009
FXUS61 KCAR 151130
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
730 AM EDT Wed Oct 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough of low pressure will dig to our east today through Thursday
then slide to the southeast on Friday as high pressure builds in.
High pressure will crest over the area Saturday then move east of
the region Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
7 AM Update: A mild start to the day this morning with
temperatures starting in the upper 40s to lower 50s across the
forecast area, thanks to mostly cloudy skies associated with the
trough across the north at this time. As the trough pushes
southwards, skies will begin to clear and winds will increase
with diurnal mixing as the pressure gradient increases aloft.

Previous Discussion:
An upper level shortwave sliding southeast from Central Canada
will be north of our area early today and then drop south across
our region this afternoon. Moisture pooled in this trough along
with a cold front moving across will bring a mostly cloudy sky
over central and northern areas with partial sunshine Downeast.
The upper trough will support an inverted trough extending
northwest from low pressure well off the Mid-Atlantic coast.
This upper trough, combined with high pressure to our northwest
will bring a gusty northwesterly wind across the region today.

The upper trough will slide south through the eastern part of our
region tonight as it continues to support an inverted trough over
Nova Scotia. Moisture backing around the upper low and pooled in the
inverted trough will bring a cloudy sky along with some showers over
eastern areas with the highest chance for showers along the New
Brunswick border. Gusty north to northwesterly winds will continue
overnight.

The upper trough will slowly move south of our area Thursday.
Moisture will continue to wrap into the region around the upper
trough on Thursday bringing a continued chance of showers,
especially across the eastern part of our area. The inverted trough
will also slide south and begin to merge with the large upper low
well south of Nova Scotia. Gusty north winds will persist in the
gradient between the low off the coast and high pressure
building in from the northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure gradually builds into the region through the end
of the week. As the previous low pressure system continues to
push eastward away from the area, the low will continue to
deepen, and the pressure gradient between this low and the ridge
building into the area will be cause for breezy winds Thursday
night through Friday thanks to a low level jet mixing out. With
the northwest cold air advection, highs on Friday will be in the
50s across the CWA. The pressure gradient will begin to relax by
Friday night, and allow for light winds and clear skies that
could be conducive for efficient radiational cooling. Lows
Friday night may fall into the low to mid 30s through the
forecast area, with some colder valleys in the north having a
chance at falling into the upper 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A narrow ridge of high pressure will remain over the forecast
area through the weekend, keeping dry weather and light winds in
place and allowing for high temperatures to rebound into the
60s. The next low pressure system will approach from the west
Sunday into early next week. There is better consistency with
the latest 00z guidance that the ridge will hold through Sunday
night, with precip not reaching our forecast area until Monday
morning at the earliest. That said, there remains plenty of
uncertainty in both the timing of the next low pressure system
as well as the track of the low. An upper level trough will
become negatively tilted as it pushes into the New England
region, and this will support a deepening surface low pressure.
The trough will be able to tap into a plethora of mid level
moisture from the Gulf Stream, and the combined effect could
lead to moderate to heavy rainfall on the north and eastern
portions of the low. In these quadrants, the wind direction
would also be favorable for orographic lift into the Central
Highlands, should the low track be conducive, for further
enhancement of rainfall amounts. Current guidance suggests this
low will cross the forecast area sometime Monday into Monday
night, though there remains the potential the pattern will slow
enough for the low to hold off until during the day on Tuesday.
The track of this developing low pressure will continue to be
closely monitored.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aside from a brief period of early IFR/MVFR in FG/BR
this morning, VFR conditions expected across all terminals
through the day today. Breezy, with NW winds increasing to 10 to
15 kts with gusts 20 to 25 kts by early this afternoon. Cigs
will begin to decrease tonight, becoming MVFR at most sites into
the day on Thurs in rain. IFR cigs possible at Aroostook
terminals. NW winds remain 10 to 15 kts tonight into Thurs with
gusts 20 to 25 kts.

SHORT TERM:
Thurs night: Improving to VFR from N to S. NW winds 10 to 15
kts gusting 20 to 25 kts.

Fri - Sat night: VFR across all terminals. NW winds 10 to 15 kts
gusting 20 to 25 kts Fri decreasing to 5 to 10 kts Fri night
through Sat night.

Sun: Generally VFR across all terminals, though cigs will begin
to fall towards MVFR heading into Sun night. S winds 5 to 10
kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A SCA will continue for the offshore waters for
winds gusting up to 25 kt and seas up to 6 ft today and tonight.
The SCA may have to be upgraded to a gale on Thursday for gusty
northwesterly winds.

SHORT TERM: Winds will gradually be decreasing Thursday night as
low pressure exits to the east, though gusts could remain above
25 kts into Friday afternoon before easing off into Friday
night. Rain will quickly vacate the area Thursday night as well.
Seas 4 to 6 ft on the coastal waters will continue to decrease
as well, falling to 2 to 4 ft by Friday night. High pressure
will aid in conditions remaining below small craft advisory
criteria through the weekend.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ050-051.
     Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Friday morning for
     ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...AES/MB
Short Term...AES
Long Term...AES
Aviation...AES/MB/AES
Marine...AES/MB/AES