Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
712 FXUS64 KEWX 051040 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 540 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Above average October warmth continues with minor (10-20%) rain chances early to midweek && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 A quiet but warm weather pattern will remain across South-Central Texas as the region is in-between troughing over the Intermountain west and a weak upper level low off the Louisiana coast that looks to drift northward and weaken into the background flow by early Monday. A slight uptick in the onshore flow and low-level moisture levels on Monday afternoon may be able to help support for the sea breeze to reach portions of our coastal plain counties, which may help generate a few showers. Otherwise, rain chances are to remain minimal with mostly sunny skies through today before skies trend more partly cloudy for areas along and east of I-35 on Monday. The temperatures stay above average with the afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 80s for portions of the Hill Country to the low to mid 90s elsewhere. The morning lows will range from the low 60s to near 70 degrees. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 Sub-tropcial ridging builds across the northern Gulf through early week and slides westward atop the state later during the week and towards the start of next weekend. Tuesday and Wednesday continues to be the primary window for some spotty showers, perhaps a stray storm, as PWATs increase up into the 50 to 75 percentile range for this time of year. With that said, these chances are rather small with the majority remaining rain free. Some of this activity could be generated with some help from a rather diffuse frontal boundary drifting into the Waco area. Otherwise, there could be some high clouds coming from the Eastern Pacific as well. Rain chances are to then dwindle beyond Wednesday with the increasing subsidence from the ridge positioning more atop of the region. The above average temperatures will remain persistent but nights do become a tad more humid. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025 VFR flight conditions expected to prevail. A region of low clouds has developed and will continue to focus between San Antonio and the Rio Grande past sunrise. Some of the low clouds could bleed over to the terminals, especially KDRT but no impacts at this are expected. Otherwise, there could be a few high clouds passing at times throughout the period. The winds trend the lightest through mid-morning, otherwise expect for winds of around 12 kts or less to prevail from out of the east-southeast. Winds will diminish and become variable overnight. A few low clouds could return across the region entering into Monday morning as well. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 93 70 93 71 / 0 0 10 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 94 68 93 69 / 0 0 10 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 93 68 92 69 / 0 0 10 10 Burnet Muni Airport 89 67 89 68 / 0 0 10 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 70 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 91 67 91 68 / 0 0 10 10 Hondo Muni Airport 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 10 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 94 68 93 68 / 0 0 10 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 93 69 93 70 / 0 0 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 92 70 92 71 / 0 0 10 10 Stinson Muni Airport 94 71 94 72 / 0 0 10 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...62