460
FXUS63 KEAX 062007
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
207 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A wintry mix may bring very minor snow accumulations for far
  northern and northeastern MO from this evening into the overnight
  hours. There is roughly a 5-20% chance for any snow along and
  north of a line from Grant City to just north of Kirksville and
  less than a 5% chance for an inch of snow along the IA/MO state
  line.

- Very cold temperatures move into the area tonight and linger
  through Monday. Wind chill values are forecast to remain single
  digits to mid 20s (from north to south) through the day Sunday.

- The remainder of the forecast is very likely to be dry, with
  only small precipitation chances Wednesday night/ early
  Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 PM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

An embedded shortwave trough, within broad northwesterly flow,
will bring a chance for snow to far northern/northeastern MO
this evening and overnight, and a small chance for light further
south. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s and mid 30s as a
warm front has lifted into northern MO. This warm and moist
advection helped fog to persist longer into the day. That warm
front connects to the surface low in central NE. The cold front
that will surge colder air southward into the region is still
sitting across SD. As the shortwave approaches from the
northwest this afternoon and evening, the surface low will be
forced southeastward cross northern MO. As that low shifts east
overnight, the cold front will surge southward through the area,
increasing winds from the northwest to north and dropping
temperatures. With the bulk of the forcing/ ascent north of the
area, and temperatures warming into the middle 30s across
northern MO, the potential for icing in that part of the
forecast area has decreased. But there may be enough support for
minor snow accumulations along the MO/IA state line. Confidence
in this is not very high given the low probabilities for seeing
even any measurable snow. Further south, in the vicinity of the
cold front, isolated to scattered rain showers are possible.
This area looks fast-moving and QPF is limited to perhaps a few
hundredths of an inch, with the best chance for anything
measurable east of I-35.

As mentioned, temperatures drop behind the front such that by
sunrise Sunday morning, temperatures will have fallen into the teens
to low 20s across northern MO with 30s in our southeastern zones.
Cold advection continues through the day so we`ll see near
steady or even falling temperatures through the afternoon. With
winds during the gusting to 20 to 25 mph, wind chill values will
be bitterly cold with values in the single digits across
northern MO to the middle teens in our southern zones. Winds
weaken later in the day/ sunset, but as temperatures fall
through the evening, wind chills in the single digits to teens
look widespread.

The central US will remain in a broadly northwesterly flow regime
through the week. This will keep the area in a progression of
clipper/ clipper-like systems. Each of these waves vary in the
amount of moisture available with them. The strongest and most
robust with moisture looks to arrive Wednesday evening - Thursday
AM. Given the variability, PoPs are still quite low. The probability
distribution for any measurable snow (0.1") is similar to the
current system and generally keeps the greatest probabilities in far
northern to northeastern MO. But there are 5-20% chances starting
near the KC metro that increase further north and northeast. So this
will need to be watched as any variability in the track of the
clipper could shift the track of any accumulating snow north or
south with it.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Low ceilings and visibility affecting parts of east central KS
and west central MO, should remain south of the MO river,
leaving VFR conditions at MKC, MCI and STJ for the
afternoon/early evening. For IXD, ceiling and visibility
restrictions should start to diminish this afternoon, though
there is uncertainty about timing. Outside of this, a strong
cold front will move south through the region late this
evening/overnight. This will shift winds to the north and lead
to an expansive low stratus deck in the cold advection regime.
Have gone with ceilings at 2K ft AGL but these may need to be
lowered as confidence increases in the cloud bases.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CDB
AVIATION...CDB