Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
FXUS62 KFFC 241100 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
600 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017
.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 255 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017/
SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...
Quiet weather in store today as a weak ridge of dry high pressure
drifts over the area by days end. This will allow for the continued
elevated winds for some areas to diminish during the day. Clouds over
portions of n and w GA in the NW low level flow have been stubborn to
dissipate but are expected to do so during the day as well.
A weak cold front is forecast to move to the TN valley late Wednesday
with increasing clouds expected for mostly the n and w cwa and small
chances for late day showers over the far nw. No significant instability
is forecast with this front so only a chance of showers is expected.
A warm up is expected to occur this short term period. Forecast
high temperatures are running 5-9 degrees above normal today
and about 13-15 degrees above normal for Wednesday. Forecast low
temperatures are running 6-9 degrees above normal for tonight.
Overall confidence is high.
LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...
Quick moving system sweeping into the area as the extended forecast
period begins. Upper trough is lifting and filling somewhat as it
approaches, but still should manage to push a decent cold front
through the state Wednesday night and Thursday. Even with weakening
upper support and limited moisture we should see at least scattered
showers along and ahead of the front, entering northwest Georgia by
Wednesday evening and progressing south and east across the forecast
area overnight. Some lingering precipitation chances Thursday, but
the best chances push east of the area by afternoon. GFS leaves some
residual, light, wrap-around QPF across the north into Thursday
night but the ECMWF and HPC QPF keeps any measurable precipitation
north of the state and I am inclined to follow that lead for now.
Wednesday night precipitation appears to remain liquid as best cold
air remains northwest of the better precipitation chances, but it is
not impossible for a little wintry precipitation to mix in across
the north Georgia mountains. No significant accumulations would be
expected. The remainder of the extended forecast remains seasonably
cool and mainly dry at this time. GFS has been trying to squeeze out
some light QPF across the north Sunday night into Monday with the
passing of another quick moving short wave brushing the area. ECMWF
and HPC continue to lean toward a drier solution and I have as well,
but once again this is something we will need to keep an eye on for
any trends indicating a slightly wetter solution. Atmosphere would
definitely be cold enough for wintry precipitation, albeit light.
MVFR ceilings over NNW GA into the ATL area will dissipate this
morning and by midday-ish. Otherwise VFR with clear or nearly
clear skies expected. Surface winds mainly NW 8-15kts with gusts
15-25 kts...diminishing during the day then calm or light winds
//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence for timing of dissipating ceilings.
High confidence all other elements.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens 63 41 69 47 / 0 0 5 40
Atlanta 59 44 68 45 / 0 0 5 40
Blairsville 54 38 63 40 / 0 0 10 50
Cartersville 56 41 67 42 / 0 0 10 50
Columbus 63 43 72 48 / 0 0 5 40
Gainesville 59 43 66 44 / 0 0 5 40
Macon 63 41 71 51 / 0 0 5 40
Rome 58 41 67 42 / 0 0 20 50
Peachtree City 60 41 69 45 / 0 0 5 40
Vidalia 65 42 74 55 / 0 0 5 30