Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
059 FXUS61 KCAR 072318 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 618 PM EST Fri Nov 7 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure tracking into Quebec will pull a warm front north across the area tonight followed by a cold front on Saturday. High pressure will build overhead Saturday night. Low pressure will approach on Sunday, cross the area Monday and continue into eastern Canada Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Update... A warm front will lift north across the region overnight. Expect light snow across northern areas to transition to all rain before ending later tonight. Any snow accumulation before the changeover is expected to generally be an inch or less. Across the Bangor region and Downeast rain is expected. Expect slowly rising temperatures overnight. Temperatures by daybreak Saturday are expected to range from the upper 30s to around 40 across the north and the upper 40s to around 50 for the Bangor region and Downeast. See updated marine and aviation sections below. previous discussion Ridge axis extending thru the CWA will shift east this evening as low pressure approaches from the Great Lakes. Warm front has lifted into srn New England at this time. With warm lifting thru the CWA this evening overrunning will develop in conjunction with favorable jet dynamics and blyr cold enuf for snow at onset north of Millinocket. As front lifts thru the region overnight, warm air will change snow over to rain during the evening toward Houlton just before midnight and over the St. John Valley around 3 am. Plenty of lift looks to be available with a quick burst of snow btwn 00-06z tonight. Overall qpf during this time will range from 0.10- 0.20 inches with best lift just below the snow growth area. Strong winds will tend to fragment any snowflakes that fall and likely result in lower accums. With ground temps still being warm and snow changing to rain not expecting to wake up to much snow in the morning, unless snow falls at an intense rate. Initial boundary looks to move thru shortly before daybreak with rainfall coming to an end as dry slot works in. Cold front will move thru the area in the afternoon. Skies will begin to clear Saturday evening with high pressure building in. Though winds will remain well-mixed H8 temps drop to -5C and will bring mins into the 20s over all locations. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Vertically stacked low pressure system over Canada swings through the northeast on Sunday. There has been some discrepancy in model runs over whether a coastal low pressure system will also develop Sunday into Monday, but latest runs are favoring its development. Dry and cloudy on Sunday, as clouds and chances of precipitation increase Sunday evening into nighttime. Surface trough drapes over Maine, which is a favorable set up for cold air damming in the Central Highlands region. Dropped temperatures down during the day Sunday, as a result of this. Otherwise, highs generally in the upper-30s in the north, to mid-40s Downeast and along the coast. Sunday night, low pressure in Canada moves into Maine, as coastal low slides along the Gulf of Maine, decent moisture is advected into the region with PWATs ranging from three quarters of an inch to an inch in the north, and one inch to an inch and a quarter Downeast. Precipitation overnight begins as snow north of I-95, with a rain/snow transition along the central Highlands, and rain to the south. Overnight temperatures drop down into the upper-20s and low-30s in the north, and upper-30s and low-40s Downeast and along the coast. Winds begin to pick up Sunday night as low system approaches, shifting directions from the east to the west throughout the day on Monday. This is the result of strong mid-level jet that swings through central Maine, predominantly impacting the Downeast region. Once the sun rises and temperatures increase, all precipitation transitions over to rain. Given warm air advection ahead of aforementioned coastal low pressure system, temperatures are forecast to rise into the mid-40s in the north and, mid-50s along the coast. Mostly cloudy skies. Rain throughout the day into Monday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Unsettled weather persists in between pressure systems, as rain showers persist Monday night, potentially changing over to snow in the north by Tuesday. Next low pressure system moves into New Brunswick, with deep trough swinging through New England, bringing another chance for precipitation mid-to-late week. Generally, decreasing temperature trend, with highs in the mid-30s in the north and low-40s Downeast. Overnight lows in the 20s. Potential for breezy conditions Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: Conditions will deteriorate to MVFR/IFR this evening in snow/rain and continue until 12z to 14z Saturday. Conditions will then improve to VFR all terminals by Saturday afternoon. S to SE wind 5 to 10 kt tonight. LLWS expected 07z to 14z Saturday. SW wind around 10 kt Saturday becoming W. Outlook for Saturday night...VFR. N to NW wind. SHORT TERM: Sunday: Mainly VFR, decreasing towards MVFR late from south to north as snow showers move into the north and rain showers into the south. Winds shift from the NW to the E, at around 5 kts. Sunday night - Monday night: MVFR/IFR across all terminals, possible LIFR in rain/snow mix at northern terminals early Monday morning. E winds 5 to 10 kts through Monday afternoon, shifting SW at 5 to 10 kts Monday night. LLWS possible Monday afternoon into night. Tuesday - Tuesday night: Generally VFR, with MVFR possible in rain showers, with snow possibly mixing in at northern terminals early. SW to W winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Wednesday: Generally VFR early, before MVFR in rain/snow showers. Winds SW at 10-15 kts, with gusts up to 25kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: Winds/seas will continue to increase to SCA levels overnight and then continue through Saturday evening. SHORT TERM: Seas and winds generally stay below Small Craft Advisory criteria Sunday, an then reaches Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday night into Tuesday. Wind gusts up to 30 kts possible during this time frame, with waves reaching up into 6-8 ft. Wave heights and wind gusts stay elevated throughout the rest of the week. Generally, rain over the waters possible Sunday night into Monday, and then sporadic rain showers throughout the waters through the rest of the week. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...21/TWD Short Term...ASB Long Term...ASB Aviation...21/TWD/ASB Marine...21/TWD/ASB