Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
311 FXUS64 KCRP 230604 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1204 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 - Scattered showers and storms today associated with a lingering weak front. - Another system to bring showers and thunderstorms on Monday to northern portions of the area. - A stronger cold front should push through by midweek, bringing noticeably cooler and drier conditions just in time for Thanksgiving. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 A lingering weak frontal boundary will continue to promote isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Limited instability and only moderate moisture should keep rainfall amounts generally below 0.50 inch. By afternoon, strengthening onshore flow will lift the boundary back to the north, allowing warmer and more humid air to spread inland. This airmass will support a gradual warming trend, with highs on Monday and Tuesday climbing well above seasonal averages. By early next week, a deep upper-level trough shifts from the Four Corners into the Plains. Strengthening southeasterly flow ahead of this system will draw the warm front farther north and pull deeper moisture into the region. However, the stronger forcing and core of an LLJ will remain displaced to the north of the CWA. As a result, only, low chances for showers and a few thunderstorms are expected Monday, mainly across our northernmost counties, while the better rain chances remain well to our north. The most notable change to the local forecast arrives midweek as a cold front sweeps through the area Wednesday morning. This front will usher in a cooler and slightly drier airmass with ensemble guidance placing high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday in the low to mid-70s. While the coldest air will stay north of our region, inland lows may dip into the 40s by Thursday morning, with 50s elsewhere. The front itself will bring only brief, low-end rain chances, and no meaningful drought relief is expected. Beyond midweek, stable conditions are in store as a cooler, drier pattern settles in. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Tricky TAF forecast for this period as showers and a few thunderstorms develop and move across South Texas. Rain has fallen over large portions of the area which, while very welcome, could lead to some patchy fog. The most likely scenario is that we will continue with mostly MVFR/IFR ceilings across the area, with MVFR visibility generally confined to convection. Convection will continue through the TAF period. Outside of any convection, expect MVFR/VFR conditions. && .MARINE... Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible today as a quasi-stationary front is draped over the area. Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) east-southeasterly winds with occasional strong (BF 6) gusts will continue through Monday night ahead of the next approaching system. A brief reprieve is expected on Tuesday with a gentle breeze (BF 3) before a stronger front is forecast to move offshore by midweek, turning winds to the north-northeast and increasing flow to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) once again. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1203 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025 Fire weather concerns will remain low through most of the period, as minimum relative humidity values stay above 40% across the region. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible through the next few days, but mainly light amounts are expected. Winds will increase today through Monday to approximately 10-15 mph with higher gusts between 20-25 mph due to an enhanced low-level jet and another approaching frontal boundary. This system could result in additional low-end rain chances for our northern zones through midweek before a stronger front surges southward. In the wake of the passing front, minimum relative humidity is expected to fall to around 30-35% across portions of the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. However, lighter winds post-front should keep fire weather concerns at bay. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 81 71 85 67 / 50 0 10 10 Victoria 78 66 84 63 / 20 10 30 50 Laredo 87 71 85 64 / 30 0 0 0 Alice 82 68 89 64 / 50 0 10 10 Rockport 81 73 84 69 / 50 10 10 30 Cotulla 79 69 84 59 / 40 10 20 0 Kingsville 81 69 87 66 / 50 0 10 10 Navy Corpus 80 75 82 72 / 60 10 10 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...LS/77