971
ACUS01 KWNS 300546
SWODY1
SPC AC 300545

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Valid 301200Z - 011200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast and southern
Florida. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Severe storm potential is low over the CONUS today. A broad upper
trough over the Midwest will shift eastward with shortwave ridging
in its wake. A second shortwave trough will intensify over the
southern Rockies as flow aloft becomes more zonal over the eastern
half of the US. At the surface, low pressure over the Great Lakes
will quickly lift northward into Canada as a strong cold front
sweeps south toward the US Gulf/Atlantic Coasts. High pressure and
an arctic air mass behind the front will keep much of the US hostile
to thunderstorm development.

The only exception will be where modest instability can develop near
the southeastern FL Peninsula, eastern Atlantic waters and the
immediate Gulf Coast ahead of the cold front. Isolated thunderstorms
that develop will be aided by modest mid-level southwesterly flow
atop the surface frontal zone. These storms should move quickly
offshore before midday as the front continues surging south.
Residual buoyancy inland will become increasingly removed with time
as high pressure and resulting offshore flow intensifies. Given the
very weak instability and short residence time of onshore
convection, severe weather is not expected.

..Lyons/Weinman.. 11/30/2025

$$