with a slight chance/chance of rain/snow showers
Downeast. West/northwest winds 10 to 20 knots with gusts 25 to
30 knots.

Saturday night...VFR/MVFR north. VFR Downeast. West/northwest
winds 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday...VFR. West/southwest winds 10 to 15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Conditions fall below Small Craft Advisory this
morning. Westerly winds that shift to the north by Thursday.
Gusts below 20mph on Wednesday, and winds become light on
Thursday. Seas at or below 3 ft over the outer-waters, and at or
below 2 ft over the intra-coastals.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels
Thursday night/Friday. Small craft advisory conditions then
possible Friday night/Saturday. A chance of rain later Friday
into Friday night. A chance of rain showers Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...ASB
Short Term...CN
Long Term...CN
Aviation...ASB/CN
Marine...ASB/CN