Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
630 FXUS64 KEWX 271742 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1142 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for light showers increase Friday into Saturday. - Coldest temperatures of the season possible Sunday into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday night) Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Thanksgiving`s seasonable temperatures will continue tonight, with temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s around sunset and dropping into the 50s during the evening. Forecast lows Friday morning range from the mid 40s along and north of TX-71 to the mid to upper 50s in the Rio Grande Plains as the coolest air begins to scoot east. Cloudiness will be on the increase Friday across South-Central Texas as the subtropical jet stream shifts into our area. In response, southerly flow should intensify, and low-level moisture mostly beneath 750 mb is expected to increase. Gradual, moist isentropic ascent over the residual cooler airmass should lead to the spread of rain chances across the region from west to east on Friday, though with neither much instability nor much dynamic forcing for ascent, the rain will be mostly light to drizzly. Better chances for measurable rain totals will be in the higher terrain of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country closer to the cloud bases, but most totals during the day are expected to be less than a quarter inch. Temperatures may struggle to make it out of the 50s in the more socked-in portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country Friday. Slightly better forcing arrives Friday night as a distant shortwave and its accompanying surface low move across Oklahoma and Kansas. A lack of distinct boundaries and a more warm air advective mode of shower development will favor a broader coverage of light to moderate showers, with a low chance for an isolated rumble of thunder during the night into Saturday morning as activity works its way east. Better chances for more robust showers and thunder are found over the Coastal Plains where instability will be marginally higher through Saturday. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 Saturday is forecast to be a warmer November day as the area briefly finds itself in the middle of the narrow warm sector detaching from the departing surface low, with highs in the 70s. That will change in a hurry Saturday night into Sunday morning as a polar front surges across South-Central Texas, bringing substantially cooler air. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible beginning ahead of the front Saturday evening and then along the front itself overnight into Sunday morning, mainly east of I-35 where the stronger moisture transport is directed. Cooler and breezy conditions arrive quickly behind the front, with low temperatures Sunday morning forecast to dive into the low 40s and 30s north of Highway 90. Wind chills may dip into the 20s at higher elevations. Winds immediately behind the front could reach 15-20 mph sustained with gusts up to 35 mph. The subtropical jet will still be supplying mid- to upper-level clouds over the area, so temperatures are not expected to climb much during the daytime, likely remaining in the 40s to 50s for most of the day. The cool air is forecast to stick around for several days as a prominent longwave trough dominates the central US, giving an opportunity for freezing temperatures as overnight/morning lows settle into the 30s and 40s through Wednesday. A shortwave Tuesday evident in deterministic, ensemble, and machine learning modeling may cause a deep-layer strengthening of northerly winds Tuesday morning and a reinforcement of cold air. Should this materialize, the coldest air of the season thus far is possible midweek, including the potential for a hard freeze in the Hill Country. Current areal freeze probabilities from the NBM indicate a 30 to 60 percent chance of a freeze for much of the region. Returning southwesterly flow aloft towards the latter half of the week may start slight warming trend, though temperatures look to remain seasonably cool. Cooler temperatures and drier air will tend to limit precipitation intensities over the next week, but the frequent placement of the jet over our area indicate recurring chances for light to moderate rains for mainly the Coastal Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025 VFR flight conditions will primarily continue across the region at least entering early Friday morning but do expect for a bkn to ovc mid-level deck to maintain through that time. MVFR ceilings start advancing eastward across the Rio Grande, including at KDRT on Friday morning. These MVFR ceilings after the TAF period advance into the I-35 corridor Friday evening. Winds will gradually become more easterly then southeasterly with time. The speeds then also slightly uptick to moderate breezes of around 10 to 12 kts for Friday afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 48 64 59 78 / 0 10 50 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 46 65 59 78 / 0 10 50 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 48 65 60 78 / 0 20 50 20 Burnet Muni Airport 46 60 57 75 / 0 20 50 20 Del Rio Intl Airport 55 62 57 77 / 10 40 20 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 45 62 57 77 / 0 10 50 30 Hondo Muni Airport 52 63 59 76 / 0 40 50 10 San Marcos Muni Airport 46 65 59 79 / 0 20 50 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 45 67 61 78 / 0 10 50 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 52 65 61 76 / 0 30 50 20 Stinson Muni Airport 54 66 62 78 / 0 30 50 10 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...62 LONG TERM....62 AVIATION...Tran