114
FXUS62 KFFC 221816
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
116 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025



...New 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 105 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

 - Chances for showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms will
   continue into the afternoon today. Any additional rainfall will
   be light.

 - Above-normal temperatures will continue through the middle of
   next week.

 - Rain chances are likely to make a return between Tuesday and
   Thursday, though the extent and exact amounts remain uncertain.



&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Over the course of the day today, the surface low pressure system
responsible for the patchy showers ongoing across portions of north
and central Georgia will sweep eastward, with its attendant cold
front slowly filtering southeastward across the state. As it does
so, any lingering precipitation will come to an end (likely by late
this evening, and flow at the mid-levels will shift from nearly
quasi-zonal to northwesterly -- ushering in a reinforcing shot of
dry air across much of ECONUS. Coverage of showers will remain
patchy, with up to an additional tenth of an inch of rainfall
possible between now and 1AM Sunday morning. Within more
moderate/convective showers, some rumbles of thunder are possible,
owing to bolstered-but-still-meager instability for areas in closer
proximity to the parent low trekking across the Tennessee River
Valley. Modest bulk shear -- 30kts or greater -- will be present
across north and north central Georgia today, and an isolated strong
storm can`t be ruled out, but antecedent (and lingering) cloud cover
should preclude meaningful chances for severe weather.

Tomorrow, the combination of drying northwesterly flow at the
mid- levels and high pressure moving in at the surface should
support a clear and dry end to the weekend. Our unseasonably warm
November weather will continue. Highs today and tomorrow afternoon
will be in the mid-70s to lower-80s, with Saturday morning lows
in the upper- 40s to 50s -- as much as 10 to 15 degrees above
average for highs, and 12 to 16 degrees above average for lows.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 215 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

The long term period starts off warm and mostly dry with surface
high pressure and a midlevel ridge in place through Monday. A
pattern shift still looks to be on the horizon with an increasing
potential for rain chances to return to portions of North and
Central Georgia as early as Tuesday. Midlevel ridging will slide
eastward as a deepening cut-off low ejects east of the Rockies
and drifts across the High Plains. At the surface, a cold front
will begin making its way towards the Southeast, eventually
passing through the region later in the week. The exact
path/trajectory of the developing low is still somewhat uncertain
thus the extent of rainfall and the amount of rainfall we receive
across North and Central Georgia is also uncertain. The speed of
this system and additional upper level elements will impact how
much or how little rainfall we receive and at what point
conditions improve across the state. Similar to the previous
forecast, there are still a notable spread in QPF values with the
latest ensemble plumes and box/whisker plots showing anywhere from
0.5 to 1.5 inches of QPF. For now plan for periods of rain and
perhaps a few thunderstorms to be the story early next week,
particularly between Tuesday and Wednesday. Definitely something
to keep in mind especially if you`re planning any holiday travels.
Stay tuned for updates.

Temperatures will remain warm/mild through most of next week with
forecast highs ranging from the upper 60s in North Georgia to upper
70s (near 80) across Central Georgia. Forecast lows will still hover
in the 50s to low 60s. Any cool down will occur in wake of the
frontal passage likely late next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Clouds diminishing but still seeing some MVFR to VFR readings
across the area. Clouds are expected to continue to diminish and
clear out tonight and stay VFR through the rest of the period.
Winds are out of the W to NW in the 6-12kt range with gust to
20kt. Winds will weaken overnight into the 4-8kt range with
enhanced speeds and gust again Sun afternoon. May see a few
isolated showers as the front continues to move through the area,
but not expecting them to affect the TAF sites. No restrictions
to VSBYs expected.


//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          53  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   0
Atlanta         53  71  47  70 /   0   0   0   0
Blairsville     46  66  38  63 /  10   0   0   0
Cartersville    50  70  42  70 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus        54  75  48  76 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     53  72  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
Macon           54  76  46  75 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            52  73  43  74 /   0   0   0   0
Peachtree City  52  72  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
Vidalia         58  78  49  75 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...96
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...01