Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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FXUS62 KFFC 240208 AAB
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1008 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT
FOR HOURLY TRENDS.

11

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER AS THE H5 RIDGE
SHIFTS JUST EAST OF THE CWA AND THE ATLANTIC MOISTURE
RETURNS...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE CWA.
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THEN AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT OR NEAR NORMAL FOR HIGHS WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS GETTING BACK TO NORMAL.

17

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
/ISSUED 354 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
LONG TERM PATTERN FAIRLY STATIC OVER THE SE CONUS IN SPITE OF
MODERATELY STRONG MEAN FLOW ACROSS THE MID LATITUDES. SW FLOW
ALOFT WEST OF SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO PERSIST THRU THURS. 12Z GFS
STILL HANGING ON TO WEAK TROF AXIS LINGERING OVER GA ON THUR WHILE
MOST OTHER MED RANGE MODELS WASH THIS FEATURE OUT...NOT MUCH
DIFFERENCE TO POPS EITHER WAY THOUGH. A LITTLE BIT OF DRYING ON
FRI/SAT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MATTER. SCT DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA LIKELY
THRU THE PERIOD. MORE LIKELY OVER WRN COUNTIES MON/TUES BUT AREA-
WIDE REST OF THE WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
UPDATED GRIDS WITH NEW MODEL BLENDS WITH EXTRA WEIGHTING GIVEN TO
HIGHER PERFORMING MODELS.

SNELSON

PREVIOUS LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
/ISSUED 320 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/ A SERIES OF UPR LVL
SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP S/SW FLOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
PORTIONS OF N/CNTRL GA BY MEMORIAL DAY...INCREASING THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY IN THE WEEK...UPR RIDGE REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE ALONG THE CAROLINA/MID ATLANTIC COAST...WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST BY MIDWEEK AS EJECTING
LONGWAVE TROUGH CROSSES THE MID MS VALLEY/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THE
POSITION OF THIS RIDGE WILL HAVE AN INFLUENCE ON AREA
POPS/COVERAGE OF CONVECTION...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE/DYNAMICS WEST
OF I-75. THE RIDGE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE MUCH THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AS IT BECOMES "SANDWICHED" BETWEEN A MIGRATING /WEST/ CUT-OFF
LOW IN THE ATLANTIC AND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK WEEK (THURS/FRI)...REMNANT DEEPER
MOISTURE PLUME COUPLED WITH WEAK S/W ENERGY AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION. WILL ALSO BE
MONITORING UPR WAVE/LOW NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS AS IT IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT DEVIATE MUCH DAY TO DAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
60S TO NEAR 70F AS HIGHER HUMIDITY RETURNS ACROSS THE STATE.

DJN.83

AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
/ISSUED 739 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/
MAIN UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TAFS ARE THE LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING. GUIDANCE IS POINTING TOWARDS SCT-BKN CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING AT MOST OF THE TAF SITES...BUT IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THE
LOWER CLOUDS WILL REMAIN WEST OF AHN. HAVE HINTED AT THIS FOR
KNOW WITH SCT...BUT BKN IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WIND AND VSBY.
LOW CONFIDENCE ON CIGS DUE TO LOW CLOUDS POTENTIAL SUNDAY
MORNING.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          54  83  64  82 /   5   5  20  40
ATLANTA         61  82  68  80 /   5   5  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     53  79  59  76 /   5   5  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    55  83  65  81 /   5   5  20  40
COLUMBUS        63  87  68  85 /   5   5  20  50
GAINESVILLE     57  81  64  79 /   5   5  20  40
MACON           58  87  65  86 /   5   5  20  50
ROME            56  82  66  82 /   5   5  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  54  84  65  82 /   5   5  20  50
VIDALIA         62  86  68  85 /   5   5  20  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...11


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