751
FXUS63 KEAX 291120
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

...Updated 12z Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heavy Snow Portions of North-Central to Northeast Missouri

- Rain Continues South Of Hwy. 36, Rain-Snow Mix Possible

- Much Colder After This System Passes

- Another Round of Snow Possible Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 301 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Positively tilted trough axis is moving across the Front Range
early this morning with associated surface cyclone centered over the
Oklahoma Panhandle Region. Warm front that advanced throughout the
day Friday has stalled as a stationary front late in the evening but
has slowly started to push the warmer air eastward again, along with
an axis of surface troughing across much of the Missouri River
Valley. In our far northeastern counties, temperatures remained cold
enough for snow to start once there was enough forcing for
precipitation. IRK has had a few observations of 1/2SM visibility
with heavier snowfall. As the trough axis moves eastward along with
the surface cyclone, should continue to see snowfall for that area
north of Hwy. 36 and east of Interstate 35. 00z HREF for our
northeast counties continues to depict hourly snowfall rates around
0.75 inches for our northeast counties, and over toward the IA-MO-IL
triple point, a pocket of 1.0 inch per hour rates. This will
continue between 07z-10z this morning. Snowfall rates drop off for a
bit a the front stalls with the first mid-level vort max moving east
of the Mississippi River Valley. Another lobe of vorticity drops
southward, and will force the cyclone east-southeast and also push
the cold front through. Conditions continue to be favorable moisture
to wrap around the back side of this system. This will provide
another shot of snowfall across north-central and northeastern
Missouri at some point this afternoon. Based on HREF 1-hour
snowfall, some time between 16z-19z is when rates pick up in pace
again. For areas in the Winter Storm Warning, snowfall totals
between 5-8 inches are still within reason. CAMs and even
deterministic synoptic scale guidance continues to paint totals as
high as 10 inches assuming a 10:1 ratio, which may be a bit high
considering how much moisture is currently packed into the column.
However, double digits amounts are likely too robust given the
warmer antecedent conditions heading into the first substantial
snowfall of the season. While some of the raw model output has these
high accumulations, a look at the model estimated snow depth
provides more to the story, showing the degree of melting that
occurs with the accumulating snowfall. Most of the output is quite a
bit a less for snow depth. With the overnight forecast package, the
deterministic gridded forecast amounts were bumped up a bit, but
overall the ranges advertised with the Friday afternoon package
still hold. For the counties in the Winter Storm Warning, NBM
probabilities for exceeding 5.0 inches of snowfall are generally
above 80 percent, with a tight gradient to the southwest. The
heavier snowfall totals are largely be driven by the moisture
content and strong upper-level lift. There is still no strong signal
for any kind of robust FGEN processes. Omega fields show decent lift
through the DGZ, but elsewhere lift is not overly impressive. Along
with warmer surface temperatures, this is largely the reason for not
buying into the double digit snowfall amounts that some NWP guidance
has been providing.

For areas in the Winter Weather Advisory southwest of the heaviest
snow axis, the HRRR and HREF mean has shown an increase in snowfall
totals. However, like with the areas further northeast, the model
estimated snow depth shows a large degree of melting that occurs.
There was some consideration of expanding the winter weather
advisory further southwest. However, the diminishing reflectivities
on radar noted around 07z south of Hwy. 36 along with nighttime
satellite imagery showed the push of warmer air moving into parts of
Central Missouri. And after about 04z last night, several surface
observations started pushing above 34F, with increasing dewpoints.
Some snow was still reported, likely driven by wet-bulbing in the
lowest part of the troposphere. But with the push of warm air, was
not overly confident in widespread amounts exceeding 2". Therefore,
kept the Winter Weather Advisory as is. It is still possible for
areas just out side of the headlines to see some accumulating light
snow, as depicted by recent CAM output. However, the clear push of
warm air on observations made it difficult to justify increasing
snowfall totals to a point of issuing the headline. Heading into
Saturday morning and afternoon, expecting temperatures to remain
warm enough for more rain as the trailing cold front starts to push
through. A rain-snow mix may be spotted at some point, even in
western Missouri and eastern Kansas once the colder air arrives.
However, dry air will also arrive with this, and by the time the
column would be cool enough to support all snow, will eat away most
of the moisture preventing any kind of notable accumulation. 00z
HREF from the KC metro to portions of central Missouri favors mostly
rain as the precipitation type to produce any kind of accumulation.
Accumulating snow probabilities are generally under 15 percent for
the central, western, and southwestern portions of the forecast area.

Aside from the precipitation, stronger pressure gradient will
develop on the back side of this cyclone as a strong high develops,
along with stronger CAA. This is expected to create breezy winds
Saturday afternoon that may continue well into the evening. Gusts to
around 40 MPH may be possible, though must of this will occur after
the precipitation is done. Have placed wind gusts values closer to
those of the NBM 90th percentile. These may start to push low-end
wind advisory criteria, but signal is not strong enough to issue one
at this time. Central Kansas will likely see the better setup for
wind gusts above 45 MPH as this system exits.

Sunday afternoon, the entire H5 trough will be in the Great Lakes
Region. A mid-level ridge axis moves across the Central CONUS as
another positively tilted trough moves across the Pacific Northwest.
The AVA regime will promote subsidence and push a strong surface
anticyclone across our area, along with pushing in a cold, dry polar
airmass. This will keep high temperatures only in the upper 20s to
lower 30s across the area, and allows overnight lows to dip into the
teens.

Another system is forecast to move across the region on Monday.
Current ensemble output is showing increasing probabilities for
accumulating snowfall, with greatest chances across northern Missouri
and northeastern Kansas. The greatest question right now, is if this
system will be able to advect in enough moisture ahead of it prior
to the stronger forcing arriving. The preceding polar airmass is
going to send dewpoints into the lower teens across most of the
lower Missouri River Valley even through late Sunday. GEFS mean
depicts a band of 2-3 inches of snow mainly across northern
Missouri, though a few members try to bring as far south of
Interstate 70. GEFS probabilities for at least 1" of snowfall
through Monday currently sit around 80 percent. In far northern
Missouri, probabilities are sitting around 50 percent for at least 3
inches of snowfall. A quick glance at model soundings shows a very
cold column, which keeps the main precipitation type snow. The
current setup depicted by deterministic output does not suggest any
kind of warm nose resulting in mixed precipitation. However, with
the strong surface anticyclone from Sunday, there is some potential
for blocking to re-route the system and the placement of air, as
well as the placement of a greater moisture axis. Once this current
system exits and we see how the polar airmass plays out on Sunday,
confidence should increase in snowfall details on Monday. Based on
the forcing, somewhere in our area is likely to see accumulating
snowfall. But that could vary between the IA-MO stateline, and the
Interstate 70 corridor.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 517 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Poor aviation conditions for most of Saturday with widespread
precipitation shield. Northeast and north-central Missouri will
experience accumulating snowfall through most of the afternoon,
while western Missouri to central Missouri will see rainfall.
This will be accompanied by IFR ceilings for most of the event.
A rain-snow mix is possible in parts of central Missouri. Snow
is possible at the KC metro and STJ terminals, but likely will
not last long, nor accumulate. It is also hard to pinpoint
timing on when this may be spotted. Therefore, have focused the
TAFs on timing of precipitation in general, and the IFR
ceilings.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for
     MOZ001>005-015-024-025-033.
     Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for MOZ006>008-
     016-017.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull