620
FXUS64 KCRP 101915
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
115 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1255 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions Tuesday, Red Flag
  Warning in effect for Brush Country. Elevated fire weather
  conditions continue into Wednesday.

- Medium to high (40-70%) chance for morning low temperatures in
  the 30s over northern tier counties. Near 0% chance for any
  freezing temperatures.

- Pacific cold front early next week, bringing low rain chances
  over the Victoria Crossroads this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Elevated to critical fire weather concerns remains the primary
concern over South Texas this afternoon as relative humidity has
dropped to 15-30% across the entire area. Fortunately, the winds
aren`t as strong limiting the fire weather threat. Although the
winds shift southerly tomorrow (Tuesday), minimum relative
humidity will still fall below 30% over the western Brush Country
and winds gusting over 20 mph will promote critical fire weather
conditions. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for
McMullen, Duval, La Salle, and Webb Counties from 10 AM to 6 PM
Tuesday. Elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country
will likely develop Wednesday afternoon before enough moisture
builds into the region to negate fire weather concerns through the
upcoming weekend.

Models have trended slightly warmer for Tuesday morning low
temperatures. Chances for any freezing temperatures have dropped
to near 0 and the medium to high (40-70%) chance for lows in the
30s are very much limited to the northern counties stretching from
La Salle to Victoria. Clear skies, calm winds (much calmer than
this morning), and dry air will allow for efficient radiational
cooling. Decided to mix in NBM and CONSShort for temperatures
through Tuesday.

Warming trend will dominate Wednesday through Saturday with highs
well into the 80s to around 90 west and lows in the mid to upper
60s. A Pacific cold front is on track to pass through South Texas
west to each early next week, either Sunday or Monday. There is a
low (20-40%) chance of showers and thunderstorms this weekend,
mainly over the Victoria Crossroads. Not as much cold air
advection given the Pacific source but drier air will allow for
cooler lows in the 50s and highs limited to the low-mid 80s given
the offshore flow.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across South Texas through 18Z Tuesday
with a wind-driven forecast. North to northeasterly winds will
generally range from 5-15 knots this afternoon before decreasing
below 5 knots becoming variable overnight into the early morning
hours Tuesday. Southerly flow returns by mid-late morning Tuesday,
increasing winds to around 10-15 knots. No chances for rain or
fog under mostly clear skies.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Winds have diminished below 20 knots for the bays and therefore
the Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled. The Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the open waters for northerly winds
around 20 knots and seas over 6 feet. Conditions are expected to
improve by this evening, with winds below 20 knots and seas
subsiding below 6 feet. Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow
returns Tuesday, strengthening to a south to southeasterly fresh
to strong breeze (BF 5-6) Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Moderate to fresh breeze will follow to close out the work week.
South to southeasterly flow will strengthen to a strong breeze
again this weekend, in advance of an Pacific cold front that will
shift winds northwesterly in the wake.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1255 PM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will continue each
afternoon through Wednesday, with worst conditions over the Brush
Country. Winds strengthen slightly Tuesday and with minimum relative
humidity falling below 30%, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for
McMullen, La Salle, Webb, and Duval counties for Tuesday from 10 AM
to 6 PM CST. Elsewhere towards the inland coastal county portions, a
Fire Danger Statement has been issued. Another elevated fire weather
day is expected over the Brush Country on Wednesday. Enough moisture
will return by the latter half of the week to negate fire weather
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    45  75  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          37  74  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            43  76  56  86 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             40  77  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          53  73  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           38  76  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        41  76  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       56  73  68  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for TXZ229-230-
     239-240.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ250-255-
     270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...EMF/94
AVIATION...EMF/94