Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC
658 FXUS62 KCHS 200609 AFDCHS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 109 AM EST Thu Nov 20 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry high pressure is expected to prevail across the area through the rest of the week. A cold front is expected to move through this weekend, followed by more high pressure early next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Through Sunrise: Patchy dense fog is possible. Headlines may be needed. Today and Tonight: The mid-levels will consist of broad, weak ridging over the Deep South. At the surface, a stationary front located to our north this morning will meander south, stretching across our area this afternoon through this evening. This front will dissipate late this evening. High pressure will then prevail overnight. No rainfall is expected with this front. Temperatures will be above normal. High will range from the lower 70s across our northernmost counties, to the lower 80s across our southernmost counties. Lows will generally be in the 50s. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Friday: Aloft, broad upper-lvl ridging will be present over the Gulf, before flattening out to become more zonal by the afternoon. Simultaneously, a surface low will develop across the central CONUS and track to the east-southeast across the Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the forecast and allow temperatures to remain generally 10 to 12 degrees above normal with a rain-free forecast. High temperatures on Friday will reach near record highs (see Climate section), with upper 70s to low 80s across the SC Lowcountry to the low to mid 80s across SE GA. Saturday: As upper-lvl ridging becomes suppressed by a progressive shortwave traversing across portions southeastern Canada, the aforementioned surface low will float into the Carolinas and push an associated cold front through the area overnight. Model guidance has generally trended drier with this system over time, which makes sense given its approach from the west-northwest and the influence of downsloping. Forecast notes 20% PoPs across the interior counties ahead of the frontal passage, and could impact the area in the form of isolated to scattered showers. Rainfall amounts remain light as primary forcing remains north of the region. It is unlikely to add much relief to the ongoing severe drought across the inland counties. Temperatures will remain above normal with similar conditions to the previous couple days. Sunday: After the cold front passes through the region, modest cooling will allow temperatures to return to near normal. Expect high pressure to build in across the region and allow for zonal flow to take control again. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A pronounced shortwave situated across the Southern Plains will begin to approach the region early next week. This shortwave will also be accompanied by an elongated front which is projected to pass through the region sometime mid-to-late week. However, a good amount of uncertainty remains on timing and arrival of this system. At the surface, high pressure will setup offshore and yield above normal temperatures through most of early next week before the aforementioned system arrives. && .AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... 06Z TAFs: VFR. Extended Aviation Forecast: Prevailing VFR. && .MARINE... Through Sunrise: No hazardous weather is expected. Today and Tonight: A stationary front located to our north this morning will meander south, stretching across the coastal waters this afternoon through this evening. This front will dissipate late this evening. High pressure will then prevail overnight. Expect tranquil marine conditions with sustained winds 10 kt or less and seas 1-2 ft. Friday through Sunday: As surface high pressure continues to build across the local marine zones, expect winds will remain light and variable. Ahead of the approaching cold front, wind speeds could increase to 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts this weekend. Thereafter, high pressure will return to the Atlantic early next week. Seas will generally range from 1 to 3 ft. Overall, conditions will remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through the period. && .CLIMATE... Record High Temperatures: November 20: KSAV: 83/1942 November 21: KSAV: 82/2011 November 22: KCHS: 83/1942 KCXM: 79/1997 KSAV: 82/1997 && .CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ NEAR TERM... SHORT TERM... LONG TERM... AVIATION... MARINE...