914
FXUS64 KCRP 241104
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
504 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 457 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- Another system to bring showers and thunderstorms on Monday to
  northern portions of the area.

- A stronger cold front should push through by midweek, bringing
  noticeably cooler and drier conditions just in time for
  Thanksgiving.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A brief lull in rainfall is expected through early Monday afternoon
as the system responsible for the past couple days of widespread
showers exits the region. On Monday, an upper-level trough moving
through the Plains will draw higher moisture northward and support
scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily north of us ahead of
an approaching cold front. While the strongest forcing remains north
of the area, portions of the northern Coastal Bend and Victoria
Crossroads may still see a few isolated showers and storms.
Precipitation activity should diminish by Monday night as the front
weakens and pushes eastward.

By midweek, high pressure spreads over the region, ushering in drier
and cooler conditions. We`ll see limited precipitation chances
Tuesday through Thursday, with only a low chance (20-30%) of showers
and storms possible across the southern CWA. Afternoon temperatures
will fall back toward seasonal levels by midweek, especially
following a reinforcing front expected to move through late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. This secondary front will be strong enough to
bring a brief return to fall-like conditions for Thanksgiving, with
morning lows ranging from the mid-40s to the 50s and highs generally
in the 60s to low 70s.

Looking ahead to the holiday weekend, onshore flow resumes Friday
allowing temperatures and humidity to gradually increase. Forecast
confidence decreases by next weekend, but increasing moisture and an
approaching upper-level disturbance may bring the next opportunity
for rain. For now, PoPs remain low given the uncertainty, though
trends suggest the best chances may develop over the eastern half of
the CWA where deeper moisture returns first.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

MVFR/VFR ceilings this morning will persist through mid to late
morning when south/southeasterly winds will pick up and VFR
conditions return. Most of South Texas will remain dry today,
though a few showers/storms are currently moving across the
northern Brush Country. A low chance of showers continues for this
afternoon across the Victoria Crossroads; have maintained a
PROB30 for VCT for thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening and
associated MVFR conditions. By Tuesday morning, expect patchy fog
will develop across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads so
have included a mention of MVFR fog for ALI and CRP, and a TEMPO
IFR fog for VCT.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

A brief lull in rain chances is expected tonight through much of the
day Monday before low to medium (20-50%) rain chances return Monday
night through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) east-
southeasterly winds, with occasional strong (BF 6) gusts, will
persist through Monday night ahead of the next approaching system.
These conditions have warranted the issuance of an SCA through
early Tuesday morning. Winds will ease on Tuesday, becoming light
to gentle (BF 2-3), before a stronger reinforcing front moves
offshore midweek. Behind the front, winds will shift to the north-
northeast and strengthen back to moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) with
intermittent strong (BF 6) gusts. This pattern is expected to hold
through Friday, after which onshore flow returns. Confidence
decreases heading into next weekend, but increasing moisture
associated with the renewed onshore flow and an approaching upper-
level disturbance may bring the next chance for rain along with
fresh to strong (BF 5-6) southeasterly winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1129 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain low through most of the period,
with minimum relative humidity holding above 40% across the region.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible over the next
few days, though rainfall amounts should remain light. Winds will
strengthen today to around 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20-25 mph, as
an enhanced low-level jet and an approaching frontal boundary
influence the area. Behind the front by midweek, minimum relative
humidity values are expected to fall to around 20-35% across
portions of the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains. However,
Energy Release Component (ERC) values in the 20-50th percentile
combined with lighter winds post-front should keep fire weather
concerns at bay.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    85  68  85  61 /  10  10  10  30
Victoria          85  64  85  53 /  30  30  10  10
Laredo            86  63  87  62 /   0   0   0  30
Alice             90  64  87  58 /  10  10  10  30
Rockport          84  70  84  61 /  20  10  10  30
Cotulla           83  57  85  58 /  10   0   0  20
Kingsville        89  66  86  60 /   0   0  10  40
Navy Corpus       82  72  82  64 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ231-232-
     250-270.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ236-
     237-255-275.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...KRS/98
AVIATION...LS/77