048
FXUS63 KDLH 261744
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1144 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy snow continues east of the US 53/I-85 corridor this
  morning, with a couple enhanced bands showing up across the
  Arrowhead and northwest Wisconsin. Blizzard conditions are
  possible along the South Shore. Strong winds also expected
  elsewhere could lead to blowing snow.

- Snow enhancement from a gravity wave and lake effect snow will
  lead to higher snow totals across northwest Wisconsin,
  particularly at higher elevations.

- After this system, cooler air is here to stay for the rest of
  the forecast period. Highs will be in the 20s and lows in the
  teens for the rest of the week. Low temperatures at or below
  zero are expected Sunday and Monday nights.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

A deepening surface low is moving through central WI this
morning, with significant snowfall ongoing along and east of
the US-53/I-35 corridor. Recent snowfall measurements at the
office indicate snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour continue where
enhanced banding is noted on radar. Back to the west, light snow
continues to fall from Grand Rapids to the Brainerd Lakes
region. Will see the back edge of snowfall move through north
central MN this morning, possible clearing the US-53 corridor in
MN as early as mid day. Surface winds area wide will remain
strong due to the tightened pressure gradient. This will cause
blowing snow and reduced vis even after snow ends. Have replaced
the Winter Storm Warning for the southwest counties with an
Advisory, as accumulations through the rest of the morning will
be 1-2 inches, but the strong winds will cause blowing snow and
vis reductions. Will maintain the other headlines as is for now.

The surface low will pivot to the northeast over the Michigan
UP this morning, with a north to south oriented LLJ strengthens
over the Arrowhead as the upper level low moves to our south.
This will enhance a gravity wave over western Lake Superior and
portions of northern Douglas and Bayfield counties, with
additional snowfall totals up to 10 inches possible in that
localized band. Further east, over portions of Ashland and Iron
counties, the lake effect snow machine will set in as deep
layer northwest winds persist across the lake. This will lead
to additional snowfall totals of 10 to 24 inches through
Thursday morning, with locally higher amounts. With strong
winds, gusting up to 45mph, blowing snow will reduce
visibilities, and will maintain the Blizzard Warning for the
counties along the South Shore.

Snow will end over the Arrowhead this afternoon and evening, and
over most of the northwest Wisconsin tonight. Drier air will
slide in from the west as surface high pressure slides southward
through the Plains. This will maintain cold northwest flow over
the Northland, bringing temperatures down to below average for
the end of the week. With active cyclonic flow over the area
Thursday, and winds crossing the lake, will keep a 20 pop in
for most of northwest Wisconsin outside of the active snow belt,
for light snow showers. Moisture might be shallow but lapse
rates steep within that saturated layer during the day.

The next system moves into the area for the weekend. Model
guidance continues to keep the open shortwave and surface low
well to our south, and therefore better dynamics are removed
from the area. Profiles do show deep saturation across the area,
but weaker lapse rates. Right now, best accumulations will be
across portions of northwest Wisconsin Saturday and Saturday
night, with a few inches possible. Another surge of cold air
arrives behind that system, that will bring our temperatures
down to 15 degrees below normal for early next week. Highs in
the teens and around or below 0F are possible.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1139 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

IFR to LIFR conditions in moderate to heavy snow and blowing
snow will continue across most of northwest Wisconsin into
tonight. MVFR to IFR conditions in light snow, blowing snow and
stratus will continue into this evening for northeast Minnesota.
Northwest wind gusts of 25-35 knots will also continue into
tonight across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. MVFR
stratus and scattered snow showers are expected on
Thanksgiving, with northwest winds gusting 20-25kts. Localized
pockets of IFR visibility are likely in the heavier snow
showers on Thanksgiving.


&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 305 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Strong north winds will continue this morning as a winter storm
system slowly moves east of the area, and become northwesterly
this afternoon. Gusts of 40-45kts are possible. Wave heights
will continue to build for a few hours this morning, especially
along the South Shore and Outer Apostles, and slowly subside
through the afternoon. Heights of 7-10 ft along the South Shore
and 12-16 ft around the Apostles and Bayfield Peninsula
remain possible. Gale Warnings are in effect for all western
Lake Superior near shore waters into Thursday morning.


For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for MNZ012-
     019>021-037-038.
WI...Blizzard Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ001-002.
     Blizzard Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for WIZ003-004.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ006>009.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM CST Thursday for LSZ121-140>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HA
AVIATION...PA
MARINE...HA