Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS62 KFFC 010542
AFDFFC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
142 AM EDT WED APR 1 2015



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1054 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...
MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE SETTLED DOWN AND ARE NO LONGER PRODUCING
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STRONGER STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO PUT OUT 1/4
TO 1/2 INCH HAIL AND THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE TRAIN OF STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE OUT OF AL AND INTO
GA...ACROSS THE SAME AREA THEY HAVE BEEN MOVING ALL EVENING. WILL
THEREFORE ALLOW THE WATCH TO EXPIRE AT 11 PM. THE BAND OF
CONVECTION WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER 06Z HOWEVER LOCAL RADAR
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS/POSSIBLY TSTORMS TO
MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN GA LATE TONIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE
BUT HAVE KEPT IT TO SHOWERS FOR LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME.

UPDATE...
/ISSUED 718 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. MULTIPLE REPORTS OF NICKEL
TO JUST OVER QUARTER SIZE HAIL HAVE OCCURRED WITH STORMS MOVING
INTO MODERATELY UNSTABLE /1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE/ ENVIRONMENT.
JUST RECEIVED REPORT OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL NEAR LA GRANGE.

BASED ON THIS AND DISCUSSION WITH SPC/SURROUNDING OFFICES
(BMX)...DECIDED TO EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 11 PM
EDT.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
LATEST ANALYSIS AND HIRES MODEL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE MID EVENING HOURS... AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE INTERACTS WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AN OLD BOUNDARY STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL
GA. A FEW OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...
WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES... COLD AIR ALOFT AND MID LEVEL
DRY AIR ALL SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL... STRONG
DOWNBURST WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
EXPECT THE MAIN SEVERE STORM THREAT TO BE BETWEEN 4 PM AND 10 PM
TODAY... AND GENERALLY IN AND AROUND THE WATCH AREA...WHICH MEANS
ATLANTA METRO AREA IS CLOSE... SO CANNOT RULE OUT A SEVERE STORM
BRUSHING THE DOWNTOWN ATLANTA AREA. ALL INTEREST ARE ENCOURAGED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE EVENING. HAVE
UPDATED ZONES TO HEADLINE THE WATCH.

OTHERWISE... THE UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST TONIGHT... WHICH
WILL INCREASE RIDGING OVERHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL HELP
REDUCE ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY... EXCEPT MAYBE
DOWN ALONG THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES IN CENTRAL GA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD ONTO A LOW CHANCE NEAR COLUMBUS TO MACON AND
SOUTHWARD WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... BUT SUSPECT THE GREATER CHANCES
WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL WARRANT A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ZONES
AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT... WITH INCREASING CHANCES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

A MAV AND MET BLEND ON TEMPS LOOKED GOOD THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...
SO DID NOT STRAY FAR.

39

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 249 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015/
NO CHANGES PLANNED TO EXTENDED PORTIONS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES NOTED WITH SYSTEM FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR NEXT WEEK GFS BULLISH ON BRINGING GULF
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN POPS
ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GA TN LINE AND WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SLOWLY SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR CHANGES
TO THE ONGOING TAFS NEEDED. THUNDER WILL CONTINUE AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINAL SITES FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NOT CONFIDENT THAT LOW CIGS
WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE RAIN...BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SCT MVFR DECK
IN UNTIL DAYBREAK. WINDS WILL GO NW BY MID MORNING...AND THEN
SHOULD GO EAST/SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE SHOWING SOME
SIGNS OF A LOW CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          79  53  72  60 /  10  20  50  40
ATLANTA         77  57  72  60 /  20  20  40  30
BLAIRSVILLE     73  49  62  56 /  10  20  70  40
CARTERSVILLE    78  56  73  58 /  10  20  50  30
COLUMBUS        80  57  80  58 /  50  20  40  20
GAINESVILLE     76  53  67  58 /  10  20  50  40
MACON           81  54  77  59 /  40  20  40  20
ROME            78  54  74  59 /  10  20  50  30
PEACHTREE CITY  79  53  75  58 /  30  20  40  20
VIDALIA         80  58  79  61 /  50  20  30  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.