Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 031911
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
311 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015


.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH
GA WITH A FEW OF THEM BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. LOOKING AT THE
CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP YOU CAN CLEARLY SEE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
SPINNING AND MOVING RAPIDLY EAST INTO NORTH GA RIGHT NOW. THERE IS A
FAIRLY LARGE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SPINNING UPPER LEVEL LOW
WHICH SHOULD MOVE IN ACROSS THE STATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS
DRY SLOT SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THESE STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN ACROSS
THE STATE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM BUT WITH LIMITED UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT SHOULD SEE LESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM ALSO.

01


.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LATEST GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING A WEDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT THU SEP 3 2015/
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER LOW/TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE SE US THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS HAS THE TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWARD DURING EARLY/MIDDLE NEXT
WEEK WHILE THE ECMWF DAMPENS THE TROUGH OUT TEMPORARILY AND GOING
TOWARDS A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN.

AT THE SURFACE...A PRETTY DECENT WEDGE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. THE WEDGE WILL LEAD TO CLOUDIER
SKIES...SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS AND HIGH CHANCE
POPS.

THE WEDGE DOES LOOK TO ERODE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
PROGGING A FRONT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FOR NOW BUT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH GA AS WELL. THESE
STORMS SHOULD STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES BUT RYY AND PDK
MAY BE AFFECTED. PUT A TEMPO IN ALL OF THE ATL AREA TAFS JUST TO
BE ON THE SAFE SIDE BUT HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL
AFFECT ATL AT ALL. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NW AND STAY THERE THROUGH
TONIGHT. WILL SEE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NE JUST AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL STAY 10KT OR LESS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  93  70  86 /  20  30  30  50
ATLANTA         72  91  72  88 /  20  30  20  50
BLAIRSVILLE     64  86  65  82 /  10  50  30  50
CARTERSVILLE    68  92  69  89 /  10  30  10  40
COLUMBUS        73  93  73  91 /  20  20  10  40
GAINESVILLE     70  89  70  84 /  20  30  30  50
MACON           70  92  71  89 /  20  30  20  50
ROME            68  92  69  89 /  10  20  10  40
PEACHTREE CITY  69  91  69  88 /  20  30  10  50
VIDALIA         73  92  73  89 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...01



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