Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 300736
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
336 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016

.SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...
No significant change to the general...overall pattern from the past
few days through the end of the short term forecast period. Weak
upper-level troughing continues across the region with a persistent
surface trough across the forecast area. Models show better moisture
spreading into our Central Georgia counties and I expect a better
coverage of scattered convection across that area today. I have
taken a few degrees off max temperatures across Central Georgia
zones as a result and we should remain below Heat Advisory criteria
today and Sunday. No strong dynamic forcing and instability remains
moderate at best so severe thunderstorms are not expected. POPs are
more uniform across the area this cycle and continue to show a
diurnal maximum during the late afternoon.

20

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...
Mid to long-range models show good agreement with a weak long
wave trough drifting along the Appalachians and dragging a weak
frontal boundary into the TN Valley Region by late Monday. This
coupled with subtle disturbances traversing through the upper
trough should enhance our chances for at least mainly diurnal
driven convection on Monday and Monday night. The upper trough
pushes off the Atlantic coast on Tuesday while high pressure
builds east from TX. This results in a weak frontal boundary
possibly sagging into central GA by late Tuesday while a weak
northwest flow becomes established aloft. This will likely result
in less rain chances across north GA and maybe low scattered
coverage across central GA for at least Tuesday and Wednesday next
week. Weak disturbances in the northwest flow aloft and increasing
low level moisture may help increase rain chances by Thursday and
Friday just a bit... but still much uncertainty on just how much
influence the ridge pushing in from the west will have on things.

Otherwise... weak shear and only moderate instability continues
to support mainly afternoon and evening general thunderstorms...
with nothing widespread or organized severe expected through the
long term.

The expected increase in clouds and rain chances should help hold
temps closer to seasonal normals on Monday... then this trend may
continue into mid week as a slightly cooler northwest flow becomes
established.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED AT 140 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2016/
06Z Update...
Small area of diminishing convection moving across the KATL
vicinity at this time will be past by 07Z. Although there is a
slight chance of an isolated shower...or even a
thunderstorm...anywhere across the forecast area through this
forecast period...the better chances will be between 16Z and 02Z.
Mainly VFR conditions are expected across the forecast area
through the majority of this forecast period outside of any
convection. Could see some local to scattered MVFR or lower
conditions developing between 06Z and 14Z. Chances for impacts at
the TAF sites not high enough to include for now. Winds will
remain west to southwest through the period...generally 6KT or
less through 14Z then increasing to 6-10kt after.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...

Medium confidence concerning extent and timing of any MVFR or lower
ceilings this morning and coverage of convection this afternoon/
evening...otherwise high all other elements.

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          94  73  93  73 /  40  30  30  30
Atlanta         91  75  91  75 /  40  30  40  30
Blairsville     87  67  87  67 /  40  30  40  30
Cartersville    91  71  91  72 /  40  30  30  30
Columbus        94  74  94  75 /  40  30  40  30
Gainesville     90  74  92  72 /  30  30  30  30
Macon           95  74  94  74 /  40  30  40  30
Rome            91  71  92  72 /  40  30  30  30
Peachtree City  92  71  91  72 /  40  30  40  30
Vidalia         97  76  96  75 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...20


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