215
FXUS61 KCAR 141051
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
551 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low pressure will remain over Eastern Canada through
Saturday. A new upper low diving down from Central Canada will
develop low pressure near our coast on Sunday. Low pressure will
lift into Eastern Canada Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
6 AM Update...Update to aviation section only. See below.

Today...Cool and breezy with flurries over west/central areas

A closed upper low is currently located off to our east. Weak
upper-level energy rotating around the upper low and upslope NW
flow may result in some isolated snow showers and flurries over
the western areas of the North Woods and the higher terrain in
Piscataquis county today. A modest pressure gradient between
the surface low to our east and high pressure building in from
the west will result in breezy day in NW flow. Expect an overall
cooler than average day with temperatures in the low to mid 30s
north and upper 30s to low 40s south.

Tonight...Dry, breezy, and cool

Low pressure lingering over the maritimes gradually moves
northeast with high pressure building into the area behind it.
Not expecting any precipitation as the high builds in. Enough of
a pressure gradient should foster some breezy NW flow which
should help to keep temperatures a bit warmer than the NBM but
still cooler than average.

Saturday...Mostly sunny with increasing clouds late ahead of
the Sunday system

High pressure will move over the area which should foster
mostly sunny skies through much of Saturday. Winds should also
be on a downward trend but may be breezy early. Clouds are
expected to increase late in the day as high cirrus ahead of the
warm front associated with the Sunday system approach the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Message...Confidence is increasing for the potential for an
accumulating snowfall Sunday into Sunday night, mainly from the
Katahdin region north.

Clouds increase Saturday evening in advance of low pressure and an
upper trough advancing from the west. Snow will develop from west to
east after midnight Saturday. Warmer air in advance of the low
will allow for mainly rain along the coast and Downeast. Snow
will continue on Sunday across northern areas, but a snow rain
mix is possible across portions of Aroostook County, with mainly
rain for Downeast areas and the Bangor region. Precipitation
types will ultimately depend on the track of the low. As the low
continues to move into the Canadian Maritimes later Sunday
afternoon and Sunday night precipitation should transition to
all snow across the region as colder air wraps back around the
low. Steadier snow should end later Sunday night and then taper
to snow showers on Monday. The best chance for accumulating snow
will be from the Katahdin region on north, where several inches
of snow is possible. South of there, across the Bangor region
and Downeast, expect only lighter accumulations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Message...Gusty Northwest winds expected later Monday into
Tuesday.

Low pressure will continue to lift through the Canadian Maritimes
Monday and then across Labrador through mid week. This will
keep a west to northwest flow across the area. Winds may gust
as high as 30 mph or greater Monday through Tuesday as the low
to our north intensifies keeping a tight pressure gradient
across the region. Any steadier snow across northern areas
Monday morning will give way to scattered snow showers by
afternoon. Outside of any isolated snow showers or flurries
Tuesday through Thursday, no hazardous weather is expected
during that period of the forecast. Afternoon high temperatures
are expected to average a bit below normal Monday through
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Mainly VFR for all terminals through Saturday. A 40%
chance of MVFR at FVE/CAR/PQI through early tonight. Too low
confidence to include in TAF. NW winds around 10 kts today and
5 to 10 kts tonight. Winds become westerly at 10 to 15 kts
Saturday.


SHORT TERM:

Saturday night...VFR early, then MVFR/IFR after midnight in
developing snow from west to east.

Sunday...IFR. Snow and rain. E to SE wind becoming N afternoon.

Sunday night...IFR. Snow. Gusty W to NW wind.

Monday...IFR/MVFR with scattered snow showers. Gusty W to NW
wind.

Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. Gusty W to NW wind.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect overnight
through early Saturday morning for the outer waters. Winds
decrease below SCA criteria Saturday.


SHORT TERM: Winds/seas are expected to remain below SCA levels
Saturday night, then increase to SCA levels during Sunday. Gale
force wind gusts are possible Sunday night through Monday
night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Saturday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...SM
Short Term...TWD
Long Term...TWD
Aviation...SM/TWD
Marine...SM/TWD