Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
715 FXXX12 KWNP 190031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 Jul 19 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at low levels with only C-class activity observed. Region 4136 (N21W50, Dkc/beta-gamma) produced the majority of the C-flare activity this period. Minor growth was observed in Region 4143 (N25W38, Dki/beta) while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Low-level solar activity is expected to continue, with M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares likely, and a slight chance for an isolated X-class (R3-Strong) flare over 19-21 Jul. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 10,272 pfu observed at 18/1730 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels throughout the period. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on 19-21 Jul. There is a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels through 21 Jul. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment remained mildly enhanced during the period due to continued, but waning, positive polarity CH HSS influence. The total magnetic field strength ranged between 5-7 nT, with the Bz component reaching as far south as -6 nT. Solar wind speeds gradually decreased throughout the period from a peak near 650 km/s to around 550 km/s. The phi remained mostly positive throughout the period. .Forecast... Elevated solar wind parameters are expected to continue but gradually weaken over 19 Jul as positive polarity CH HSS influence subsides. Ambient conditions are expected to prevail over 20-21 Jul. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels in response to positive polarity CH HSS influence. .Forecast... Quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated on 19 Jul as CH HSS influence gradually subsides. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to prevail over 20-21 Jul with the return of ambient solar wind conditions.