Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
320 FXUS64 KEWX 091910 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 110 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Windy conditions and near-critical to critical fire weather conditions to continue into the early evening - Light freezes expected around sunrise across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country on Monday, then low lying spots near the escarpment, I-35 corridor and Coastal Prairies Tuesday - Warm again mid week into next weekend - Elevated fire weather conditions for Coastal Prairies Monday, and elevated to near critical fire weather conditions over most of the South Central TX Tuesday && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1152 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 Low end wind advisory conditions are occurring as of the late morning and midday. Upstream winds in Central TX might suggest the stronger winds to shift focus southward and relax a bit, leading to a possible early cancellation of the Wind Advisory in a few hours. The winds will remain plenty strong enough to warrant the Red Flag Warning. The next focus is for tonight`s low temperatures and the wind indications over the I-35 corridor would suggest not enough decoupling to allow for the first freeze in those areas. The first freeze and Freeze Warning product went out for the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau where better decoupling of wind and lower dew point temperatures are likely. Daytime Monday could start off a little breezy over the Coastal Prairies but the MOS guidance surface winds show decreases already by 18Z. Those waking up early will experience wind chills in the 20s across much of the area, but will see lighter winds and the max temperature recovering to the upper 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 While the cold air advection is all but done by Monday evening, the cool starting temperatures, light winds, low dew points, and clear skies will all contribute to the coldest air of the season for the central, eastern, and southern counties. Another freeze warning is expected to go out for portions of these areas, but will not be confident on how far south and east to take the product in this package. Early Tuesday morning, winds over northwest counties will possibly curb the cooling early with higher terrain winds mixing the air leaving min temperatures that would occur a few hours before daybreak. These winds will continue to pick up as broad surface troughing deepen over the high plains into NW TX. The still very low dew points will aid in a rapid daytime warm-up back to above normal maxes and potentially some more fire weather concerns that could warrant a Fire Danger Statement. Dew points and humidity will recover more aggressively from the SE counties in the afternoon, but not until the evening over NW counties. Min temps for Wednesday morning will jump 10 to 20 degrees over those from Tuesday morning as a result. The warming trend continues through the work week before another polar trough brings the next weather change. Yesterday`s solutions suggested this would have been a favorable one with a weaker trough and some rain chances over much of the area. Today`s consensus depict a stronger and faster system, which might lead to less rain and more fire weather issues for next weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1052 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 VFR conditions are forecast for local area airports through Monday evening. Breezy to windy northerly winds are currently forecast to prevail through late afternoon. The wind speeds are forecast to diminish to 15 knots or less this evening and down to 10 knots or less overnight through Monday morning. Then, northerly winds persist for the rest of Monday with speeds ranging from 6 to 10 knots. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1052 AM CST Sun Nov 9 2025 A Red Flag Warning is in effect for all of South Central Texas for through 9 PM this evening. While little change in minimum humidities is expected on Monday, winds will be decreasing during the day. Morning to midday winds over the Coastal Prairies will remain high enough into the early afternoon for elevated to potentially near critical fire weather conditions. Southerly flow returns Tuesday with wind speeds picking up quickly over the higher terrain of the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. Moisture will be slow to return in the daytime, so minimum humidities in the upper teens to 20s could lead to near critical to possibly critical fire weather conditions for some areas by Tuesday afternoon. Thus there are potentials for Fire Danger statements or Red Flag Warnings for Monday and Tuesday. Higher moisture levels will accompany breezy south winds Wednesday through Friday, but another disturbance could potentially bring another front and possible critical fire weather pattern next weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 38 62 38 72 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 34 61 32 73 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 36 62 34 72 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 36 58 37 69 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 42 67 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 33 59 35 72 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 36 65 33 72 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 34 62 32 74 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 36 60 34 73 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 38 63 37 72 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 41 64 38 74 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for TXZ171>173- 183>194-202>209-217>225-228. Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Monday for TXZ171>173-184>190. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ173-191>194- 204>209-219>225. && $$ SHORT TERM...18 LONG TERM....18 AVIATION...17