783
FXUS64 KCRP 101113
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
513 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 512 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

- Elevated to Near Critical fire weather conditions continue
  through this evening across South Texas. Elevated fire weather
  persists into midweek.

- Hazardous seas and Gale-force winds through early this morning.
  Small Craft Advisory conditions will remain through this evening.

- Medium to high (40-80%) chance for morning low temperatures in
  the 30s over northern tier counties. Low (10-20%) chance of
  brief freezing temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Expect today to be much cooler behind the front with highs only
topping out in the 60s across South Texas. The drier conditions
remain in place across the region, and winds are expected to subside
by this late this afternoon into the evening. While winds aren`t
high enough to warrant Red Flag Conditions, a Fire Danger Statement
was issued as elevated fire weather conditions are likely Monday.
Onshore flow doesn`t return until Tuesday which will allow moisture
to filter back into the region. Therefore, at least elevated fire
weather conditions will be possible through mid week.

With the presence of drier conditions across South Texas and winds
tapering off by this evening, the environment will likely promote
 radiational cooling. This will allow temperatures to dip
into the 30s across much of the area Monday night with 40s to the
south and along the coast. NBM probs still maintains a high 40-80%
chance for temperatures to drop into the 30s across the northern
counties. There will be a low chance that we will see widespread
freezing temperatures, though in our usual drainage areas it will
definitely be possible.

In terms of the marine conditions, the aforementioned Gale Warning
will transition at 12Z to a Small Craft Advisory across all of the
gulf waters and bays. Conditions should improve by this evening as
winds and seas gradually diminish.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 512 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

VFR conditions will continue through this TAF cycle with moderate
to gusty winds hanging around through mid morning. Light winds
will prevail from this afternoon through the overnight hours
tomorrow night shifting to the east to southeast between 23-02z.



&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

A Small Craft Advisory over the bays remains in effect through 3
PM today for winds of 15-25 knots and gusts nearing Gale-force.
The Gale Warning remains in effect for the open waters through 8
AM this morning, before being replaced by a Small Craft Advisory
through 6 PM this evening. Conditions are expected to improve by
this evening, with winds below 20 knots and seas subsiding below
7 feet. Gentle to moderate (BF 3-4) onshore flow returns Tuesday,
strengthening to a south to southeasterly fresh to strong breeze
(BF 5-6) Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Moderate to fresh
breeze will follow to close out the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1222 AM CST Mon Nov 10 2025

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will remain across
the region, with relative humidity nearing its minimum between 12-
30% across South Texas. Winds have tempered down though can be
strong at times out of the northeast winds of 10-20 mph with gusts
to 30 mph. Hence a Fire Danger Statement will go into effect at 9 AM
through 9 PM across South Texas. Onshore flow returns Tuesday but
elevated fire weather conditions may persist over the Brush Country
during the afternoon Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum relative
humidity rises above 30% late in the week, negating fire weather
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    64  41  75  60 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria          63  34  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
Laredo            68  43  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
Alice             67  37  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          65  51  74  65 /   0   0   0   0
Cotulla           67  38  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville        66  35  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       64  53  74  67 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ231-
     232-236-237.

     Gale Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ250-255-270-275.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ250-255-
     270-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...NP/92
AVIATION...JCP/84