Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 280617
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
117 AM EST Tue Feb 28 2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 849 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017/
Rain is continuing to push southward through central Georgia. This
will continue this evening. North Georgia should remain dry for
the rest of this evening however showers are expected to redevelop
across extreme north Georgia late tonight. Will take out pops
across north GA for the rest of this evening and slowly end them
across central Georgia. Have also adjusted min temps per current
PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 PM EST Mon Feb 27 2017/
.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
The band of showers extending across the forecast area continued to
drift slowly to the south this afternoon. Showers should gradually
spread into central GA this evening...but will continue to encounter
somewhat drier air to the north and east. Showers appear to be in
association with an upper short wave which will cross GA this
afternoon and evening. Have tried to base pops on radar for the next
several hours. Evolution of showers is uncertain overnight since
there is some lingering moisture in the southerly flow aloft. Have
left slight chance pops for much of the forecast area tonight. For
Tuesday another short wave approaching from the TN valley and low
level flow becomes more southerly. Have included a better chance for
showers and a few thunderstorms mainly across north GA for Tuesday.
Isolated thunder possible into the afternoon south of KCSG to KMCN.
Airmass is basically stable over the remainder of the area due to
predominant easterly flow. Instability increases on Tuesday with
increasing southerly flow so have mentioned thunder area wide.
.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
No major changes made to the extended forecast. The main concern
is still the strong cold front forecast to move across the CWA
starting late Wednesday but most so Wednesday night. Some timing
differences with the front are seen in the models with the GFS a
fair bit faster than the Nam or European. The Storm Prediction
Center has included an enhanced risk area for severe storms over
the far NW including the counties of Floyd...Gordon Murray and
counties to the NW. A slight risk area is indicated into central
GA with a marginal risk area for the farther southern portions of
the cwa S and E of WRB. See SPC`s day 3 outlook. Potential for
35-45 kts of low level shear along with a 50 kt 850mb jet along
and 500-1000 of cape and a mid level short wave. The main hazard
with be damaging winds. Tornadoes will also be possible close to
the enhanced risk area. Highest pops and storm potential will be
later Wednesday and Wednesday evening.
Storms end most so Wednesday evening and night with a mostly dry
forecast thereafter. Temperatures will be well above normal until
the front moves through.
Initial MVFR to IFR cigs building into sites from the west along
with potential for MVFR or lower VSBYs. Cannot rule out cigs
getting into LIFR or KATL being near 400 ft this morning but will
monitor trends if amendment for lower is warranted. Otherwise see
gradual lifting this afternoon and possible scattering out to
mainly alto deck by 00z Wednesday then another overnight round of
MVFR or lower cigs and reduced VSBYs. Winds initially light ESE to
calm then SE 7-10 kts into this afternoon with a SSW shift
expected near KATL after 19z. Any precip chances for this fcst
cycle should stay north of the sites.
//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on overall cig trends and morning VSBYs.
High on all else.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 74 60 76 44 / 20 20 70 70
Atlanta 74 62 77 44 / 20 30 70 70
Blairsville 65 56 69 36 / 40 50 70 70
Cartersville 71 60 74 41 / 30 40 90 70
Columbus 79 62 78 49 / 20 10 30 70
Gainesville 69 59 71 42 / 30 30 70 70
Macon 81 59 80 50 / 20 10 20 70
Rome 71 59 74 40 / 40 50 90 50
Peachtree City 75 59 74 43 / 20 20 50 70
Vidalia 83 63 83 58 / 20 10 20 70