Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
214 FXUS64 KCRP 191135 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 535 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 530 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 - Low to medium rain chances into early next week, greater chances and focus over the Hill Country and North Texas. - Warmer than normal temperatures continue. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 A slow-moving Pacific storm system currently advancing into the Southwest CONUS will be the primary driver of an increasingly unsettled pattern across Texas through the end of the week. Moisture will continue to deepen across the region Wednesday (PWATs climbing toward 1.5-1.8 inches), with low clouds and very light streamer showers possible early in the day. By Wednesday afternoon, the upper low begins shifting east across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico, providing enough large-scale ascent to support isolated to scattered showers across portions of the region. As the upper low elongates Wednesday night into Thursday, forcing for ascent increases across the state. The cold front associated with this system will advance into Central and North Texas Thursday/Friday, although its southward progression is expected to slow as it approaches our CWA. The combination of the nearby frontal boundary, a pre-frontal surface trough, and above average moisture will favor an increase in shower and thunderstorm chances Thursday through Friday. Probabilities generally range from 30-50%, with the highest chances draped over portions of the northern Brush Country and Coastal Plains, as well as the Victoria Crossroads and eastern Coastal Bend. By the weekend, the residual boundary is expected to stall near or just north of the region, allowing for continued low to moderate rain chances (20-40%). As our next disturbance approaches early next week, the stalled boundary will likely lift northward as a warm front before a new cold front pushes through, reducing rain chances by midweek. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 530 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Poor aviation conditions continue to develop across area terminals this morning owing primarily to low ceilings. Conditions are forecast to improve to VFR levels around mid to late morning, with generally VFR then prevailing through early Thursday morning. A few streamer showers are still progged to move inland today, but confidence on location and timing remains too low at this time to be included in the TAFs. Winds will remain light and variable for a couple more hours, before becoming gusty at around 15-20 knots by the afternoon. Winds will decouple by the evening hours, becoming light again late tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) southeasterly flow will persist through the end of the week, with seas holding near 3-5 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible through Thursday before increasing in coverage late Thursday into Friday as a strong upper-level system approaches. By Friday and Saturday, wind direction may become more variable as a weak frontal boundary approaches the region, keeping daily chances for showers and thunderstorms in place through the weekend and early next week. By then, onshore flow will strengthen to fresh to strong (BF 5-6) ahead of the next passing frontal system. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025 Fire weather conditions are expected to remain minimal through early next week, as minimum relative humidity levels will be above 40% across the region. Winds are forecast to increase Wednesday in advance of an approaching frontal boundary, though the boundary itself is unlikely to make significant southward progress into South Texas. With abundant low-level moisture in place and the front lingering nearby, low to medium (30-50%) rain chances will continue through Friday before easing slightly (20-40%) over the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead into next week, another front is expected to sweep through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 86 71 84 71 / 10 20 40 10 Victoria 86 66 84 66 / 30 30 50 30 Laredo 92 72 88 70 / 10 10 30 10 Alice 90 68 88 67 / 10 20 40 10 Rockport 83 71 82 72 / 20 20 40 20 Cotulla 90 71 87 68 / 10 20 50 40 Kingsville 89 69 87 68 / 10 20 30 10 Navy Corpus 82 73 81 74 / 20 10 40 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...KRS/98 AVIATION...ANM/88