947
FXUS61 KCLE 081134
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
634 AM EST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A passing, strong low pressure system will bring much colder air
into the region later this weekend with the potential for
accumulating snow from Sunday night through Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Spotty showers expected near the lakeshore this morning as another
weak cold front comes through the area. Well-advertised, developing
low pressure will track eastward today and tonight across the
Mississippi Valley, and then along the southern CWA border Sunday.
This low pressure system passing just to the south and then east of
the region will be the significant airmass changing system with the
stout cold air advection in its wake from an upper level low
dropping into the western Great Lakes. The first round of
significant precipitation comes after 03Z Sunday with the mid/upper
level trough moving into the western CWA and the associated PVA.
This will be in the form of rain primarily as the temperature drop
will be in the process of occurring, until around 10-12Z when wet
snow begins to mix in with the rain for the Toledo area prior to
sunrise. This could be short lived and will not be the permanent
change over to frozen precipitation until late Sunday with daylight
hours and a brief increase in temperatures in northwest Ohio back
into the upper 30s. A multitude of trough axes in the 700mb flow
will keep the chances for off and on precipitation going through the
day. Rain changes to snow west to east after 18Z, and will still be
in transition by 00Z Monday and the break with the short term
forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With the departure of the surface low to the east, focus of the
precipitation turns to the surface/low level flows off the lakes and
the assistance of the main upper level low working its way through
the southern Great Lakes. There is a pronounced amount of CAPE that
will become established because of the relatively warm lake water
temperatures in the mid 50s and 850mb temperatures around -11C,
which is delivering some hype for this system. With some aid from
the forcing aloft, snow, potentially moderate at times, is possible
across much of northern Ohio downwind of Lake Erie, from a northerly
fetch to start Sunday night into early Monday, veering to
northwesterly later Monday, and westerly Monday night. What will
keep the forecast snowfall amounts in check will be a combination of
not only those aforementioned changing low level flow directions,
but also patchy dry air in the low levels, making this an imperfect
setup. Most locations are going to see snow at some point, but with
the transient nature of the bulk of the parameters that will be
responsible for the precipitation, will keep the snowfall amounts on
the manageable side. During the daytime hours Monday, the snow line
will be pushed inland a bit due to warmer lake water temperatures,
and the highest amounts will ultimately end up in the higher
elevations of the NW PA counties. High pressure will build in from
the south heading into Tuesday, effectively shutting off the lake
effect by 00Z Wednesday. Coldest air of the season no doubt, and
Monday and Tuesday temperatures will largely be in the 30s with 20s
Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Broad scale troughing aloft will linger over the northeast CONUS,
and while a modest warm up is expected in a rebound from the cold
start to the week, temperatures will be work back into the upper
40s. Saturated low level flow off the lake could keep off and on
precipitation possible over the eastern zones of the CWA for the
middle to the end of the week. Milder conditions expected beyond
Friday into the weekend as upper ridging builds over the
midwest.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z Saturday THROUGH Wednesday/...
Currently this morning there is some patchy fog across areas from I-
71 eastward along and south of US Route 30. A few terminals have
reported non-VFR visibilities and down to LIFR at times. Most non-
VFR visibilities have not been prolonged and have bounced back up to
VFR after a couple of hours. The patchy fog should dissipate by
sunrise this morning and visibilities should be VFR by 14Z. There
are some low level clouds moving across the lakeshore from west to
east dropping ceilings to MVFR. This will mainly impact KCLE and
KERI this morning until drier air moves in this afternoon lifting
ceilings to low VFR. Additionally, there is the potential for showers
along the lakeshore today, but confidence is low in this as model
agreement is lacking and with dry air moving in.

Towards the end of the TAF period, a low pressure system will be
moving into the region from the west. This will be bring widespread
showers across the region starting at 02Z at KTOL and by 06Z at
KYNG. Showers will bring visibilites and ceilings down to MVFR
conditions. At KTOL, there will be potential for a rain/snow mix at
the end of the TAF period as temperatures will fall close to
freezing.

Winds will be fairly light throughout the TAF period being less than
10 knots. Wind direction will be predominantly out of the north
throughout the day Saturday and start to shift to be more east to
northeasterly as the low pressure system approaches by the end of
the TAF period. There will be an increase as well in the wind,
though on KTOL will see an increase during this period.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected Sunday through early next week with rain
and snow showers with a low pressure system moving through. Possible
prolonged non-VFR conditions in northeast Ohio and northwest
Pennsylvania with lake effect showers.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory will be allowed expire this morning as
winds and waves have continued to subside across the near
shore. Winds today will be generally out of the north at 5-10
knots then shifting to be more east-to-northeasterly by late
Saturday night. A low pressure system will approach from the
west Sunday morning and winds will increase to 25-30 knots and
waves building to 6 to 9 feet. The low will track to the south
of the region through the day on Sunday and winds will shift
around to be out of the north. Depending on the track and
intensity of the low, winds may be stronger.

As the low pushes off to the northeast winds will diminish to
15-25 knots Sunday night into Monday. A trough will move into
the region midweek and with a ridge building to the south, winds
will increase to near gale across the lake.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
     LEZ147>149.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...23
MARINE...23