Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 250541

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
141 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1028 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017/


Have made what is hopefully the final update to the pops this
evening. Frontal boundary currently moving through the metro at
this hour with a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms along
its leading edge. Residual instability across central GA should
allow for continued development there even into the overnight
period, but believe coverage will decrease to scattered with time.
Only other updates have been to the diurnal trend in hourly temps
where the bkn line of precip continues to wreak havoc on these


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 822 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/...

Models in pretty good agreement with bringing the cold front into
north Georgia this evening and through central Georgia later
tonight. Showers have developed along the front across Alabama and
into northwest Georgia. This will continue the rest of this
afternoon as the cold front moves into the northern part of the CWA.
The precipitation will come to an end across north Georgia this
evening as the front moves into central Georgia. Much drier air will
spread across north Georgia. Dewpoints are expected to drop into 50s
and 60s across north Georgia by Sunday morning. The front will stall
across south Georgia Sunday and due to proximity there will remain a
risk of showers and thunderstorms across parts of central Georgia
through Sunday and much of Sunday night.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 333 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/...

Minor adjustments to late period pops as models indicate gradual
moisture return in wake of early week ridging. By Friday and
Saturday should have overall general chance showers/storms area-
wide. Otherwise general refresh of latest guidance blend results
in little change from fcst. Previous discussion follows...


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 740 AM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017/

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

The aforementioned front that interacted with remnant moisture
from TS Cindy will finally sag south of the area to start the long
term. The boundary placement will truly dictate the amount of
thunderstorm coverage seen across the southern portion of central
GA Monday afternoon. Based on the strength of the incoming surface
high, feel the boundary should push far enough south to only have
slight chance pops across the far southeastern portion of the
CWA. High pressure will continue to build into the area from the
north helping to keep much of the area dry through mid-week as the
boundary exits our region to the south.

There is a bit model discrepancy in terms of shower and
thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. A few of the model
solutions illustrate enough moisture associated with a mid level
trough to resolve scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially
across the higher terrain. With little model continuity to build
confidence at this point, have kept Tuesday dry. However, will
need to watch this impulse to see if it has enough moisture and
dynamics to support precipitation. Honestly, it is rare to see
such a progressive pattern this time of year, but it can not be
ruled out. Otherwise, expect fairly quiet conditions through
Wednesday night as the surface high shifts offshore. Return flow
will develop in earnest by Thursday afternoon helping to initiate
diurnal convection, especially across western GA with better
surface convergence and mid-level support noted. Better coverage
of showers and thunderstorms by Friday as mid level impulses
riding the ridge move northeast through GA.

Temperatures will be pleasant for this time of year, running a
couple degrees below normal. It will feel even better given the
lack of humidity that often plagues the region in the summer.



06Z Update...
A front is slowing moving south across the region tonight.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to move across
central GA at this hour. Therefore, KCSG and KMCN will be dealing
a bit more with cigs and vsby issues accompanying vcsh. While
KAHN is north of much of the precipitation, it south of the front
and will likely not realize the drying that the metro TAF sites
will undergo through the next several hours. Therefore, feel this
area will observe reduced vsbys and low stratus before sunrise.
The front will continue to move south through the morning hours
helping to improve conditions. The front will become hung up
across central/southern GA with some scattered convection possible
Sunday. However, much of the activity should stay south of all
the TAF sites with diurnal CU most noted over the southern TAF
sites. Winds will be generally from the NW through the period.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Moderate for fog/stratus across the eastern most TAF sites.
High on remaining elements.



Athens          88  63  85  63 /  10  10  10   5
Atlanta         85  63  83  64 /   5  10   5   5
Blairsville     81  54  77  55 /   5   5   5   5
Cartersville    84  59  83  61 /   5   5   5   5
Columbus        89  66  87  66 /  20  10  10   5
Gainesville     85  61  82  62 /   5   5   5   5
Macon           90  65  87  64 /  30  10  10   5
Rome            85  59  84  61 /   5   5   5   5
Peachtree City  86  60  84  61 /  10  10   5   5
Vidalia         91  71  86  68 /  60  50  20  10




LONG TERM....Baker
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