652
FXUS61 KCLE 302016
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
316 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will move through tonight, with high pressure
quickly sliding through on Monday. Low pressure tracking across
the southern US will extend a surface trough into the Ohio
Valley Monday night into early Tuesday, before low pressure
shifts off the Mid Atlantic coast. High pressure slides through
on Wednesday, with a cold front pushing through on Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
-Ongoing 35 to 45 MPH wind gusts subside quickly this evening.
-A trough pushing off of Lake Erie into Northeast OH and Northwest PA
 this evening brings a burst of lake-enhanced snow, followed by brief
 lake effect banding mainly into Northwest PA through early Monday.

The good news is the weather is mainly dry this afternoon, the bad
news is that it`s quite windy and temperatures are gradually falling
in strong cold air advection behind this morning`s cold front. Winds
aloft behind our departing low pressure are very slowly easing this
afternoon, and will diminish more substantially this evening and
tonight. Expect gusty winds across most of the area to start
diminishing noticeably as the sun sets. Locations along the eastern
lakeshore will stay a bit gustier into this evening, though even there
winds should noticeably weaken late this evening into the overnight.
There have been some sporadic gusts into the 45-50 MPH range today as
winds over performed slightly in the strong cold air advection,
though those should be over with as winds aloft are now weakening.

Shifting attention to returning snow potential this evening into
tonight, a low-level trough axis is pushing southeast across Michigan
and will swing through the area this evening. For most, this will just
bring some flurries or brief/light snow showers, with some minor
enhancement from Lake Michigan into Northwest and Central Ohio. Any
accumulations outside of the Snowbelt this evening will be very light,
under 0.3", though could contribute to some slick spots if/where
measurable precip occurs as temperatures continue to plummet. Have a
low POP (generally 20-30%) outside of the snowbelt in response.

This trough passage will be a little bit more impactful downwind of
Lake Erie, particularly across the snowbelt of Northeast OH and
Northwest PA. A band of lake enhanced precipitation is expected to
develop along the trough axis as it crosses the lake this evening,
pushing onshore in Northwest PA starting around 6-7 PM and in the
Cleveland area towards 8-9 PM. This band of enhanced precip may
briefly be moderate to heavy, owing to lake-induced EL heights
climbing to 8-10k feet and strong convergence along the trough axis.
It`s worth noting that surface temperatures near the lake will be near
freezing early this evening, with the bulk of the lift and instability
still lying below the dendritic growth zone, keeping snow to liquid
ratios modest with the band along the trough. Still, this burst of
snow taking place after sunset with temperatures falling into the 20s
could lead to untreated paved surfaces turning slick/icy. The
synoptic lift/moisture and lake-induced instability will be greater
farther east this evening, so the burst of snow will be lighter
towards Cleveland and more impactful farther east. Behind the band of
snow ridging begins building in quickly, leading to inversion heights
starting to decrease as synoptic moisture also begins stripping away.
That said, some lake effect will briefly develop in northwest flow
behind the trough this evening as 850mb temperatures plunge to -12C by
early Monday. This lake effect will last longest and be most
organized and intense downwind of Lake Huron into parts of Northwest
PA, though even here it should quickly wind down into Monday. The
snowfall forecast has <1" in the Cleveland area, 0.5-2" of across the
Northeast OH snowbelt, highest in the higher terrain of Geauga and
Ashtabula, and 2-4" across the higher terrain of inland Erie/northern
Crawford PA. Amounts will be lighter near the lake in PA (likely an
inch or two), with locally 4 or 5" possible in the higher terrain of
Erie County where the Lake Huron connection develops overnight. While
forecast snow has been lowered slightly tonight in the snowbelt,
overall impacts remain similar and a marginal Winter Wx Advisory
remains in effect from 6 PM to 7 AM for inland Erie County PA.

Monday will feature some morning sunshine that gives way to increasing
clouds through the afternoon. Once any lake effect ends early, a dry
day is expected. After lows ranging from the upper 10s to mid 20s
tonight, highs in the low to mid 30s are expected Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
-Widespread light to moderate synoptic snow is expected Monday night
 into early Tuesday, with increasing confidence in impacts to the
 Tuesday morning commute.

A trough is expected to swing out of the central U.S. across the mid-
Mississippi Valley and into the southern Great Lakes Monday night
into Tuesday morning. As this happens, the trough will gradually
amplify and take on a negative tilt while attempting to phase/
interact with energy in the sub-tropical jet over the south. Weak low
pressure is expected to develop over the Southeast US Monday night
into early Tuesday while extending an inverted trough north into the
upper Ohio Valley. Low pressure deepens and moves northeast up the
East Coast on Tuesday as the Ohio Valley inverted trough weakens,
with high pressure quickly building in by Tuesday night. Snow is
expected Monday night into early Tuesday across the local area as a
favorable zone of large-scale ascent ahead of the amplifying shortwave
interacts with deeper moisture attempting to get pulled north.

