462
FXUS62 KCHS 162131
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
431 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry cold front will move through the area tonight before high
pressure returns early next week. A warm front should lift
north of the region by Wednesday, with unseasonable warm
conditions remaining until next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Visible satellite and sfc wind observations indicated that a
dry back-door cold front was located over central NC extending
SW along the I-85 corridor of SC/GA. Based on satellite trends
and recent runs of the HRRR, the cold front is expected to push
across the CHS Tri-county this evening, reaching Savannah around
midnight. After the front, winds will shift from the north and
the sky should clear. Using a blend of MOS, low temperatures are
forecast to range from the low 40s inland to the upper 40s
along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Monday: By daybreak, the cold front is forecast to remain south
of the FL/GA line. In the wake of the front, a modified air
mass sourced from central Canada will build across the forecast
area through the day. As high pressure slowly slides over the
region, light northeast winds should remain through the daylight
hours across inland SE GA and SC. It is possible that a weak
sea breeze may develop along the GA and lower SC coast during
the afternoon, veering winds from the east. As a result, H85
temperatures are forecast to cool by only 1-2 C between 12-0Z.
The combination of cool LLVL thicknesses and mostly sunny sky
should yield high temperatures in the upper 60s across the SC
Lowcountry to the low 70s across SE GA. Dewpoints are forecast
to dip between 25 to 30 F along and west of I-95, to the low to
mid 30s to the east during the early to mid afternoon. Humidity
values should fall below 25 percent inland of the coastal
counties, some teens expected across inland GA. Fortunately,
light winds will limit any fire weather concerns, see Fire
Weather section below.

Tuesday through Wednesday: An organized low pressure system
will track east across the Central Plains to the mid-Mississippi
Valley through the period. The CWA will remain east of the low
and west of high pressure over the western Atlantic. This
pattern yield weak return flow across the region with increasing
llvl thicknesses. High temperatures should return to near
normal on Tuesday, values in the low 70s across the SC
Lowcountry and mid 70s across SE GA. On Wednesday, WAA and
mostly sunny conditions should result in high temperatures in
the upper 70s to low 80s. Conditions should remain rain-free
through mid-week.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Long term guidance shows a strong, nearly 590 DM, ridge
centered over the Gulf on Thursday and Friday. NAEFS indicates
that late Thursday into Friday, H5 heights and temperatures
across portions of the Southeast U.S. will approach 2 units of
standardized anomaly during the late work week. Given the strong
ridge over the region, temperatures will remain generally 10 to
12 degrees above normal with no precipitation. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will reach near record highs
(see Climate section), with near 80 across the SC Lowcountry to
the low to mid 80s across SE GA.

On Saturday, low confidence with the timing and placement of
the late week low pressure/cold front. 0/6Z guidance indicated
that the strong H5 ridge will remain along the Atlantic coast
through much of the day, resulting in the slower arrival of the
cold front. However, 12z guidance, especially the GFS, is much
faster with a closed low ejecting east across the Southern
Plains Friday night, passing over the forecast area late
Saturday. The NBM based forecast is certainly siding with the
slower scenario, featuring near record high temperatures and
overnight SCHC PoPs for showers. It is possible that the
forecast may trend cooler and wetter if the 12Z guidance holds.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
17/00z TAF Discussion:
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR through 18/00z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. It is possible that
periods of ground fog may develop during the pre-dawn hours
on Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory has been extended until 7 PM for the
South Santee-Edisto Beach nearshore and Georgia offshore legs.
Winds are still gusting 25 kt in these areas.

Tonight: A dry back-door front will push across the
SC waters this evening, reaching the GA waters around midnight.
As the front passes, winds will veer from the north between 10
to 15 kts. Seas by daybreak Monday are forecast to range between
2 to 3 ft.

Monday through Friday: Broad high pressure will remain over the
marine zones through the period. Wind speeds are forecast to
favor values between 5 to 10 kts. Seas should remain between 1-3
ft.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record High Temperatures:

November 20:
KCHS: 82/1942
KCXM: 78/1900
KSAV: 83/1942

November 21:
KSAV: 82/2011

November 22:
KSAV: 82/1997

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$