404
FXUS61 KCAR 182327
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
627 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain over Labrador through Wednesday, as
high pressure builds in from the west. High pressure will cross
the region Thursday. An occluded front will cross the region
Friday night then exit across the Maritimes Saturday. High
pressure builds in on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
6 PM Update: Skies continue to clear over the forecast area this
evening, with some low level stratus remaining hung up in the
North Woods and the Central Highlands. Winds remain breezy this
evening, but will taper off by around midnight tonight, though
higher terrain could continue to see breezy conditions through
the night. Wind gust forecast was increased through the night,
otherwise the previous forecast remains on track.

*Key Messages:
-High pressure building in on Wednesday
-Below normal temperatures expected Wednesday night

West winds continue to gust this afternoon over all areas between
1024mb sfc high over the Delmarva and 980mb low over the Maritimes.
Winds should remain mixed thru the overnight hours, especially in
the north. Skies will begin to clear this evening over the north,
though may cloudy back up briefly as s/wv drops south out of James
Bay, as noted on water vapor imagery.

High pressure will slowly build in from the west Wednesday morning
resulting in mostly sunny skies area-wide. Max temps will climb back
into the mid-30s acrs the north and around 40 for Downeast again for
tomorrow.

High pressure looks to be centered over the northeast with ridge
axis extending into wrn CWA by daybreak. NBM temps give lows in the
mid-upr teens Thursday morning but with clear skies and decoupled
winds, may need to drop lower at some point. This will be dependent
on how much snow cover remains from Sunday night/s storm. Either
way, mins Thursday morning will range from 5 to 8 degrees below
seasonal norms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
*Key Messages:
- Dry and seasonable weather Thursday
- A weak system Friday brings rain and snow to the north and
  rain south

High pressure will become centered over the area on Thursday
leading to mostly sunny skies, calm winds, and seasonable
temperatures. High pressure begins to weaken and slide east late
Thursday through Thursday night. Behind it, a low pressure
system will be tracking well to our northwest. Along an occluded
front extending from the system a secondary low is expected to
develop and pass just north of Maine. Precipitation should begin
entering western Maine Friday around mid-day and then slowly
spread east. A mix of rain and snow is expected in northern
Maine with rain south of the Katahdin region.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
*Key Messages:
- Rain and snow over northern Maine and rain south continues through
  Friday night
- Gusty winds Saturday
- Next chance for precipitation Monday into Tuesday

Rain and snow over the north with rain further south continues
Friday night. Expect snow totals from this system to be minimal
and of little impact as low-level warm air advection will be
keeping temperatures relatively mild. There still exists some
uncertainty in the intensity of the system which could impact
how far south precipitation falls and where the rain/snow line
will be. A weaker system with less warm air advection will have
less precipitation but snow may fall further south. A stronger
system may produce more precipitation overall but rain may make
it farther north due to increased low-level warm air advection.

Precipitation clears out on Saturday with breezy winds expected
as a pressure gradient develops in response to high pressure
building in behind the departing low. High pressure sticks
around through Sunday with dry weather and seasonable
temperatures. The next chance for precipitation comes Monday
into Tuesday as a shortwave trough approaches from the west,
developing low pressure at the surface. There still exists
considerable timing differences but generally expect a weak
system that produces mostly snow in the north and rain towards
the south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR for this evening and overnight for all terminals.
Gusty west winds will diminish over northern terminals tonight
by around 03z, becoming W around 5 kts through Wed night.
Downeast terminals will remain W around 5 kts through Wed night.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday...VFR. Light and variable winds.

Thursday night...VFR early, then possibly MVFR late. Light
south/southeast winds.

Friday...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR late. Light rain/snow
northern terminals, light rain southern terminals. S winds 5 to
10 kts.

Friday night...MVFR/IFR, occasional LIFR, early. VFR/MVFR late.
Light rain/snow northern terminals, light rain southern
terminals. S winds 5 to 10 kts becoming W late.

Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of snow showers north early.
West/northwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts 20 to 25 knots.

Saturday night...VFR. W winds 5 to 10 kts.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM:
6 PM Update: The small craft advisory has been extended until 2
AM over the coastal waters for winds gusting 25 to 30 kts and
seas remaining 5 to 6 ft through this time.

West winds will gust to small craft levels thru this
evening before diminishing blo 25kts over all waters. Seas look to
drop below 5ft over the outer waters around midnight tonight. Seas
and winds will then remain below SCA levels through the end of
the period.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels through
Friday. Winds and seas build to just above small craft advisory
criteria by Friday night. Winds and seas decrease below SCA
criteria Saturday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ050-051.

&&

$$


Near Term...AES/21
Short Term...SM
Long Term...SM
Aviation...AES/21/SM
Marine...AES/21/SM