Yesterday, discussed that a robust solution like the NAM had more
phasing and quicker trough amplification than nearly all other
guidance and was an outlier, while a model like the ECMWF with
consistently more bearish snowfall output was on the more progressive/
less amplified side of guidance...leading to a decent spread in
potential snow amounts and forecast uncertainty. Since then, the NAM
has trended slightly more progressive while most other guidance, in
particular the ECMWF and many of its ensemble members, has trended a
little bit more amplified with more phasing/interaction with the
subtropical jet. A convergence of solutions. While the NAM is still
on the most robust side of guidance with its snowfall output over the
90th percentile of the current NBM ensemble, the overall trend has
been for a bit more snow as other guidance trends slightly more
amplified and moist. The official forecast reflects this, with snow
amounts of 1-3" in the Toledo area increasing to 3-5" elsewhere, with
a small boost of lake enhancement behind the system in the Cleveland
area and snowbelt on Tuesday. Per developmental NBMv5.0 guidance, the
odds of over 2" of snow range from 30-50% across Northwest OH to 80%+
across our southeast, including Millersburg, Akron/Canton and the
Youngstown/Warren area. Odds of over 6", which seems like a realistic
high end amount locally given the quick-hitting nature of the system,
range from less than 5% in Northwest OH to 10-20% in a similar
corridor from Mt Vernon - Akron - Erie points east/southeast.

With this system primarily occurring the nighttime and early morning
hours and temperatures expected to be below freezing, snow
accumulations on roadways and impacts to the Tuesday morning commute
are becoming increasingly likely. The degree of impact will be
determined by total accumulations and what type of snow rates are
realized...there are hints at mid-level frontogenesis developing
across parts of the area late Monday night or pre-dawn Tuesday as
mid-level thermal gradients tighten ahead of the incoming upper
trough, which could lead to embedded pockets of moderate to heavy
snow. The impression is that Winter Weather Advisories are becoming an
increasingly likely proposition for parts of the area, particularly
farther south and east where the probabilities for a few inches of
snow are relatively higher. Snow will largely end early in the day
Tuesday, though winds swinging north-northwest off of Lake Erie as
some synoptic moisture lingers may lead to modest lake enhancement
from the Cleveland metro points east-southeast on Tuesday, adding
perhaps another inch or two of snow where the enhancement favors.

Lows Monday night will largely be in the mid to upper 20s, with highs
on Tuesday only warming slightly into the low to perhaps mid 30s. Lows
Tuesday night will range from the upper 10s to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-Strong cold front brings potential for a few snow showers Wednesday
 night into Thursday, with lingering lake effect on Thursday.
-Coldest night of the young season Thursday night into Friday morning.
-Precip chances (mainly snow) return to the forecast for the weekend,
 but confidence in any details or potential impacts is low.

Cold, active early winter weather continues through the long term as a
lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex settles into the vicinity of
Hudson Bay. A cold front will cross Wednesday night or early Thursday.
This will be a moisture-starved system and the bulk of the forcing
aloft will pass to our north/northeast. Still, a few snow showers may
accompany the front with a brief window lake effect snow into Thursday
as 850mb temperatures briefly bottom out at -13 to -16C. Overall,
guidance has trended towards a bit more of a glancing blow with this
cold airmass, leading to lower confidence in impactful lake effect.

High pressure brings brief quiet weather for Thursday night and early
Friday. All models have various shortwaves riding out of the Plains
and across the Ohio Valley/southern Great Lakes between later Friday
and Sunday, though details such as the timing/track/intensity of each
are very uncertain at this time range in what looks to be a fast-
moving weather pattern. Generally colder weather will continue, with
potential for measurable snow or mixed precip at some point but low
confidence in the when, where, or how much at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/...
Aloft, flow will vary between WSW`erly and WNW`erly over our
region through 18Z/Mon. Multiple disturbances will move generally
E`ward for the time being. However, after ~09Z/Mon, a ridge
will begin to build E`ward across our region. At the surface, an
E`ward-moving cold front exited our region just recently as of
17:40Z/Sun. Behind the front, a trough lingers over our region
as a secondary trough axis sweeps SE`ward across northern OH and
NW PA between ~23Z/Sun and ~09Z/Mon. Behind the trough axis, a
ridge builds slowly from the north-central United States through
18Z/Mon.

Ahead of the surface trough axis, our surface winds will be
SW`erly to W`erly around 15 to 25 knots and gust up to about 25
to 35 knots. Behind the trough axis, NW`erly winds around 5 to
15 knots are expected. These NW`erly winds should become
lighter and variable in direction by daybreak Monday as the
large-scale MSLP gradient relaxes in response to the building
ridge.

