588
FXUS63 KDLH 150930
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
330 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain moves through the area this morning along a cold
  front. Expect skies to clear later today with noticeably
  cooler temps compared to yesterday.

- Elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions are expected
  today along a line from Pine County to Sawyer County as
  relative humidity drops into the upper 20% range and northwest
  winds gust 20 to 25 mph.

- A dry pattern settles over the area for much of the forecast period,
  with the next chance for widespread rain not arriving until
  late this upcoming week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Light rain showers have been moving through the CWA early this
morning as a cold front sweeps through. Most of the rain observed at
the surface early this morning has been occurring along and north of
U.S. 2, where low-level saturation has been higher compared to
locations farther south. This cold front and the associated precip
is expected to exit the CWA later this morning, with dry, cooler air
advecting into the area in the wake of this frontal passage. This
dry air will result in skies becoming clear by this afternoon across
the area.

Moderately deep mixing to around 800-850mb by the time of peak
diurnal heating this afternoon will bring at least a 50% chance for
min RH less than 35% along and south of U.S. 2. Within this portion
of the CWA, the area of greatest concern is the pine barrens of
Burnett County and eastern portions of Pine County, where there is a
40% chance for min RH today dropping below 30%. When combined with
breezy northwest winds of 20-25 mph this afternoon, this will lead
to elevated, if not near-critical, fire weather conditions today. A
Special Weather Statement is in effect today from Pine to Sawyer
Counties due to these elevated fire weather concerns, with an
expansion farther north and west potentially needed if RH trends
drier this morning.

The dry pattern that will be developing this afternoon is expected
to persist through the weekend as high pressure dominates and a
ridge slides east into the Upper Midwest. Temperatures will be
noticeably colder this weekend, with highs around 10-20 degrees
cooler today compared to yesterday and an additional 5-10 degrees
cooler on Sunday. The pattern remains benign until late Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning, as a shortwave trough moves from the
central Great Plains into far southern MN. Current expectations are
that this precip will largely remain south of the CWA. However,
there is still a 20-25% chance for a wintry mix along the southern
edge of the CWA. Overall impacts though are forecast to be minimal.

The next system of interest arrives into the Upper Midwest late this
week. Global models are in decent agreement regarding the
development of cutoff low pressure over California on Monday, which
will then begin propagating through the Four Corners region around
midweek and rejoin the 500mb pattern as a deep trough. This trough
will potentially develop into a Colorado Low, tapping into deep Gulf
moisture as it moves into the Midwest late Thursday into Friday.
This system does have the potential to miss our area entirely, but
global ensemble members suggest that it`s more likely than not that
portions of the CWA will see some precip. This will be a system to
keep an eye on, especially if models begin trending low pressure
centers farther north.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1138 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A cold front will be passing through the region early this morning,
bringing light VFR rain showers. Ahead of this cold front, LLWS will
continue to be possible in KHYR, which will be ending following the
frontal passage. Expect skies to clear later this morning as drier
air moves in with northwest winds becoming breezy.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 330 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Northwest winds will be increasing after sunrise today to 15 to 20
knots with gusts to 25 to 30 knots following a cold frontal passage.
These winds are expected to generate waves of 3 to 6 feet along the
Bayfield Peninsula and Outer Apostle Islands by this evening into
tonight. There remains a chance for gales along the North Shore
above Silver Bay and in the Outer Apostle Islands this evening, but
the potential is very low (10% chance). Winds will remain
northwesterly on Sunday and slowly diminish late in the afternoon
into the evening. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for all
nearshore waters of western Lake Superior. On Monday, surface high
pressure will keep winds at 10 knots or less.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to noon CST
     Sunday for LSZ121-147-148.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST
     Sunday for LSZ140-141-150.
     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM CST
     Sunday for LSZ142>146.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Unruh
AVIATION...Unruh
MARINE...Unruh