918
FXUS63 KEAX 071737
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1137 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

...18z Aviation Update...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances (30-60%) for light showers/drizzle arrive Saturday and
early Sunday. Snow flurries possible early Sunday.

- Much colder temperatures are expected starting early Sunday. The
coldest morning will be Monday with lows in the upper teens to low
20s.

- Above normal temperatures return next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A closed upper low remains situated over the Hudson Bay churning out
mid to upper level shortwaves through the area. A mid to upper
shortwave is currently moving through the area with another
anticipated this weekend. Mid to upper level ridging remains
dominant over the western U.S. At the surface, a low that will push
a surface cold front through the area this morning/afternoon is
located over the Western Great Lakes Region. Another surface low is
situated near the OK/TX border tracking to the east. For today, a
few light wind gusts around 15-25 mph out of the west/northwest are
expected late this morning through the afternoon with daytime
heating. As far as temperatures, the colder temperatures will lag
behind the recently passed cold front. So, expect highs today to be
mostly the same as yesterday, ranging in the mid 60s to low 70s
(remaining above seasonal averages).

For the start of the weekend, the closed low over the Hudson Bay
pushes another, more stout mid to upper level shortwave through the
area. At the surface, another cold front moving through the area
will increase chances (30-60%) for light showers/drizzle starting
Saturday morning primarily north of I-70. Precip chances going into
the afternoon then shift more east of I-35 going into the
afternoon/evening. Given the limited moisture, rain totals for
Saturday remain under a tenth of an inch for most areas. A few
locations in our northeastern corner (near Putnam and Schuyler
counties) may see amounts closer to .15 inches. In regards to
temperatures, the cold front will make its way to the south of the
area resulting in cooler temperatures in our north. High
temperatures north of I-70 will range in the low to upper 50s with
areas south in the low to upper 60s.

Late Saturday into early Sunday strong cold air advection will usher
in colder temperatures on the backside of the cold front. Saturday
night lows will sink to around the mid 20s to low 30s. A few H700
shortwaves within the circulation of the closed low over the Hudson
Bay could provide just enough lift for another round of light
drizzle overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. As temperatures get
below freezing, a few snow flurries are possible across most of the
area. With a layer of dry air near the surface and limited moisture,
no accumulations of snow are expected. Increased winds (ranging from
20-30 mph) on the backside of the front could produce uncomfortably
cold conditions. Late Sunday into early Monday temperatures will
continue to drop as skies clear out, bringing us the coldest
temperatures of the season thus far. Early morning lows will range
in the upper teens to low 20s (roughly 10-15 degrees below normal).
Below freezing morning temperatures linger into Tuesday, however mid
to upper level ridging moves over the area and winds shift to the
south bringing us back above normal (also providing sweet relief
from the freezing conditions). Tuesday highs will warm up to the mid
50s to low 60s. Above normal temperatures persist into the second
half of next week with the influence of the ridge which also seems
to stave off precip chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

VFR conditions to prevail across the sites, but issued TAFs will
look busy due to wind shifts and gusts as a cold front
approachesand passes through the area. Winds today primarily
out of W/NW, shifting CW overnight to S/SE by daybreak, then
back out of the NW late in the period. Sustained and wind gusts
strongest late in the period as frontal passage moves through,
up to the mid 20s kts for gusts.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...Curtis