Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

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569
FXUS62 KFFC 072333 AAA
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
633 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.EVENING UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING AS CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS ON TRACK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
INTO FAR NW GA TOWARD MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. /39


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS... /ISSUED AT 339 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF NE GEORGIA MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AND POSSIBLE
BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

MAIN FOCUS ON ACCUMULATING SNOW POTENTIAL FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH
GEORGIA BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH INITIAL
FRONTAL FORCING THEN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SCATTERED COLD AIR
ADVECTIVE FORCING NEAR THE CENTER OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH. VERY
TRICKY FCST TO GAIN ANY CONFIDENCE FOR SNOW AMOUNTS OTHER THAN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN NE GEORGIA WHERE PROFILES SUPPORT ENOUGH LOW
LEVEL SATURATION AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TO GET CONVECTIVE
SUPPORT. SFC TEMPS ALSO MAKE IT TRICKY SINCE SOUNDINGS ALL SUPPORT
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION FOR P-TYPE THOUGH MANY AREAS OUTSIDE OF FAR
NE GEORGIA ARE TOO WARM MONDAY FOR ANY SNOW TO STICK. EVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE STRUGGLES TO SATURATE BELOW 850/900 MB SO DIFFICULT TO SAY
HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SNOW WOULD BE OF IMPACT. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
OVERALL QPF EXTENT HAS BEEN TRENDING LOWER THAN BEFORE SO FOCUS HAS
SHIFTED MAINLY TO THE FAR NE. STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT BAND OF
SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES THAT COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION
ANYWHERE ELSE IN NORTH GEORGIA BY TUESDAY BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO EVEN WEIGH IN ON THAT WITH LATE PERIOD POPS.

ALL IN ALL HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 1-2 INCHES IN
THE FAR NE WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE...ESP ON THE NW
FACING SLOPES DUE TO THE PERSISTENT PROGGED FETCH AROUND THE
AFOREMENTIONED LOW MAINLY MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AREAS OF BLACK ICE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY DUE TO LIKELY REFREEZING OF PREVIOUS RAIN OR MELTED
SNOW EARLIER IN THE PERIOD.


BAKER


LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED. BROAD UPPER TROUGH ROTATING OVER
THE EASTERN STATES...WITH MOISTURE PUSHING DOWN INTO THE TN
VALLEY SHOULD START TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW POPS CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY
EVENING BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD PULL OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX EXPECTED WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING EVEN THOUGH MODELS DIFFER ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INVOLVED IN A SHORT WAVE THAT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.


41

/ISSUED 321 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/...
THE MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A WARM UP
TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IS EXPECTED BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...WITH DRY CONDITIONS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE/TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. A SECONDARY LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH SUNDAY...AND REMAIN OVER THE GULF STATES THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK. A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION TO MORE OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED PRECIP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT SUNDAY WITH NW SURFACE
FLOW.

HOWEVER...WITH THE STRONG TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGGING SOUTH
ON MONDAY...THE OROGRAPHICALLY PRODUCED PRECIP WILL BE ENHANCED BY
SOME MID LEVEL FORCING LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY.

ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH ALOFT FOR SNOW...AND ICING
OR WIDESPREAD SLEET IS NOT EXPECTED. RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW OUTSIDE
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE POPS EARLY MONDAY EVENING...BUT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW BEFORE 10PM. PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY...WITH ALL SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS NORTHERN GA...WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIX POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

THE LATEST QPF PROGS HAVE NO MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS THE ATL METRO
FOR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS NOT UNREASONABLE SINCE
THE ATMOS WILL BE PRETTY DRY. THE BEST ACCUMULATION VALUES WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...VALUES ARE AN
INCH OR LESS THROUGH 36 HOURS. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ARE AVERAGING ONE TO TWO INCHES.

EVEN THOUGH SNOW AND OR A SNOW/RAIN MIX IS IN THE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.... SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL
REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. PWATS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH (OR LESS) THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SO...EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE THE
FORCING...THERE WON`T BE MUCH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
GA...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MTNS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR BLACK ICE WILL BE HIGH...ESPECIALLY FROM THE METRO
ATLANTA AREA NORTHWARD THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANY LINGERING MOISTURE ON
THE ROADS IS EXPECTED TO RE-FREEZE OVERNIGHT AND POSSIBLY CAUSE
SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET. THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...CHANCES
REMAIN TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...BUT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL SPREAD MVFR CIGS INTO ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 12-14Z MON.
EXPECT THESE CIGS TO IMPROVE TO VFR MID LEVEL CIGS BY 18Z MON ALONG
THE A CHANCE OF SPOTTY -SHRA THRU THE AFTERNOON. VFR MID LEVEL CIGS
PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 00Z TUE WHEN MVFR CIGS SPREAD BACK IN ALONG
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED -SHSN. CURRENT NW WINDS AROUND 5-
7KTS WILL BACK MORE WEST BY 06-09Z MON... AND REMAIN MAINLY WESTERLY
ON MON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 10-15KTS BY 18Z WITH OCNL
HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MONDAY AFTERNOON VFR CIG.
LOW ON PRECIP CHANCE/TYPE LATE IN PERIOD.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          35  52  28  39 /   5  40  40  10
ATLANTA         37  50  29  36 /  10  30  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     31  43  23  30 /  20  60  60  50
CARTERSVILLE    34  49  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
COLUMBUS        35  54  31  42 /   5  20  20   5
GAINESVILLE     36  49  27  34 /  10  50  50  20
MACON           34  56  30  43 /   5  30  30   5
ROME            34  48  27  35 /  20  40  40  20
PEACHTREE CITY  34  51  28  37 /  10  30  30  10
VIDALIA         36  58  33  46 /   0  20  20   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM MONDAY TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DAWSON...FANNIN...GILMER...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...TOWNS...UNION...WHITE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BAKER/39
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...39



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