Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
888 FXUS64 KCRP 271053 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 453 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 450 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 - Low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday, greatest chances over the Victoria Crossroads - Below normal temperatures expected following a strong cold front Sunday morning, coldest Monday night and Tuesday night && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Happy Thanksgiving! Enjoy the beautiful weather with partly cloudy skies and highs in the low to mid 70s today! Following the cold front yesterday morning, mostly clear skies with lingering upper- level clouds and weak northeasterly winds will allow for temperatures to fall near seasonal normal ranging from the mid- upper 40s northward to the mid 50s along the coast and Rio Grande early this morning. Rain- free conditions are expected through Thursday night before onshore flow returns Friday, increasing moisture. Moisture climbing above the 75th percentile, weak coastal trough, and mid- level shortwave will return low rain chances across the area on Friday. An unsettled pattern of weak mid-level disturbances will allow for additional shower and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) through Saturday night ahead of our next cold front. Our next cold front remains in good model agreement with passage Sunday morning and efficient cold air advection filtering in its wake. Meanwhile, a trailing mid-level axis of positive vorticity advection (PVA) will remain stretched across South Texas, leading to cloudy conditions and low to medium rain chances through Monday night before a reinforcing surge of high pressure pushes through Tuesday, filtering in drier air and diminishing rain chances. Onshore flow is progged to return Wednesday as the surface high pressure shifts eastward over the SE CONUS. It`ll truly feel like the start of the meteorological winter in South Texas, waking up with temperatures in the 40s across the region early Monday morning. Cloudy skies and CAA will limit highs in the 50s Monday afternoon! Similar highs, maybe a couple degrees warmer expected on Tuesday. Monday night and Tuesday night will be our coldest low temperatures, ranging from the mid-upper 30s over our northern counties to the mid 40s along the coast and Rio Grande. Likely due to the Canadian model, NBM probs do indicate a very low 15% chance for freezing temperatures early Tuesday morning over our northern counties stretching from La Salle to Victoria. Temperatures warm back up to around 70 Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 A mid-level cloud deck across the Rio Grande Plains and Brush Country is resulting in CIGs hovering between 3.5k and 5k ft AGL. Added prevailing lines in KLRD for MVFR CIGs at that terminal. This cloud deck will stick around the region through the TAF cycle. && .MARINE... Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) east to northeasterly flow will persist through Thursday night, before restrengthening out of the southeast Friday, causing a fresh to strong breeze to persist through Saturday night. Another cold front is expected to pass through Sunday morning, leading to strong to near Gale (BF 6-7) north to northeasterly winds in the wake, diminishing to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) Sunday night into Tuesday. Low rain chances Friday will increase to a medium to high chance of 50-80% Saturday through Monday night, then decrease to a low chance Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Minimum relative humidity will remain above 30% into early next week. There is a low to medium chance for showers and thunderstorms Friday through Monday, with greatest chances over the Victoria Crossroads. Although a cold front will pass through Sunday morning with a reinforcing surge of high pressure on Tuesday, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. Below normal temperatures dominate into the middle of next week following the cold front Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 73 60 74 67 / 0 0 20 30 Victoria 70 48 73 62 / 0 0 10 40 Laredo 71 62 74 66 / 0 10 30 10 Alice 73 55 75 64 / 0 0 20 20 Rockport 73 61 76 68 / 0 0 10 40 Cotulla 70 56 71 64 / 0 0 30 30 Kingsville 74 59 75 66 / 0 0 20 20 Navy Corpus 73 66 75 70 / 0 0 20 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...EMF/94 AVIATION...AE/82