937
FXUS63 KDLH 021004
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
504 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy dense fog in northwest Wisconsin will clear this
  morning.

- System bringing heavy rain for portions of the Northland and
  severe weather in north central Minnesota will arrive this
  evening and last through most of Monday.

- Quickly followed by another system that will bring more heavy
  rain and severe weather Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Lingering fog this morning in northwest Wisconsin with
visibilities as low as a quarter mile in some areas. As the sun
rises and low level mixing starts up, fog should dissipate by
mid morning. Before the excitement later today, lingering dry
air aloft and efficient mixing today will lead to dry
conditions, especially in the Arrowhead. Relative humidity as
low as 20% is possible in the Arrowhead and 30% elsewhere.

Convergence aloft from flow switching to the south and warm
and moist Gulf air being advected up to the Upper Midwest will
slowly saturate the lower and mid levels throughout the day. A
thin area of clouds and light rain showers are present in
central Minnesota this morning, but is battling dry air, so only
some sprinkles will hit the ground, if anything. Some showers
may reach the ground by early afternoon in northern
Itasca/Koochiching counties.

The main show begins later in the evening as a cold front with
a low pressure system in the Dakotas moving northeast to Canada.
Heightened instability (500-1500 J/kg) across western and north
central Minnesota along with marginal 0-6km shear (~30kts) and
lapse rates over 7 C/km for the afternoon will lead to isolated
to scattered severe storms throughout northeastern and north
central Minnesota. Damaging winds up to 70 mph will be the main
threat, but large hail and an isolated tornado are also
possible with these storms - especially earlier in the evening.
Once night falls, lower levels become stable, and the severe
threat will decrease a few hours after midnight. Then the line
of storms will become elevated and continue to make its way
through the area.

Heavy rainfall will also accompany this line. Predicted PW and
rainfall totals continue to decrease, but PWs up to an inch and
a half and up to an inch of rain is still possible (60%) where
the heaviest rain falls. Main areas that will see highest values
are the Brainerd Lakes area, decreasing as you head east. With
saturated soils from recent rainfall, isolated areas of ponding
to minor flooding may occur.

A sharp upper level trough dipping down into the Central Plains
will bring another round of severe weather and heavy rainfall.
This system has a similar setup to this one, but the system`s
arrival in the morning will lead to the severe threat being
further east. Global models show MUCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6km
shear in excess of 30 kts for most of the Northland, but
specifically across the southern half of our area. Heavy
rainfall is also expected, but models currently diverge on the
timing and placement of the heaviest rainfall. However, PWs once
again in excess of 1.5 inches could lead to widespread half inch
to an inch across the Northland.

By Wednesday, a blocking pattern seems to set up over the
western CONUS which will lead to temperatures cooler than
normal, gusty winds, and more chances for showers and storms
throughout the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions for tonight into Sunday. Fog chances have moved
east, and are no longer expected to get flight restrictions from
fog. Scattered storms ahead of a cold front will affect our
western terminals, with some strong to severe storms possible.
As the cold front moves east, a large line of storms will move
with it. This line may produce strong to damaging winds and
small hail. Ceilings will lower to MVFR with the line and there
may be some visibility restriction with heavy rain.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

A couple rounds of showers and storms over western Lake Superior
today and Tuesday will have increased northeast winds in
otherwise lighter southwest winds. No hazardous conditions are
currently expected, but will need to be monitored whether these
increase for the Tuesday system. Some strong to severe storms
are possible over western Lake Superior on Tuesday as well.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ009.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for LSZ140-141-
     147-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KML
AVIATION...KML
MARINE...KML