414
FXUS63 KEAX 222107
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
307 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Clear Today, Some Clouds Southeast of KC Metro

- Clear and Cool Sunday

- Widespread Rain Expected Monday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Deep troughing is occurring over the southwestern CONUS associated
with a strong PV anomaly. This is forcing an H5 ridge from the
Rockies into the High Plains, providing a strong dAVA regime. A
broad surface anticyclone has developed and pushed eastward across
most of the Plains into the middle Mississippi River Valley. This
has cleared skies across most of area, expect for far southeastern
reaches of the forecast area where moisture has lingered around the
900-850mb level. However subsidence should continue to push
southeast eventually eroding that cloud cover. If cloud cover clears
before midnight and the drier air has not completely pushed through,
there is some potential for fog. High resolution guidance currently
favors the southeastern CWA for this, as this is where temperatures
did not experience much heating today but could see strong cooling
tonight, making it easier to reach saturation. The troughing over
the southwest CONUS will start to lift northeastward toward the Four
Corners Region on Sunday morning and afternoon, forcing the H5 ridge
axis across Missouri through most of the afternoon while tracking
the surface anticyclone center toward the Ohio River Valley. Modest
WAA with the passage of thermal ridge should help push temperatures
into the lower 60s. Once the ridge axis has passed through and the
trough continues to lift northeastward, dCVA over the Rockies will
promote surface cyclogenesis and turn lower tropospheric flow
southerly. Increased moisture transport to the region along with the
start of isentropic ascent should increase cloud cover through the
evening hours on Sunday. We may see a few sprinkles develop, but
soundings suggest it will take several hours for the entire to
column to saturate.

Monday morning H5 trough axis moves across Central Kansas.
Deterministic model guidance depicts this system becoming vertically
stacked. Southerly low-level flow continues to provide more moisture
to the area with increasing isentropic ascent. Model soundings
indicates the column fulling saturating between 11-13z Monday
morning, marking the time of when we expect to see an expanding
precipitation shield if it is not already occurring. The main
temperature warm front with this system will likely position south
of Ozarks Region, however dewpoint and theta-e maps do depict a
decent moisture gradient that slowly moves northward through Monday.
Expecting heavier rain showers to develop as the mid-level vort
maxima moves over ahead to provide some extra lift. As for rainfall
totals, both deterministic and ensemble suites generally paint
amounts between 0.25 to 0.50 inches of QPF. Ensemble probabilities
for at least 0.10 inches are nearly above 80 percent for all of
eastern Kansas to central Missouri, with a stripe of over 95 percent
roughly along Interstate 70. For a threshold of exceeding 0.50
inches, probabilities drop to around 20 percent, though given the
forcing and overall synoptic pattern, a few pockets above 0.50 inch
to perhaps even 1.0 inch would not be a complete surprise. Once the
entire event is captured by the HREF, probability matched mean
fields may help us target the upper-end ranges for some locations.
We may see some MUCAPE around 100-300 J/kg develop ahead of the
system, but overall thermodynamic profiles are unimpressive. Will
not rule out a few rumbles of thunder, but better chances for a
convective mode will be south of the Ozarks along the stronger
temperature gradient with a more robust warm sector. Should this
system end up shifting northward and providing more instability, a
change to a convective mode of showers could increase rainfall
efficiency and lead to rainfall amounts above 0.50 inches. While the
Friday rainfall was much needed, most of the area is still
experiencing drought conditions. And given that the hourly rainfall
rates are rather low, flooding concerns will remain low with
Monday`s rainfall event. Will need to keep a closer eye on some of
the creeks and streams within the KC metro, as we did see a some
response to those with Friday`s activity. Monday evening into
Tuesday, cyclone will move eastward of the area, and drag a cold
front across the region. Lingering precipitation activity is
possible into early Tuesday morning along this front before it
completely clears the area.

Through the middle of the week, another PV anomaly promotes mid-
level troughing over the Upper-Midwest. However, most of the forcing
remains progged to stay north of the forecast area, with a west
coast ridge providing AVA into the Central Plains, with surface
anticyclone spreading into the lower Missouri River Valley. This
will help push dry polar air into the the area through the middle of
week. This will result in afternoon high temperatures in the mid 40s
for most of eastern Kansas and central Missouri with morning lows in
the upper 20s to lower 30s. The Holiday is forecast to be dry across
the area. The weather will be very active across the Ohio River
Valley and Great Lakes Region. There is a subtle signal for a weak
disturbance next weekend that could bring some rain to portions of
Missouri. Overall liquid QPF amounts remain low. Some models are
hinting at the potential for wintry mix of precipitation, but there
no signal for impactful accumulation at this time. Main travel
issues for the holiday weekend will be for the eastern third of the
CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Cold front has moving across the area with high pressure
building in. For the STJ and KC Metro terminals, this will keep
skies clear this afternoon and winds fairly light. IFR cloud
deck is present for areas well southeast of the KC metro. This
should gradually clear through the day. Fog is possible
southeast of the KC metro early Sunday morning with light winds
and cooling overnight. If drier air surges ahead, fog will be
inhibited.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Krull
AVIATION...Krull