255
FXUS61 KCAR 031132
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
632 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low exits into the southern Canadian Maritimes today. An
Arctic cold front crosses the region on Thursday with high pressure
building in for Friday. Another cold front approaches from the
northwest on Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Main Points:
* Today: Low pressure continues to shift eastward, with snow
  exiting the area this morning.
* Thursday: Arctic front crossing the area will bring a threat
  for snow squalls to the CWA, which could lead to hazardous
  travel conditions for the Thursday evening commute.

630 AM Update: The Winter Weather Advisories and Warnings
have been cancelled as accumulating snow has exited the region.

Discussion:
Low pressure is currently found moving well south of Nova
Scotia, with a well defined cirrus shield seen on current IR
satellite imagery moving eastward and out of the region. Snow is
also exiting the area, with moderate snowfall slowly tapering
off Downeast and light snowfall tapering off across eastern
Aroostook county. Winds will peak this morning as the low
pressure exits the region, and begin to taper off through the
rest of the day as a narrow ridge of high pressure moves into
the area.

More mild conditions are in store for later this afternoon into
tonight, with highs in the upper 20s to lower 30s today, and
lows in the upper teens to around 20 tonight.

For Thursday, an arctic front will approach from the west and
cross during peak diurnal heating on Thursday. Forecast steep
low level lapse rates of 7 to 8 C/km and weak but non-zero CAPE
will help support convective snow shower development,
particularly along the boundary. Winds will quickly increase
aloft behind the front due to the tightened pressure gradient,
and should the mixed layer reach up to around 850 mb, over 30 kt
winds become accessible and could cause surface gusts strong
enough to pick up freshly fallen snow and further limit
visibility. Additionally, strong cold air advection with the
establishing arctic air mass may result in a flash freeze with
temperatures quickly falling from the mid 30s down into the
single digits over a few hours. All of these ingredients could
lead to hazardous travel conditions, with visibility rapidly
dropping to near zero, sudden strong wind gusts, and suddenly
slick surfaces. NAM and GFS forecast snow squall parameter both
exceed 1 and there is a risk for snow squalls in the most
intense heavy snow showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages
-Strong winds expected Thursday night
-Low temperatures Thursday night with wind chills as low as 25 to 30
 below zero over the north and 15 to 20 below zero north of the coast
-Patchy blowing snow expected in open areas Thursday night

Cold air will push into the area Thursday evening in the wake of an
Arctic cold front moving through. NW winds sustained between 15-
25 mph during the overnight. Low pressure will be deepening over
the Canadian Maritimes with high pressure building into the
northeast, leading to tightening pressure gradient. Winds will
frequently gust to 35-45 mph and possibly as high as 50-55 mph over
the higher terrain. Low temperatures are expected to drop below zero
to the north of the Central Highlands into southern Aroostook
County. This will lead to winds chills as low as 25 to 30 degrees
below zero over portions of the North Woods and Central Highlands,
and as low as 15 to 25 degrees below zero north of the coast.

In addition to the wind chills and strong winds, blowing snow will
likely be a factor over the open areas Thursday night. Given
the cold air blowing over the open waters of the St. Lawrence
and favorable low-level flow, cannot rule out a brief laurentian
plume of snow showers over northern Aroostook Thursday evening.
This may put down minor snow accumulations from the North Woods
over towards the Mars Hill area.

Friday will see high temperatures well below normal, though not
quite into min maximum temperatures for the day. All but coastal
areas will remain in the teens. Skies will be mostly sunny over most
areas with partly cloudy conditions moving into the west with subtle
s/wv approaching in zonal flow. Wind chill temperatures acrs the
north will remain right around zero degrees throughout the day on
Friday.

Brief s/wv ridging aloft expected on Friday night acrs the area with
lows "warming" into the single digits north of the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages
-High pressure early in the weekend
-Cold front moves through Saturday night and Sunday

High pressure over the area on Saturday with another cold front
approaching from the west Saturday evening. Cannot rule out brief
snow showers Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures drop
back into the single digits Sunday night. High pressure begins to
build in from the west on Monday. 00z guidance begins to diverge
after Monday with GFS bringing zonal flow Monday night, EC hinting
at a developing trof while CMC brings upr ridge toward the region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: IFR conditions will quickly improve to MVFR/VFR this
morning as low cigs and snow exit to the east. VFR conditions
continue through the rest of the day and into the night tonight
with winds becoming light and variable.

Cigs diminish to MVFR by Thursday morning with TEMPO LIFR in
snow showers and squalls. Squalls are most likely across
northern terminals. S winds around 5 kts shifting NW and
increasing to 10 to 20 kts with gusts 25 to 30 kts, and higher
in any squalls.

SHORT TERM:
Thursday night...VFR Downeast terminals with MVFR cigs north. NWS 10-
20kts, gusting to 30-35kts.

Friday...VFR. W 5-15ts.

Friday night...Mainly VFR. Light SSW winds.

Saturday-Saturday night...VFR/MVFR cigs with possible IFR in -shsn.
SSW 5kts.

Sunday...Mainly VFR, though MVFR possible north. WNW 5-10kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: Gale conditions continue over the waters this
morning, improving through the day today as high pressure
returns to the area. Seas will return to 4 to 6 ft after the
first round of gales. Gales will likely return to all waters on
Thursday as a strong cold front moves through the area. Sea
surface temperatures of 47 to 49 may be too warm for this cold
front to result in any freezing spray, but if enough upwelling
occur to quickly drop these temperatures, light freezing spray
could develop.

SHORT TERM: Gale force winds expected into Friday morning before
diminishing to small craft levels through Friday afternoon.
Freezing spray may be able to occur if sea surface temperatures
can drop to 45 degrees, but not confident that this much
upwelling will be realized. Winds look to remain below small
craft advisory levels through Sunday. Seas between 3-6 feet
through Thursday morning before climbing to 5 to 9 feet Thursday
night, then decreasing below small craft levels Friday
afternoon. Seas remain below SCA levels through the end of the
weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ050-051.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for ANZ052.

&&

$$


Near Term...AES
Short Term...21
Long Term...21
Aviation...AES/21
Marine...AES/21