Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 281840
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
240 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

DRIER AIR IS SPREADING OVER THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD. THIS HAS BROUGHT AN END TO THE PRECIP ACROSS NORTH GA AND
IT WILL RAPIDLY END THE PRECIP ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING.
THE DRY AND STABLE AIR WILL HOLD OVER THE CWA THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE
WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHEAST AND BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT TO MAINLY NORTH GEORGIA.
WITH A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FEW CLOUDS...TEMPS
WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

17


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

EXTENDED FORECAST TRENDS REMAIN BASICALLY UNCHANGED...AND ALSO A BIT
UNCERTAIN. LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SYSTEM STILL LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGIN RAMPING UP SATURDAY...PEAK SUNDAY AND
DIMINISH BY MONDAY. ALL-IN-ALL I HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE LONG TERM FORECAST GRIDS FOR THIS CYCLE...BUT HAVE LEFT THE
BASIC TRENDS UNCHANGED.

PLEASE SEE THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

20

PREVIOUS LONG TERM DISCUSSION /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FCST PERIOD STARTS WITH AMPLE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE NORTHERN GULF
AND RETURN OF SHOWER/STORM CHANCES. FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE FOCUSED NEAR A LINGERING WEDGE FRONT
OR OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE NORTH AND THERE IS SOME DECENT
PROGGED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT SO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS MIGHT BE
WARRANTED IN FUTURE UPDATES. STILL LOOKING TO HAVE GREATEST PRECIP
CHANCE/COVERAGE IN THE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER FORCING/JET DYNAMICS PUSH A BIT CLOSER TO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST. NOT QUITE AS MUCH AMPLITUDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS SEEN IN
PREVIOUS SUITES OF GUIDANCE AND THE SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE NOT AS
IMPRESSIVE AS BEFORE...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH HOW
UNSTABLE THE ENVIRONMENT CAN GET WHILE DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE POSSIBLE. THE COMMON FLIES IN THE OINTMENT THAT COULD
BUST PRECIP FCST WOULD BE IF ANY UPSTREAM CONVECTION DISRUPTS
MOISTURE ADVECTION OFF THE NORTHERN GULF OR WEAK PERTURBATIONS AND
REMNANT CLOUD COVERAGE MUDDLES THE SENSITIVE ATMOSPHERE.

FORECAST ACTUALLY GETS TRICKIER MONDAY AND BEYOND GIVEN LARGE
DISCREPANCY AND INCONSISTENCY AMONG LONG TERM SOLUTIONS. KEPT LOW
END CHANCE TO SLIGHT POPS ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH IF ANY PERIOD LOOKS
TO HAVE SOME TYPE OF CONSENSUS FOR SHOWER/STORM POTENTIAL IT WOULD
BE LATE TUESDAY WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...THOUGH STILL BIG DIFFERENCES IN AMPLITUDE AND SHORTWAVE
POTENTIAL.

TEMPS OVERALL SHOULD TREND TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...THEN NEAR NORMS BEYOND...THOUGH EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS
MADE PER AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIFFERENCES.

BAKER

&&


AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST. CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY SCT ACROSS ATL/AHN AND SCT-BKN ACROSS CSG/MCN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ALL AREAS GOING MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. A CU FIELD
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG IN THE CSG/MCN AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL GA WITH THE WHOLE
AREA SINKING INTO SOUTH GA BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT
WESTERLY TO CALM TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

17

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          60  89  59  84 /  10   5  10  30
ATLANTA         63  87  66  82 /  10   5  10  30
BLAIRSVILLE     56  83  55  78 /  10   5  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    58  88  62  81 /  10   5  20  30
COLUMBUS        64  90  66  85 /  20  10  10  20
GAINESVILLE     61  87  62  80 /  10   5  20  30
MACON           62  90  62  87 /  20  10  10  20
ROME            57  89  61  81 /  10   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  57  87  61  82 /  10  10  10  20
VIDALIA         66  91  67  89 /  40   5   5  20

&&


.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...17



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