Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
721 FXUS64 KEWX 221407 CCA AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 807 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated storms tonight into the morning over the Coastal Plains. - Locally heavy rain is possible Sunday night into Monday, with higher chances across the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. - Fall like temperatures for Thanksgiving. && .UPDATE... Issued at 802 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Some showers have developed behind the cold front south and southwest of San Antonio. We expect this popup development to continue for the next few hours and have adjusted the forecast to reflect a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 A drawn out Pacific frontal surface is very slowly drifting east to southeast over South-Central Texas, leading to a contrast between drier and slightly cooler conditions over most of Central Texas and muggy and unseasonably warm conditions to start the night over the Coastal Plains. Overnight rejuvenation of southerly flow along the frontal surface with substantial moisture still in place indicate an uptick in isolated to scattered shower and storm activity over the Coastal Plains is possible (40 to 60 percent rain chances), with most of the high-resolution mesoscale models showing activity mainly between midnight and about 8 AM. Large-scale forcing for ascent is weak and should limit storm extent, but ample low-level moisture and instability could still support a few quick and isolated downpours with 1 to 3 inches of rain within broader areal totals ranging from a few hundredths to about a quarter-inch. Some westward extension is possible west towards the Rio Grande Plains closer to daybreak as low-level winds veer slightly. Behind the front, a shallow cool airmass will spread north to south across South-Central Texas beginning by about 3 AM and diffuse across the rest of the region by noon with a modest north wind. This will help bring a cooler and drier morning for most as lows fall into the 50s north of US Highway 90 (with some 40s in the Hill Country) but stay in the 60s farther south. Highs Saturday are expected to still reach the 70s to low 80s with warmer air mixing down from aloft, but this time with substantially lower dew points in the 50s. Rain-free weather is expected for most of South-Central Texas. However, persistent flow aloft between about 700 and 850 mb is expected to pull moisture atop the cool and dry surface airmass, starting south over the Rio Grande Plains Saturday afternoon and eventually spreading to the southern Edwards Plateau. Dry subcloud conditions will make it difficult for most rain to reach the ground and keep activity mostly in the form of isolated light showers, but increasing mid- level southwesterly flow should help steepen lapse rates and advect enough elevated instability to eventually support a stronger storm by Sunday morning near the Rio Grande or over the southern Edwards Plateau. The strengthened southwesterly flow aloft Sunday arrives courtesy of an approaching trough over the southwestern US. Southerly flow within the boundary layer reemerges in response, supporting cloudy weather and a general increase in moisture and isolated light showers for our area mainly between the Rio Grande and I-35 corridor. Most of the initial PVA is to our north, so rainfall totals during the day Sunday look light and are more likely to range between a few hundredths to a few tenths for most. High temperatures Sunday range from the upper 60s over the Edwards Plateau to near 80 over the Coastal Plains. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 Heading into Sunday night, a Pacific front is expected to approach the area from the northwest, juxtaposed with divergent flow ahead of the southern extension of an incoming trough axis. Showers and storms are expected to develop along the front it encounters a 30-40 kt low-level jet and moistening environment. The trough and front have trended slower, so timing has shifted a more towards Monday morning and afternoon for that line of storms to move over our region from west to east. High PW values in the 90th percentile may support pockets of locally heavy rainfall, so WPC continues to highlight a level 1 to 2 risk (out of 4) for excessive rainfall capable of producing flash flooding extending into South-Central Texas. Better odds for heavier rains are found mainly over the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country, followed by the Coastal Plains Monday evening. While synoptic parameters look favorable, the latest modeled rainfall totals have not looked as impressive for our area, particularly over the southern half of the CWA. There will likely be more clarity regarding rainfall potential once the event moves into the range of the higher resolution CAMs. A drier and much more seasonable weather pattern takes shape in the wake of Monday`s front and associated thunderstorms. The longwave trough pattern which has dominated weather over the western US is expected to finally shift eastward next week. This will pave the way for northerly flow behind the outgoing longwave to push cooler air back into the region in a much more convincing manner. A cold airmass is expected to arrive by about Wednesday, which may push highs into the 60s and lows into 40s or even 30s. While the magnitude of the cold is dependent on whether the airmass more directly spreads across the region (as indicated by the NAEFS) or not (as indicated by the EPS), the ensemble envelope as a whole favors more fall-like weather for Thanksgiving. There are indications that another digging trough over the western US will eventually bring and end to the cool period next weekend, but high pressure should stick around long enough to give the region about three days of seasonable temperatures between Wednesday and Friday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025 VFR flight conditions will primarily prevail across the region. There remains some isolated to widely scattered showers along with a solo storm ongoing across the coastal plains but this activity should end through the next few hours as drier air continues to advance southward. With the drier air, skies turn mostly sunny for most locations from later this morning through this afternoon before mid and high level clouds arrive from west to east into and through tonight. Wind speeds will slightly increase throughout the daylight hours to around the 10 kt from the north-northeast across the I-35 (KAUS, KSAT, and KSSF) terminals. Winds should trend weaker and more variable in direction towards the Rio Grande, including KDRT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 75 55 74 65 / 10 0 10 30 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 53 74 63 / 10 0 10 30 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 56 74 65 / 10 10 10 30 Burnet Muni Airport 71 52 68 62 / 0 10 20 50 Del Rio Intl Airport 78 61 72 65 / 10 40 50 50 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 50 70 61 / 0 0 10 40 Hondo Muni Airport 79 59 74 65 / 10 20 30 30 San Marcos Muni Airport 77 55 75 64 / 10 10 10 30 La Grange - Fayette Regional 77 54 75 64 / 10 0 10 20 San Antonio Intl Airport 78 59 74 67 / 10 10 20 30 Stinson Muni Airport 79 60 76 68 / 10 10 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...62