Scattered to widespread low-level clouds are expected through
the TAF period. Resulting ceilings are expected to be mainly in
the 1kft to 3kft AGL range. Primarily dry weather and VFR
visibility are expected. However, snow showers, steady to heavy
at times due, in part to lake-enhancement, are expected roughly
along and northeast of a KLPR to KPHD line late this afternoon
through the wee hours of Monday morning as the surface trough
axis sweeps generally SE`ward across Lake Erie and our region.
In addition, periods of lake-effect showers, mainly in the form
of snow and steady to heavy at times, are expected to stream
generally NE`ward over/downwind of Lake Erie this afternoon
before streaming generally E`ward early this evening and then
generally SE`ward later this evening through late Monday
morning. The lake-effect precip will impact the snowbelt of NE
OH/NW PA and vicinity before dissipating by midday Monday in
response to the building ridge. Visibility will primarily range
between MVFR and LIFR in precip. Brief IFR ceilings may accompany
heavier precip.

Outlook...Non-VFR with periods of snow are expected Monday night
through this Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Gale Warning in effect for U.S. waters:
- Until 7 PM EST this evening from Reno Beach to Willowick
- Until 1 AM Monday from Willowick to Buffalo

Low Water Advisory in effect for U.S. waters for ongoing seiche:
- Until 10 PM this evening from Maumee Bay to Vermilion

Small Craft Advisory in effect for nearshore U.S. waters:
- Until 1 AM Monday from Maumee Bay to Reno Beach

A potent low wobbles NE`ward from near Georgian Bay late this
afternoon to near the mouth of the St. Lawrence River by daybreak
Monday and weakens slowly. Behind the low, a trailing trough axis
sweeps SE`ward across Lake Erie this evening. In response, SW`erly
winds around 25 to 40 knots persist this afternoon. SW`erly winds
then ease to around 20 to 35 knots this evening before shifting to
NW`erly and easing further to 10 to 30 knots by midnight tonight in
response to the trough axis passage. During the wee hours of Monday
morning, NW`erly winds ease further to 5 to 15 knots by daybreak as
a ridge builds from the north-central U.S. Waves as large as 10 to
16 feet late this afternoon are forecast to subside to 4 feet or
less by daybreak Monday.

On Monday, the ridge will move E`ward across Lake Erie. Accordingly,
winds trend 5 to 10 knots and variable in direction. Any lingering 4
footers will subside to 2 feet or less by late morning. During
Monday night through Tuesday, a low should deepen as it wobbles
NE`ward from the northwestern Gulf to Atlantic waters east of the
Delmarva Peninsula and extends a trough over Lake Erie. Winds around
5 to 15 knots should vary between mainly S`erly and NW`erly over
Lake Erie. Waves of 3 feet or less are expected.

On Tuesday night through Wednesday, another ridge should build from
the Lower OH Valley and vicinity as a cold front approaches Lake
Erie from the northwest. The interaction between the building ridge
and frontal trough should allow mainly NW`erly winds to back to
SW`erly and freshen to around 10 to 20 knots Tuesday night as waves
build to as large as 3 to 5 feet (largest waves expected in open
waters of the central and eastern basins). On Wednesday, the same
interaction should allow SW`erly winds to freshen further to around
20 to 30 knots. Waves as large as 5 to 10 feet are expected and a
Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed.

The cold front should sweep SE`ward across Lake Erie Wednesday
night. SW`erly winds around 20 to 30 knots and waves as large as 5
to 10 feet are expected ahead of the front. Behind the front, W`erly
to NW`erly winds should ease to around 15 to 25 knots overnight
Wednesday night through Thursday as a ridge builds from the Upper
Midwest. This slight easing of winds should contribute to waves
subsiding to 7 feet or less by sunset Thursday evening.

The aforementioned ridge should crest E`ward over Lake Erie Thursday
night and begin to exit slowly toward the northeast U.S. and
vicinity on Friday. Accordingly, W`erly to NW`erly winds should back
gradually to S`erly to SW`erly. Wind speeds should be mainly 10 to
20 knots, but may flirt with 25 knots at times as the ridge
interacts with yet another cold front and associated trough axis
forecast to approach Lake Erie from the northwest. Waves should
subside to 4 feet or less by daybreak Friday. On Friday, waves as
large as 3 to 6 feet are expected. Largest waves are expected in the
open waters of the central and eastern basins based on forecast
fetch.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for PAZ002.
MARINE...Low Water Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ142>144-
     162>164.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ142.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LEZ143>146-
     163>166.
     Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for LEZ147>149-167>169.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Sullivan
NEAR TERM...Sullivan
SHORT TERM...Sullivan
LONG TERM...Sullivan
AVIATION...Jaszka
MARINE...Jaszka