020
ACUS02 KWNS 151726
SWODY2
SPC AC 151724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday
across portions of the central Plains.

...Synopsis...
A positively tilted trough will move through the northern Great
Basin and eventually reach the High Plains by early Wednesday
morning. A weak surface trough/cold front will be positioned from
northern Minnesota southwestward into the central High Plains.
Another weak surface trough will extend farther south into the
southern High Plains. Off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, a weak surface low
will slowly shift north and weaken with time.

...Central Plains...
With the mid-level ascent from the approaching trough not arriving
until late afternoon/evening, it is not clear how much storm
development will occur prior to 00Z. Recent CAM guidance does
suggest that convergence along the surface trough/front may be
sufficient for late afternoon storms. The strongest shear will
likely remain behind the boundary. Upper 50s to mid 60s F dewpoints
will promote around 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Storms that do develop
will not likely remain discrete for very long given boundary
parallel shear. Isolated severe gusts and large hail will be the
main hazards. Storms should generally weaken during the evening and
beyond given a weak low-level jet response.

...Southern Plains...
While greater surface heating is expected to occur in this region,
limited low-level moisture will keep overall buoyancy modest. Shear
will also be rather modest during the afternoon. A cluster or two of
storms could develop in the High Plains and move eastward, possibly
producing locally gusty winds.

...Upper Mississippi Valley...
There is a weak signal within guidance for evening/overnight storm
development along the cold front. Convergence along the boundary
will only marginally increase after dark. Forcing for ascent will
also be weak and late-arriving. Steep lapse rates could promote a
stronger storm or two with an attendant hail risk. However, with
stronger shear behind the boundary and highly uncertain initiation,
probabilities do not appear warranted.

...North Carolina/Virginia Tidewater...
A weak offshore low will mostly remain offshore. The low will be
gradually weakening, particularly by the afternoon. Low-level flow
enhancement around the low may promote some increased risk for gusty
winds with convection, but limited onshore progression of greater
buoyancy along with rain/clouds will likely prohibit any greater
threat for damaging gusts.

..Wendt.. 09/15/2025

$$