Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
067 FXUS64 KCRP 300540 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1240 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 - Warm through Friday before rain chances increase across the coastal zones (20-30% PoPs). && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 At the jet stream-level, a shortwave is moving through Texas, providing a sufficient amount of divergence aloft to support a narrow band of showers. Given that PWATs (<1.5" as observed on the 00Z 30Sep soundings from KCRP and KDRT). High res models continue to show this band continuing through South Texas through sunrise before moving further into southeast Texas. PoPs were capped at 15% just to highlight that any raindrop making it to the ground will be few in between, and more than not, any shower will likely just produce virga. As this upper-level disturbance moves to the east throughout the remainder of the morning, so too will the clouds, with mostly clear skies expected by the afternoon. From mid-week, a weak 300 hPa trough will move off the Rockies, with the southern extent slowing down and meandering across the Southern US, allowing for a mid-level low to remain present over the Gulf Coast. What this means for us locally is that rain chances will increase across the open waters from Friday (30-50% chance) with coastal zones having the greatest chances (20-30%) in the afternoon enhanced by the seabreeze and decreasing further inland. While still too early to tell definitive amounts, PWATs will generally range from 1.3-1.5" (generally closer to the 50th percentile for this time of year), meaning tropical-like washout of storms are not likely. High temperatures across the Brush Country will max out in the upper 90s through Thursday with all locations across South Texas generally remaining in the low to mid-90s through the upcoming week. Low temperatures generally remain in the upper 60s for inland locations through Sunday, but with the gradual increase in dewpoints in the latter half of the forecast period, so too will morning lows back into the low 70s. It will be worth monitoring the wind/wave forecast on Friday as increasing northeasterly winds and increased wave periods may result in an increased rip risk. While still too soon to tell, the Full Moon will fall between Saturday and Monday, so this increase in wind/swell energy may also rise the coastal flooding risk with the afternoon high tides, so this will be monitored as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 VFR conditions expected to prevail with light and variable winds overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1238 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025 Winds will be predominately gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) out of the northeast with 2-3 ft seas. By Friday, these winds increase to more moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) strength and seas increasing to 3-5 ft. This continues through the upcoming week with seas remaining near 3 ft from Monday. Daily rain chances (30-50%) start Friday and continue through the upcoming week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 69 93 71 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 94 66 95 68 / 20 0 0 0 Laredo 95 70 97 71 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 95 66 96 67 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 91 72 91 74 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 95 67 97 69 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 92 66 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 88 75 88 76 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AE/82 AVIATION...LS/77