Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
988 FXUS64 KEWX 161833 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1233 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low stratus and patchy fog possible over the next few mornings - Above average warmth continues early to midweek with daily record highs possible - Mid to late week storm system brings returning rain and storm chances (50-80%) with the opportunity for strong storms and locally heavy rainfall && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1153 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 A warm and humid airmass continues as low-level southerly flow remains across the area. In fact depending on how warm or even hot temperatures get today could determine if we break records regarding our overnight lows(record high minimum temps). Many locations with the moist dewpoints in place are expected to stay very mild overnight tonight with upper 60s and even some .ow 70s common. As we have seen the previous few mornings, a low stratus deck is possible with patchy fog a possibility as well mainly along and south of the I-10 Corridor. The stratus deck and fog should dissipate by mid morning giving way to record heat possible by late afternoon with upper 80s likely with low 90s not out of the realm of possibility(see Climate Section below). Expect another very warm possibly record warm overnight lows for Monday night into Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1153 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 The warm and humid airmass continues until midweek when the long advertised low pressure system currently out over the pacific eventually makes its way towards our area. Model run to run consistency has improved but its still far too early to label anything with much confidence besides the fact that we likely will see rain/storms. The main questions we currently still have are: how strong will this system be? and when will it arrive?(aka the track). Both of these things are currently not ironed out at this time. Regardless until then southerly low-level flow should continue until Wednesday keeping a anonymously warm and humid airmass across our area. We are keeping Wednesday into Thursday night as the main timeframe we expect to see the heaviest precip across our area. However, this again ties to what track this system takes. As we have seen from the previous system that looked likely to impact our area, once models got a better handle on it the track shifted much farther north keeping us in a more warmer and humid airmass. All that to say, is that confidence on precip happening is medium to high but confidence on what we see(heavy rainfall, severe weather) is low at this time. Currently as it stands models, particularly the GFS and ensembles have trended further north and east with time from run to run. We will have to monitor and see if this trend continues before nailing down any one solution. It likely won`t be until possibly next week that the initial impulse is first sampled and observed by upper-air stations on the West Coast. Once this happens we will likely have a more confident forecast in how this trough and scenario evolves. For now, remained with a blended forecast with pops remaining in the 50-80% range for mid week. Once we move past this system midweek expect the possibility for cooler, more normal temperatures to return to our area for November. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and lows dropping back into the 40s and 50s can be expected. Continue to check back often as these details continue to become clearer in the coming days as the system gets closer to the mainland CONUS. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025 Stratus clouds have cleared to VFR skies and a BL wind direction from the SW will keep a VFR sky over all TAF sites through the evening. Ridging remains in control of TX but the pattern is more flat zonal, leading to longer stretches of VFR skies going forward into Sunday. The return of low clouds could be close to persistence to that of this morning, but there could be a faster burn-off of low cigs as drier mid level air keeps moving into the mixed layer. Thus we may see more rapid improvement from MVFR to VFR in the 15-18Z window Sunday. The flow aloft should steepen to more SW toward the end of the TAF period, so there may be more surface wind speeds over 10 knots and less mixing of the directions from the SW. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1227 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025 Record High Temperatures Day Sun Mon Tue Date 11/16 11/17 11/18 AUS 87/2016 89/2013 84/2017 ATT 87/1938 90/2013 85/1921 & 1986 SAT 86/1938 89/2013 88/1986 & 2017 DRT 89/1938 91/190687/1986 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 67 88 70 86 / 0 0 0 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 65 88 69 87 / 0 0 0 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 65 88 68 87 / 0 0 0 10 Burnet Muni Airport 64 86 68 82 / 0 0 0 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 61 89 67 85 / 0 0 0 10 Georgetown Muni Airport 65 88 69 85 / 0 0 0 10 Hondo Muni Airport 62 88 67 86 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 65 89 68 88 / 0 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 66 88 67 87 / 10 10 10 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 66 87 69 86 / 0 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 67 88 70 88 / 0 0 0 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CJM LONG TERM....CJM AVIATION...18