668
ACUS02 KWNS 011728
SWODY2
SPC AC 011726

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Sat Nov 01 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
Southeast Sunday and the southern Florida Peninsula and eastern
Carolinas Sunday evening/night, but no severe threat is expected.

... Discussion ...

A seasonably strong midlevel low will move across the Tennessee
Valley toward the Carolinas on Sunday. Despite surface dewpoints in
the upper-30Fs and low-40Fs, weak instability will develop beneath
this upper low given 500-millibar temperatures approaching -30C and
modest diurnal heating. Forecast soundings support most unstable
CAPE values approaching 500 J/kg even with the equilibrium level
near 500 millibars. Showers and a few low-topped thunderstorms
should develop within this environment during the afternoon.

Additionally, a couple of thunderstorms will be possible Sunday
evening/overnight across portions of the eastern Carolinas as
large-scale ascent increases due to a combination of the approaching
midlevel low and coastal frontogenesis/cyclogenesis occurs.

Lastly, large-scale ascent will increase across the Florida
Peninsula Sunday night as the midlevel low approaches. A few
thunderstorms will be possible across far south Florida where
low-level moisture is better than farther north.

..Marsh.. 11/01/2025

$$