866
FXUS63 KEAX 092125
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
325 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Well-below normal/seasonal temperatures through Tuesday morning
  - Lows approaching upper teens Monday morning
  - Wind chills approaching single digits possible Monday morning

* Temperatures rebound in earnest daytime Tuesday and through
  remainder of the week.
  - Tue-Thur - Highs in the mid 50s to 60s
  - Fri/Sat - Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s

* Next chance for appreciable precipitation (showers/storms)
  next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 322 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Was a notably colder start to the day this morning, including
temperatures cooling through mid-morning in many cases thanks to the
ongoing gusty NW winds and CAA. Mid-20s were common in areas along
and north of I-70 and areas southward a couple/few degrees warmer in
the upper 30s to low 30s. Said wind also helped push wind chill
values into the teens to lower 20s at times this morning. Currently,
skies continue to gradually clear, and should yield mostly clear
skies by this evening and into/through the overnight. Wind gusts too
begin to ease as the surface pressure gradient eases with the
approach of elongated surface high dropping into/through the Plains.
This will set up a decent nocturnal cooling setup, especially for
western areas where winds will be lightest, and should allow
temperatures approaching the upper teens Monday morning.
Fortunately, lighter winds will limit much colder wind chills, but a
few areas into the upper single digits appear likely.

Monday will be a seasonally cool/below normal day, but a few degrees
warmer than today as the large scale pattern begins to yield mid-
upper level height rises and gradual 900-850mb warming. Expect highs
ranging from the upper 30s NE to the low 40s W/SW, including KC
Metro area. As the deep mid-upper trough continues to move eastward
through the early work week, pattern becomes more of an elongated
ridge (west) trough (east) pattern, yielding broad NW flow over
central CONUS. Fortunately, we will reside on the warm side of this
pattern as southerly surface flow returns and mid-upper heights
continue to gradually rise. The moral of the story here is
temperatures rising a couple/few degrees each day through the end of
the work week... highs in the mid 50s to low 60s Tuesday and
culminating in low to mid 70s by Friday. Models are generally in
line with one another, as seen via NBM MaxT spreads predominantly <5
deg F through Friday. Throughout this time, dry conditions expected
to prevail as well.

Bigger pattern change begins to present itself late in the week as a
large/deep trough approaches the West Coast. Previously, synoptic
guidance and their ensembles were all over the map, so to speak,
with regards of this trough late week and into the weekend. By the
12z runs today, notable increase in agreement in general evolution,
tending to yield a deep open wave traversing the Intermountain West
and becoming a closed system as it enters/crosses the Central
Plains. And given the prevailing solutions, surface low passage near
NW Missouri, showers and thunderstorms would be the result. A lot to
play out between now and then, but will keep a casual eye on
evolution as it has the look of or potential to be a low CAPE - high
shear storm environment. For now, suffice it to say the moral of the
story is that there are increasing chances/confidence in appreciable
precipitation next weekend and an uncertain storm risk.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the area through
the TAF period. Existing low-VFR deck expected to continue to
gradually lift and dissipate through the day. Existing
breezy/gusty NW winds, gusts to mid 20s kts, will continue as
well, easing around/after 00z. Overnight, winds to remain
sustained out of the NW to around 10 kts, with occasional gusts
into the teens kts possible.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Curtis
AVIATION...Curtis