Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
174 FXUS64 KEWX 301739 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1139 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Cool temperatures continue, but with breezy winds lessening tonight. - Patchy freeze possible for rural portions of the Hill Country Tuesday morning. - Increasing rain chances Thursday and Friday across the area. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Brisk and cool autumnal air is here and will stick around for a few days as northerly winds persist. The stronger and gustier winds from this morning are expected to subside as the recent cold front and its associated pressure gradient moves farther south and broadens. VAD wind profiles from the KEWX and KDFX radar sites show southerly flow continuing above 5000 ft even despite the cold surge, so we`ll remain socked in under cloud cover and remain cool in the daytime. A cool night with lighter winds is forecast with lows mostly in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Continued overcast skies should keep temperatures from diving much farther despite the ongoing near- surface cold air advection. Thus, freezing temperatures are not forecast tonight into Monday morning, and the latest HREF and REFS guidance portray negligible (less than 5% chances) of below freezing temperatures. On Monday, a shortwave trough embedded in the subtropical jet is forecast to move into our area, leading to an increase in rain chances for mainly the Coastal Plains as a coastal low develops offshore. Most rain will be light to moderate with a possible isolated rumble of thunder. The most likely rain totals from mesoscale models (25th to 75th percentile) range from a few hundredths up to about a half-inch. Those rains should clear out of the area by the evening. The cyclonic flow around the coastal low and the spread of mid-level moisture will likely prolong cloudy conditions especially for the eastern Hill Country, I-35 corridor, and Coastal Plains, making for another cool afternoon with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. To the west, a brief window for southerly flow is expected and some clearing is forecast behind the passerby trough, so temperatures could reach the upper 50s and low 60s along the Rio Grande. On Monday night, a separate pair of shortwave troughs makes its way over the southern Plains. The stronger lead trough helps to deliver some reinforcing cold with a renewed and deeper layer north breeze that chips away at the cloud cover, but the weaker lagging trough over our latitude could counteract those effects slightly. Still, the drier mid-level profiles and supportive winds favor Monday night to Tuesday morning behind the coldest overnight stretch of this cooler period. Forecast lows range from the low 30s to mid 40s areawide, with a medium chance (30 to 60 percent) of a freeze in portions of the Hill Country. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Sunday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Seasonably cool to slightly colder than seasonable temperatures are forecast to continue throughout the week. Troughing is forecast to amplify over the western CONUS beginning Wednesday downwind of positive height anomalies over the northern Pacific. This will enhance divergence aloft over our area and promote broad rising motion over the Southern Plains, favoring increased and potentially widespread rain chances Thursday through at least Friday (rain chances are currently 50 to 70 percent for most). Chances and amounts could be further enhanced if the cut-off low currently meandering the Pacific off California gets swept into the amplified troughing, delivering additional moisture over our region. This weather pattern is not supportive of freezing temperatures, but a period of cool afternoons under persistent cloud cover and complemented by some rain does look to be shaping up in the latter half of the week. Slight warming trends are possible towards the weekend, but the continued presence of longwave troughing across the CONUS suggests any such warmups will probably be slow at best. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025 Mostly cloudy to overcast skies prevail through the period with primarily MVFR to VFR flight conditions. Ceilings become lowest early Monday morning when some light rain or drizzle could be possible as well. Greatest rain chances is forecast to focus southeast of the I-35 terminals (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) but have enough confidence to include PROB30s for -RADZ for these sites. Locations along the Rio Grande and Hill Country remain drier, including KDRT. Breezy northerly winds start to subside in the second half of the afternoon and should fall below 10 kt into overnight tonight. Winds trend weaker along the Rio Grande, including KDRT, with the directions shifting late in the period easterly to east-southeasterly. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 41 49 36 56 / 20 30 10 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 40 49 35 56 / 20 30 10 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 41 50 37 57 / 30 30 10 0 Burnet Muni Airport 38 50 33 55 / 10 20 10 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 46 60 42 62 / 10 10 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 40 50 33 56 / 20 20 10 0 Hondo Muni Airport 42 55 37 60 / 20 20 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 40 50 36 57 / 30 30 10 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 41 50 37 55 / 40 50 10 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 43 52 39 59 / 20 30 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 44 53 41 59 / 20 30 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62