657
AXPZ20 KNHC 012128
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Nov 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the
Gulf of America on Sun and a strong ridge will settle across Mexico
and the Gulf in the wake of the front. Strong winds will funnel
through the Chivela Pass and gap winds in Tehuantepec will
resume, reaching near gale force speeds and rough seas by Sun
afternoon and gale force winds by Sun evening with seas reaching
very rough ranges mainly on Tue. Gales will prevail through Wed,
however strong to near gale force winds will gradually diminish
through Thu evening.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N134W. The ITCZ
stretches from that point to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is ongoing from 03N to 11N and E of
86W, and from 05N to 14N and W of 91W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Northerly winds from a building ridge in the Gulf of America
continue to support a fresh winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec
with rough seas. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere is
supporting moderate or weaker winds, except for light to gentle
winds in the Gulf of California. Seas over the SW Mexican
offshores are moderate in SW swell. Moderate seas prevail across
the Mexican offshore waters. In the Gulf of California seas are
slight.

For the forecast, fresh NE winds and rough seas in the Gulf of
Tehuantepec will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by this
evening. A cold front will move across the Gulf of America on Sun
and a strong ridge will settle across Mexico and the Gulf in the
wake of the front. Strong winds will funnel through the Chivela
Pass and gap winds in Tehuantepec will develop, reaching near gale
force speeds and rough seas by Sun afternoon and gale force
winds by Sun evening with seas reaching very rough ranges mainly
on Tue. Gales will prevail through Wed, however strong to near
gale force winds will gradually diminish through Thu evening. A
set of large NW swell will move into the Baja California Norte
offshore waters by Sun morning, and spread to Cabo San Lazaro by
Sun night before gradually subsiding through Tue evening.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo with
moderate seas. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas
are elsewhere across the Central America offshores. Between
Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate
from the SE to S, and seas are rough in long period SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh gap winds and moderate seas are
expected to pulse across the Papagayo region through Thu. Cross-
equatorial SW swell will continue propagate through the regional
waters and will gradually subside on Sun. The next strong
Tehuantepec gap wind event will result in moderate N winds and
moderate to rough seas in the far offshore waters of Guatemala
and El Salvador Mon through early Wed.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1025 mb high pressure centered near 32N133W extends a ridge
across the E Pacific subtropical waters. A large NW swell has
entered the NW corner of the basin, with rough seas N of 25N and
W of 130W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and moderate seas over
the tropical waters W of 130W. Moderate or weaker winds are
elsewhere along with moderate seas W of 110W. East of 110W, long-
period SW swell is supporting rough seas south of the monsoon
trough.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will dominate the waters
W of 120W into early next week. Cross-equatorial SW swell E of
110W will subside by Sun evening. The large NW swell will
continue spreading across the northern half of the basin, with
rough to very rough seas prevailing across the area through Tue
before subsiding.

$$
ERA