431
ACUS02 KWNS 060542
SWODY2
SPC AC 060541

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1141 PM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Aside from the possibility of a couple of thunderstorms across the
central Florida Peninsula, the risk for thunderstorms appears
negligible across much of the U.S. Sunday through Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Models continue to indicate that mid/upper ridging may rebuild
offshore of the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast, while
being maintained across and inland of coastal areas through this
period.  Downstream flow may not change appreciably on the
larger-scale, but one embedded vortex emerging from the Hudson Bay
vicinity may redevelop southeastward through central Quebec, while
at least a couple of short wave perturbations consolidate within
another branch of cyclonic flow across the central/southern Great
Plains through Southeast.

This latter development may be accompanied by modest mid-level
height falls as far south as the central Florida Peninsula by late
Sunday night, along with a reinforcing intrusion of cooler/drier air
across the Gulf coast into northwestern Gulf Basin.  Downstream, a
weak low may begin to develop along the initial stalled/slow moving
frontal zone, east of the Florida Peninsula.

...Florida...
Relatively warm layers in mid/upper levels, associated with
subtropical ridging centered over the Caribbean and adjacent western
Atlantic, may tend to suppress convective potential, particularly
across the southern into central peninsula through at least Sunday
evening.  However, beneath a belt of modest west-southwesterly
low-level flow (20-30 kt around 850 mb), an initially drier boundary
layer over the interior into eastern peninsula may moisten and
become potentially unstable by late Sunday afternoon into evening.
It is possible that this could become supportive of a period of
thunderstorm development, mainly focused along/ahead of the cold
front as it advances into and across the Interstate 4 corridor.

At least some machine learning guidance suggests that the
environment could become supportive of low probabilities for severe
weather, mainly in the form of a generally brief, weak tornado or
two.  With sufficient boundary-layer moistening, forecast soundings
do depict the development of modest low-level hodographs, and strong
deep-layer shear beneath 40-50+ kt flow around 500 mb.  At this
point, however, this potential still appears too conditional to
introduce a categorical severe risk, based on latest HREF and other
model guidance. But trends will continue to be monitored.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

$$