392
FXUS63 KDLH 050848
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
348 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and windy today with some showers/storms. Elevated fire
  weather conditions are expected.

- Cooler temperatures arrive Monday with frost possible Monday
  night and likely Tuesday night.

- Warming temperatures with mostly dry weather but a few
  intermittent rain chances late-week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Most places are seeing quiet weather early this morning, though a
few convective showers are affecting north-central Minnesota. These
are expected to move north in the next hour or two.

Strong warm air advection will keep warm air around today with
highs around 80 for most places. A tight pressure gradient ahead
of a cold front, which is expected to pass through this
afternoon and early evening, will create some strong winds
today. Southerly winds around 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph are
expected. Probabilities for wind gusts 45 mph or greater are
generally less than 50%, so wind advisories have not been
issued. With that said, some localized gusts to around 45 mph
can be expected, and if observations this morning end up being a
bit stronger than forecast, some wind advisories may be needed.
The combination of strong winds, min RH down to around 40%, and
drying fuels will create elevated fire weather conditions today
as well.

As the cold front passes through this afternoon, some showers
and thunderstorms are expected to develop along and in the
vicinity of the front. CAPE doesn`t look impressive enough for
any strong/severe storms, but some locally enhanced winds around
storms may be possible. Most of this rain should exit to the
east this evening with amounts up to a tenth of an inch or two
on the high end, mainly in northwest Wisconsin. A spotty shower
or two could linger into tonight, but the main story will be
winds switching over to the west/northwest after the front
passes through and temperatures quickly cooling off.

Temperatures will be ~15-20 degrees cooler on Monday with highs
in the 50s and 60s. Dry air will move in along with high
pressure. Areas of frost will be possible Monday night for the
usual inland areas especially. Widespread frost and below
freezing temperatures are expected Tuesday night with anywhere
from 30-80% chances for temperatures to fall below freezing for
pretty much everywhere except within a few miles of Lake
Superior.

Ridging is expected to develop across the west around mid-week
and spread into our region later this week. A warm air advection
regime with southerly flow is looking likely starting Wednesday.
Temperatures are expected to moderate a bit for the later part
of the week. A passing shortwave Thursday into Thursday night
could bring some light rain chances. Next weekend is looking
mild with the possibility for some rain as early as Sunday.
There may be a cold front early next week that could drop
temperatures again, in true fall fashion.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1251 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

LLWS is expected through the night and into Sunday morning.
Winds are expected to increase quickly during the morning,
ending the LLWS threat, but leading to sustained winds around
15-20 kt and gusts around 30 to nearly 40 kt at times. Winds are
expected to gradually shift from southerly to northwesterly
gradually this afternoon and early evening as a cold front
passes through. Following the cold front, wind speeds will
decrease a bit. LLWS is not expected Sunday night as winds are
expected to remain breezy into the night.

Showers and perhaps a stray storm could impact INL within the
next few hours as a cluster of showers moves northward.
Probability of thunder is ~25%. After that, a break in rain
chances. Scattered showers and possibly a few storms may develop
midday and into the afternoon, especially around HIB/DLH/HYR.
Temporary MVFR visibilities may be possible in heavier showers
or storms.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Southwest winds will continue to strengthen today. Gale Watches
have been replaced with Gale Warnings for most zones. Sand
Island to Bayfield to Chequamegon Bay to Saxon Harbor have been
replaced with Small Craft Advisories as winds are expected to be
a little lighter there. There is still a small chance that some
brief wind gusts to 35 kt could be possible this afternoon
around Saxon Harbor. If winds trend upward, an upgrade to a Gale
Warning may be needed there.

Winds become westerly this evening as a cold front passes
through. The front may bring some scattered showers and storms
(20-40% chance). Gusty winds and high wave heights will persist
through tonight, but lighten up by morning. Gusts should remain
at or below 20 kt for Monday. Late Monday night into Tuesday
morning, some locally stronger wind gusts to 25 kt may be
possible around Grand Marais, which could create hazardous
conditions for small craft.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for LSZ121-147-148.
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for
     LSZ140>146-150.
     Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for LSZ140>146-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JDS
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...JDS