Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
493 FXUS64 KEWX 141115 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 515 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm through next week, record highs possible Sunday through Tuesday. - Rain chances return for middle to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Southerly lower level flow and thermal ridge underneath a mid level ridge maintains well above average temperatures. The moist lower level flow maintains late night into morning low clouds and patchy fog, some dense. With heating, mixing into the dry mid levels erodes the clouds and fog for ample afternoon sunshine. A tight surface pressure gradient results in breezy winds with gusts up to 25 mph. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Southerly lower level flow and thermal ridge underneath a mid level ridge maintains well above average temperatures. The moist lower level flow maintains late night into morning low clouds and patchy fog, some dense. With heating, mixing into the dry mid levels erodes the clouds and fog for ample afternoon sunshine. A tight surface pressure gradient results in breezy winds with gusts up to 25 mph. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1202 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Later this weekend into early next week, the mid level ridge moves off to the east with warm southwesterly mid level flow strengthening over our area. Well above average temperatures continue as the lower level thermal ridge strengthens ahead of a weak Pacific front moving into the Edwards Plateau. The current records in the mid to upper 80s for Sunday the 16th through Tuesday 18th may be broken or tied. Forcing from a mid level shortwave and the Pacific front results in slight POPs (20%) for showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into evening over the eastern Hill Country to across the Austin area to the US 77 corridor. For the middle to late part of next week, there remains uncertainty among the models and their respective ensembles and AI versions with respect to the timing, track, and strength of a mid level trough and surface cold front. The majority shows showers and a few isolated thunderstorms ahead of a line of showers and thunderstorms with some strong to severe storm and locally heavy rain potential. A small minority show the trough passing well to the north of our area with a mid level ridge redeveloping over our area resulting in little or no showers and thunderstorms. Have favored the majority due to a somewhat better consistency with its blended guidance POPs (20-60%). A cooldown is expected, though temperatures remain above average. With the pattern in flux, expect updates to the forecast through the next several days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 513 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025 Low stratus has developed along the I-35 corridor extending northwest over much of the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau. Have forecast MVFR to IFR ceilings at AUS, SAT and DRT through mid to late morning with MVFR visibility at SSF. Still expect VFR conditions to return to all of South Central Texas later this morning and continue through tonight. MVFR conditions look to develop again sometime early Saturday morning for most TAF locations. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 85 62 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 85 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 82 60 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 86 59 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 84 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 85 57 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 59 85 60 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 59 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 84 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 86 61 85 63 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...27