936
FXUS63 KEAX 141115
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
515 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

...12z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Some patchy fog remains possible yet this morning, best
  opportunities in NW MO and NE KS.

* Warm and dry conditions continue today and into Saturday
  - Today: Highs in the mid-upper 70s
  - Saturday: Highs in the low-mid 70s

* Elevated fire weather conditions possible Saturday afternoon

* Temperatures trend cooler Sunday and into next week + a couple
  chances for rain

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Quiet overall conditions have prevailed across the region overnight
and early this morning with clear skies and prevailing southerly
winds. Generally speaking, hi-res guidance has struggled in the
handling of the moistening air mass advecting northward... as the
00z HREF (and prior 12z) highlighted the potential for some areas of
fog and/or low stratus to develop across NE Kansas into NW Missouri
overnight/this morning. Thus far (through 3am), few signs of this
potential, suggesting the drier hi-res solutions prevailing at the
moment. While surface winds remain a bit too strong, 5-10+ mph, not
completely out of the woods this morning. The previously mentioned
favored areas for development among hi-res guidance are on the
fringes of a surface pressure gradient weakness and Tdd are <1-2 deg
F. The depth of moisture trapped underneath the steep inversion may
be an overall hindrance as well. Suffice it to say typically favored
areas for fog development (low lying, along/near rivers, etc) are
most likely to see any, while more widespread potential is
increasingly unlikely, and bolstered by recent HRRR/RAP runs.
Looking into today, NBM appeared a bit overzealous on cloud cover,
which in turn seemingly affected initial MaxT load. To combat, did
go with a heavier blend of short-term guidance, yielding temps a
couple degrees warmer over W/NW areas. Ultimately, of little
consequence, and more a peek as to cascading affects. Expect highs
largely from the mid to upper 70s across the area.

Into the weekend, warm conditions continue through much of Saturday,
ahead of cold front dropping through the Plains. With more of an
afternoon timing for many and strongest CAA lagging behind a bit,
highs once again well above normal in the low to mid 70s. There also
may be a small window of elevated fire weather concern with the
frontal passage as while it will not initially cool temperatures off
appreciably, it will advect in drier air and drop RH values
potentially to around 30%. Fortunately, wind speeds are not expected
to be excessive, up to around 15mph sustained. W/NW areas will be
the most prone to these elevated conditions. By Sunday, temperatures
regress towards more seasonal conditions, but remain on the warm
side in most cases. Strongest cold air push will be experienced over
NE Missouri where mid-upper 50s poised to prevail, warming to mid to
upper 60s as you work back SW towards central Missouri and KC Metro
areas.

Into next week, a more active pattern remains favored across
synoptic guidance. Though, that being said, it is difficult to put
too much weight in any specific time frames for appreciable
precipitation chances given how forecasts have trended the last few
days. Recall, just a few days ago discussions centered around
weekend (yes this weekend) precipitation chances ... then pushed
back into early week ... and most recent trends suggesting more
towards mid to late week for best appreciable precipitation chances.
All of this ties to the handling of western CONUS troughs/cut-off
lows. The flagship deterministic synoptic models suggest good
agreement in the pattern evolution the next 5+ days, generally a
series of western CONUS cutoff mid-upper lows. The first of which
moves across Intermountain West this weekend, filling and lifting NE
across the the Plains early in the work week. Ensemble guidance has
trended drier with >50-70% of the 00z Euro and GFS ensembles showing
no measurable rainfall for most of the forecast area and best
chances northward into Iowa. Second cutoff low depicted to dive
further south into Baja California before drifting eastward and
eventually lifting NE. This is the system to watch for any
meaningful precipitation as it appears stronger and would much more
readily advect deep moisture up from the Gulf. Aforementioned
GFS/Euro ensemble runs echo this with >70-75% of members depicting
measurable precipitation and many of those >0.50". Being about a
week out... expect evolution/changes in timing/track, especially
given recent trend of 5+ day out rain chances drying out over
subsequent runs.

Aside from the rain chances, temperatures do look to regress towards
normal for much of next week as the more active pattern depiction
tends to prevent much heat from building back in. Though, the temp
spreads are quite wide throughout the work, often with NBM 25th/75th
percentile spreads of 12-15 deg F given the uncertainties in
precipitation and overall handling of the western troughs/cutoff
lows. Put another way, while temp spreads are large, the overall
trend is cooler through the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 512 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Aside from KSTJ, VFR conditions from the onset and throughout
the TAF period. As for KSTJ, <1/4SM fog has settled in as it
sits within a wider area of light winds compared to the trio of
metro sites. As such, expect visibility related restrictions to
potentially linger into mid-morning before fully dissippating.
More broadly through the day, SW winds will prevail across the
sites with majority experiencing sustained winds around 10kts.
Occasional gusts into the teens kts may be experienced, but do
not appear to be frequent/prevalent enough place into current
TAFs.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis