308
FXUS64 KCRP 181802
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
102 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

No changes to watchs and warnings at this time. Overall forecast
looks on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Short term forecast remains on PTC1. Tropical Storm watches have
been upgraded to Tropical Storm warnings this morning as we wait on
a low level closed circulation to develop. Quite a bit of convection
noted with it early this morning, stretching north from the Yucatan
toward the Texas/Louisiana border. Isolated convection does spread
toward the Middle Texas coast, but not seeing much activity at this
time. Expect that to increase as this system drifts eastward over
the next couple of days. Satellite derived PWAT values indicate PWAT
values around 1.8" along the coast this morning with 2.2 inches a
bit offshore before we lose the data to cloud cover. Model guidance
still indicates we could approach 3 inches by Wednesday morning.
Along those lines, heavy rain continues to be the primary concern
with this system, and rainfall totals of 6-9" are expected along the
Coastal Bend with localized higher amounts possible where some of
the healthier bands set up. Rainfall rates will be a concern with 2-
3"/hour rates increasing the concern for flash flooding. Most
widespread/heaviest convection looks to be after midnight Tuesday
night through late Wednesday.

The next notable impact from this system will be coastal flooding.
We`re already seeing water reaching the dunes along the coast (as
best we can in the dark anyway). Tide levels at Port Aransas have
topped 2" MSL which is already coastal flood advisory criteria. We
are likely to see another foot or two on top of this by tonight into
Wednesday. These levels would completely shut off beach roads, and
push water over many low/coastal flood prone areas along the bays
including Rockport, North Beach and Port O`Connor. Tide levels will
begin to subside on Thursday.

Not much has changed with the wind forecast. Highest winds
associated with system remain displaced well north of the center, so
while landfall of an eventual cyclone is expected to be in Mexico,
the strongest winds will be pushing into the Middle Texas Coast.
Over the waters, winds gusting to 55 mph or higher are possible, but
winds will quickly diminish over land, with 45 to 50 mph gusts
possible along the coast, especially within some of the convective
bands.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Monday)
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

By late Thursday into Thursday night we`ll be winding down impacts
from the PTC, though moisture will linger and we`ll keep rain
chances through at least Friday, and possibly into the weekend as
the surface ridge remains over the eastern US instead of the
southeastern US, allowing general weakness to persist over the
western Gulf. High temperatures that will be in the low to mid-80s
for mid- week will creep back up into the 90s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VFR ceilings will prevail across the area through this evening
with showers and thunderstorms possible intermittently for the
eastern TAF sites. MVFR ceilings will roll in after 00Z and linger
through tomorrow with brief periods of IFR during the morning
hours. Winds are expected to remain gusty through the remainder
of the period. Coverage for precipitation tomorrow will gradually
increase overnight and affect all sites by tomorrow morning.
Expect reduce visibilities and gusty with any passing shower or
storm.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 413 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect. Onshore winds will
continue to increase today through Wednesday. Strong to very strong
winds today approach gale force tonight and tomorrow. Gale force
gusts are expected. Wave heights are expected to increase to 10-15
feet occasionally up to 18 feet across the coastal waters Tuesday
through Thursday. Deep moisture will move into the area resulting in
widespread showers and thunderstorms through Thursday. Rain chances
trend down slightly heading into the weekend but we will still hold
onto moderate rain chances through the weekend

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    91  77  84  79 /  50  80 100  90
Victoria          91  74  81  77 /  40  70 100  70
Laredo            99  78  86  76 /  20  10  90  90
Alice             94  76  83  77 /  50  60 100  90
Rockport          92  80  89  81 /  60  90 100  90
Cotulla           99  79  86  77 /  20  10  80  90
Kingsville        93  76  83  78 /  60  70 100 100
Navy Corpus       90  80  87  82 /  60  90 100 100

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ242>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday
     afternoon for TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447.

     Coastal Flood Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ245-342>345-
     347-442-443-447.

     High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for TXZ345-442-
     443-447.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TE
LONG TERM....PH
AVIATION...NP/92