814
FXUS63 KEAX 200459
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1059 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain returns starting tonight through Friday with the higher
  rainfall totals trending towards central Missouri. No severe
  weather anticipated.

- Rainfall amounts of 0.5" to 1.5" are forecasted with 0.5" to
  1" of rain expected north of I-70 and 1" to 1.5" of rain
  expected south of the interstate.

- Conditions trending cooler for the second half of the work-
  week, nearing seasonal averages by Friday with highs ranging
  in the 50s to low 60s. The weekend will be dry and sunny.

- Precip chances (20-40%) return Monday as the next system moves through.
  Better chances remain farther south near southern MO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Moisture advection has moved into the area and has kept us
socked in for most of the day. Clouds have been low and haze has
settled in. The lower clouds are starting to slowly erode from
west to east. Winds have been variable and temperatures have
stayed a bit cooler due to the thick cloud cover. Highs will be
reach the mid to upper 50s and skies will still be cloudy for
most of the day. Rain moves in overnight after midnight. This
will be our first round of light rain but we won`t have much
accumulation. Tonight low`s will be in the upper 40s with mostly
cloudy skies.

Tomorrow is the day we`ll see the highest rainfall accumulation
across the area with the highest totals falling near central MO.
The rainfall accumulation totals are still on track with 0.5-1"
falling north of I-70 and 1-1.5" falling south of the
interstate. Widespread flooding isn`t expected but there may be
nuisance flooding in urban areas. Tomorrow`s highs will be in
the low to mid 60s with cloudy skies. Rain will persist through
most of the day on Friday with a front moving in overnight into
Saturday. Highs Friday and Saturday will be very similar in the
50s but Saturday the clouds will start to clear out making for a
nice fall day. Sunday will also be dry and highs will be in the
lower 60s.

Next round of rain returns Monday with a 20-40% chance of rain
with the incoming low pressure system. Then, another pattern
change is on the way with a strong cold front moving in by mid-
next week. Stay updated with the latest forecast especially if
you are traveling for the holidays!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1059 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

This remains a very a uncertain forecast as high clouds are
obscuring the low clouds, inhibiting any ability to track the
low clouds. Additionally, guidance is handling the low-level
moisture very poorly with models ranging from socked in with low
clouds and fog to nothing at all. The HRRR and the RAP seem to
be handling the low clouds the best. However based on
observations they may be a bit too aggressive with the
northwestward development. Satellite could confirm this but as
mentioned, high clouds are completely obscuring the low clouds.
So the northwestward push of the low clouds remains very
uncertain. That said, it still seems likely at some point
overnight the KC area terminals will see IFR ceilings and
visibility as the low clouds eventually fill in. There may be
some breaks tomorrow in the low clouds, and visibility will very
likely become VFR, but conditions deteriorate again soon after
sunset to IFR. Rain also moves into the area from the south.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soria
AVIATION...CDB