Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
316 FXUS64 KCRP 161101 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 601 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 - Low chances (15-25%) for isolated streamer showers moving onshore from the western Gulf along the Coastal Bend Thursday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 East to southeast onshore flow will bring a gradual increase in surface moisture over the next couple of days. In the short term, this means we could see a few streamer showers along the coast Thursday morning as moisture convergence approaches 50 g/kg/12hr, especially north of Port Aransas. As is typical, most of these will produce only very light rainfall amounts and should be very brief. We`ll also have a noticeable increase in humidity as dewpoints approach 70 near the coast. An inverted trough along the coast Thursday will be absorbed into an approaching mid-level trough Thursday night into Friday. The energy associated with the trough will bring increased rain chances, but mainly over the offshore waters Thursday night and Friday. We will maintain a 10-20% probability of precip in the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. For the weekend we`ll be watching a cold front approach...and then watching it most likely stall north of our area, once again leaving us waiting for our first good cool down of the fall. That said, the ECMWF deterministic run and ensembles are a little farther south with it than previous runs have been, so will keep a little bit of hope that we could see it push through. Regardless of if it pushes through, the airmass ahead of it is too dry to bring any real chance for rainfall, and temperatures are not likely to drop much for the daytime, but a decrease in humidity should bring slightly cooler overnight lows, mainly inland. Return southeasterly flow returns by early next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Patchy fog is still possible for ALI and VCT which could reduce visibility to MVFR. Otherwise, expect primarily VFR conditions through the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025 Onshore flow will generally be gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through Sunday. A frontal boundary nearing the coast on Sunday will allow for a brief opportunity for winds to be more out of the northeast on Sunday at moderate strength. Low rain chances begin from early Thursday morning (15-25%) and then increase to moderate chances (25-35%) on Friday. Onshore flow returns early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% through most of the period and the ERC forecast will be at 70-90th percentile across the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country. A boundary moving into the area Sunday could bring low RH values in the Brush country for the day. However, a generally weak east to southeast wind should preclude any fire weather threats. Rain chances are very low throughout the period and generally remain under a wetting rain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 86 70 89 72 / 10 0 10 0 Victoria 86 66 88 69 / 10 0 40 0 Laredo 92 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 90 66 93 68 / 0 0 10 0 Rockport 87 73 87 75 / 10 10 30 10 Cotulla 92 67 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 88 67 91 68 / 0 0 10 0 Navy Corpus 84 76 86 77 / 10 10 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...PH/83 AVIATION...LS/77