Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 031934
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
334 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
MOIST AND RELATIVELY FAST (35-45KT) ZONAL LOW TO MID LVL FLOW
CONTINUES TO SEND ONE IMPULSE AFTER ANOTHER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
REGION...SUPPORTING THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY.

TIMING/DURATION/INTENSITY OF EACH "ROUND" HAS BEEN CHALLENGING GIVEN
RAPID FLUCTUATIONS WITH MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT. THE AREA IS IN A BIT
OF LULL THIS AFTERNOON BUT EXPECT THINGS TO PICK BACK UP LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS NEXT S/W APPROACHES. MODELS ACTUALLY IN
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS WAVE OVERNIGHT...WITH THE NAM BEING
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A 1-3 INCH MAX OF 6-HOUR PRECIP FROM
CENTRAL AL TO NORTHEAST GA BTWN 06-12Z/SAT. TRACK OF S/W ENERGY AND
BEST LOW LVL CONVG SEEM TO SUPPORT THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS
NORTH GA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SAT.

ANY BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED ON SATURDAY AS UPR LVL
LOW STRENGTHENS OVER NRN MS/WRN TN AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. FAVORABLE
MOISTURE/ENERGY ADVECTION WITHIN PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS
AL/GA BY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS UPR LOW APPROACHES
EASTERN TENNESSEE BY 12Z/SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT. FLOOD PRONE AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GA...
WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING THROUGH SUNDAY. EACH
ROUND OF RAIN /TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT/ COULD BRING AT
LEAST AN INCH WITH ISOLD AMOUNTS UP TO 2 INCHES. ROUGH ESTIMATE OF
THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WILL BE ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF A CARROLLTON TO MARIETTA TO GAINESVILLE LINE...BUT
CERTAINLY THIS IS NOT EXACT.

GIVEN MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND LIMITED HEATING DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN...SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE LOW. HOWEVER...SIMILAR TO
TODAY...IF OUTFLOW-DRIVEN BROKEN LINE/WEAK QLCS ROLLS INTO MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH AND EAST OF ATL...EXPECT A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUING TO BE
PRIMARY THREAT.

DJN.83


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

BY MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL DRIER AIR NOTED FOR THE NORTHERN
CWA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING TO 1.4 INCHES. OVERALL WOULD
EXPECT THIS TO RESULT IN A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF STORMS OVER
PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLAN ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO CURRENTLY ADVERTISED
MID TO HIGH END CHANCE GRIDS. DRIER AIR CONTINUES FOR TUESDAY
BEFORE ERODING AWAY AND GIVING WAY TO CONTINUED HIGH MOISTURE
ATMOSPHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. WITH MID AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS MUCH
REDUCED THROUGH THE PERIOD AND DIURNALLY FAVORED CHANCE POPS LOOK
SUFFICE FOR THE GRIDS. REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

DEESE


&&

39

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
BRIEF LULL IN THE ACTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN I-16 AND I-20. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
OVER ALABAMA MOVING EAST ALONG/NORTH OF I-20 SHOULD AFFECT ATL
METRO AREA BETWEEN 19-20Z. LOOK FOR JUST BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WITH POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAIN...BEFORE SPOTTY -SHRA FOLLOW THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA TO IMPACT AREA/ATL
AFT 06Z TONIGHT. COULD SEE ONGOING SHOWERS BEHIND INITIAL PUSH OF
STORMS THAT LINGER THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ANY STORMS WILL HAVE
CAPABILITY OF <2SM VSBY WITH +RA AND BRIEF WIND GUSTS 20-30KTS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OF ON ALL ELEMENTS

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          69  87  71  86 /  50  50  40  50
ATLANTA         70  85  72  83 /  50  50  50  60
BLAIRSVILLE     64  77  65  78 /  60  70  60  60
CARTERSVILLE    68  83  70  82 /  60  70  70  60
COLUMBUS        72  89  72  87 /  30  50  40  50
GAINESVILLE     68  82  70  81 /  60  60  50  60
MACON           71  92  71  88 /  30  50  30  50
ROME            69  83  70  83 /  70  70  60  60
PEACHTREE CITY  70  86  71  84 /  40  50  40  60
VIDALIA         73  93  73  92 /  30  50  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...BUTTS...CRAWFORD...
DODGE...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAMAR...LAURENS...
MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...PEACH...PIKE...PULASKI...PUTNAM...
SPALDING...TALIAFERRO...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
UPSON...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKINSON.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...COBB...DADE...DAWSON...DEKALB...DOUGLAS...
FANNIN...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...GORDON...GWINNETT...HALL...
HARALSON...JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MURRAY...NORTH FULTON...
OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...SOUTH FULTON...
TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DEESE
AVIATION...DJN.83


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