Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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316
FXUS64 KCRP 161101
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
601 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

 - Low chances (15-25%) for isolated streamer showers moving
   onshore from the western Gulf along the Coastal Bend Thursday
   morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

East to southeast onshore flow will bring a gradual increase in
surface moisture over the next couple of days. In the short term,
this means we could see a few streamer showers along the coast
Thursday morning as moisture convergence approaches 50 g/kg/12hr,
especially north of Port Aransas. As is typical, most of these
will produce only very light rainfall amounts and should be very
brief. We`ll also have a noticeable increase in humidity as
dewpoints approach 70 near the coast. An inverted trough along the
coast Thursday will be absorbed into an approaching mid-level
trough Thursday night into Friday. The energy associated with the
trough will bring increased rain chances, but mainly over the
offshore waters Thursday night and Friday. We will maintain a
10-20% probability of precip in the northern Coastal Bend and
Victoria Crossroads.

For the weekend we`ll be watching a cold front approach...and then
watching it most likely stall north of our area, once again leaving
us waiting for our first good cool down of the fall.  That said, the
ECMWF deterministic run and ensembles are a little farther south
with it than previous runs have been, so will keep a little bit of
hope that we could see it push through.  Regardless of if it pushes
through, the airmass ahead of it is too dry to bring any real chance
for rainfall, and temperatures are not likely to drop much for the
daytime, but a decrease in humidity should bring slightly cooler
overnight lows, mainly inland.  Return southeasterly flow returns by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Patchy fog is still possible for ALI and VCT which could reduce
visibility to MVFR. Otherwise, expect primarily VFR conditions
through the TAF cycle.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1206 AM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Onshore flow will generally be gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) through
Sunday. A frontal boundary nearing the coast on Sunday will
allow for a brief opportunity for winds to be more out of the
northeast on Sunday at moderate strength. Low rain chances begin
from early Thursday morning (15-25%) and then increase to moderate
chances (25-35%) on Friday. Onshore flow returns early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Minimum RH values will generally remain above 30% through most of
the period and the ERC forecast will be at 70-90th percentile across
the inland Coastal Plains and Brush Country.  A boundary moving into
the area Sunday could bring low RH values in the Brush country for
the day.  However, a generally weak east to southeast wind should
preclude any fire weather threats. Rain chances are very low
throughout the period and generally remain under a wetting rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    86  70  89  72 /  10   0  10   0
Victoria          86  66  88  69 /  10   0  40   0
Laredo            92  69  94  71 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             90  66  93  68 /   0   0  10   0
Rockport          87  73  87  75 /  10  10  30  10
Cotulla           92  67  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        88  67  91  68 /   0   0  10   0
Navy Corpus       84  76  86  77 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


DISCUSSION...PH/83
AVIATION...LS/77