290
FXUS64 KCRP 102005
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
305 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chance (15-30%) showers and thunderstorms tonight
through Saturday night.

A diffuse cold front that has either moved through or is just moving
through the region will continue over the region. The wind direction
and trough is south of BRO, while the thermal and moisture gradient
is just starting to move into the northern Brush Country and the
Victoria Crossroads. If you use the 850 temperatures as a proxy, the
GFS has the front part way through the Brush Country and the Rio
Grande Plains by 12z/Sat, while the ECMWF holds the front back to
the northwest. In either case, the front will slowly move through or
fizzle over the next 36 hours. This leads to the chance of showers
and thunderstorms, especially with PWAT values of 1.5-1.8"  over the
region. Saturday night, the a 500 mb shortwave trough begins to move
east into west Texas, but at this point it looks like the
precipitation will stay out until later on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Key Messages:

- Low to moderate chance for showers and storms through Monday

An unsettled pattern will be in place through Sunday and Monday as a
mid-level low pressure center moves out of the Rockies and into the
Central US. Shortwaves rotating through the flow associated with
this low will help to give us some rain chances, though the best
rain chances will continue to be over northern parts of our forecast
area (mainly the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads.
Moisture will be streaming northward with continued low level
southeasterly flow. PWAT values approach 2" for eastern portions of
our area, but a CAP in place will limit thunderstorm activity.
Higher resolution guidance that goes out through Sunday shows little
activity over our area. Another low end (20-30%) rain chance returns
Thursday as the ridge breaks down and we may actually get another
front approaching the area Friday.

Mid-level ridging builds for the middle part of the week with
warming temperatures and continued high dewpoints leading to
uncomfortable humidity. Heat index values around or slightly above
100 will be expected Monday through Thursday while high temperatures
will be in the 90s for much of the area, with mid and upper 80s
northeast. Monday looks like the hottest day west with temps at or
slightly above 100 in the Rio Grande Plains.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

The slow moving cold front that has been fizzling, still has
enough energy to help produce clouds over most of south Texas.
While the drier air is expected to filter into the region, the
moisture will continue for another night, except VCT which looks
like it has gotten into the drier air, and should remain VFR
through the next 24 hours. All of the other TAF sites will remain
VFR to MVFR and back, with ALI and CRP running a risk (15-25%) of
IFR CIGs as the moisture remains. Otherwise there is a 30% chance
of showers and thunderstorms at ALI and CRP with the proximity of
the moisture and the weakening boundary.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

Weak to moderate northeasterly flow is expected to persist
through Saturday before veering more easterly. Patchy fog and haze
will continue to impact the waters ahead of the boundary. There
is a 15-25% chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday and
Saturday night. Weak to moderate southeasterly flow will continue
Sunday through late in the week. There is a 20-50% chance of
showers and thunderstorms both Sunday and Monday. Drier conditions
are in store by Tuesday. Low end rain chances return by late
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    75  85  75  89 /  30  10  20  30
Victoria          70  86  72  86 /  10  10  20  50
Laredo            75  90  76  96 /  20  20  30  10
Alice             73  86  74  92 /  30  20  20  30
Rockport          75  85  76  85 /  10  10  10  30
Cotulla           75  87  75  93 /  20  20  30  20
Kingsville        74  85  75  90 /  30  20  20  30
Navy Corpus       78  85  77  87 /  30  20  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JSL/86
LONG TERM....PH/83
AVIATION...JSL