263
AXPZ20 KNHC 022053
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Oct 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2040 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Octave is centered near 12.7N 119.0W at 02/2100
UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with
gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft (5.5 m).
Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 12N to 13N
between 119W and 120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 10N to 15N between 118W and 122W.
A general west- northwestward motion is expected with little
change in strength forecast during the next 48 hours. Please read
the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest
Octave NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Offshore of the Southwestern Coast of Mexico (Invest EP99):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association
with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles off the
coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form by the weekend while the
system moves generally west-northwestward, remaining parallel to
but offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along
the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone
formation within the next 48 hours. Please read the latest
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for
more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N96W to 15N104W. It
resumes from 12N123W to 10N133W. The ITCZ extends from 10N133W
to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 09N between 80W and 92W, and from 07N to 16N
between 93W and 107W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please refer to the Special Features for details on Tropical
Storm Octave located well SW of the offshore waters, and on a
trough of low pressure offshore of SW Mexico with the potential
for tropical cyclone formation.

Moderate to fresh winds are noted over and downstream the Gulf
of Tehuantepec. Moderate NW-N winds are west of the Baja
California peninsula. Mainly light to gentle winds are across
the remainder of the waters, including the Gulf of California.
Seas are in the 6-8 ft range off Baja California Norte, and 4-7
ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico in mixed S-SW
and W-NW swell. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California,
reaching 4 ft near the entrance of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the
Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sat, locally strong at times.
Moderate to locally fresh winds will persist offshore Baja
California N of Cabo San Lazaro through the remainder of the week
and into Sat, locally strong near Punta Eugenia at times. NW
swell has reached the waters offshore Baja California Norte. This
swell will build seas to rough in the outer waters through Sat
night. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in
association with a trough of low pressure located a few hundred
miles off the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while the system moves generally west-northwestward,
remaining parallel to but offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico. There is a high chance for tropical development in the
next 48 hours. Regardless of development, expect increasing winds
and seas over these waters.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are N of the monsoon trough. Moderate S-SW
winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are 4-5 ft in mixed
SW and NW swells across the waters.

For the forecast, mostly light to gentle winds will prevail N of
the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are
expected S of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell will build
slightly Fri into the upcoming weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please refer to the Special Features for details on Tropical
Storm Octave, and on a trough of low pressure offshore of SW
Mexico with the potential for tropical cyclone formation.

The 1015 mb remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Narda is
located near 23N130W. No deep convection is present with the
remnant low. Moderate winds are currently in the NW semicircle. A
frontal trough extends over the NW waters. The frontal trough
has ushered in a set of NW swell, with seas in the 8-9 ft range
over the NW waters. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft outside of Octave and
the NW waters. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the
open waters away from Tropical Storm Octave.

For the forecast, Octave will move to 13.0N 119.9W Fri morning,
13.5N 121.1W Fri afternoon, 14.0N 122.3W Sat morning, 14.6N
123.4W Sat afternoon, 15.0N 123.9W Sun morning, and 15.3N 123.7W
Sun afternoon. Octave will change little in intensity as it moves
to near 15.5N 123.5W Mon afternoon. The remnant low of Narda
will drift W-SW and gradually spin down, and open up into a
trough tonight. The area of NW swell will impact the northern
waters, spreading eastward to near Baja California through the
end of the week. High pressure to the NW of the area will build
southeastward into the NW waters, with moderate to locally fresh
N to NE winds gradually expanding there by the end of the week
into the weekend. Winds will increase to fresh to locally strong
S of the monsoon trough, mainly E of 125W by the end of the week
into the weekend, as an area of low pressure possibly develops
into a tropical cyclone offshore of SW Mexico. These winds may
build seas to rough S of the monsoon trough. Meanwhile, a new set
of large southerly swell will propagate toward the equator
during the upcoming weekend.

$$
AL