056
FXUS63 KFGF 230515
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1115 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Impacts to holiday travel are possible Tuesday and Wednesday
  with a 50% chance of minor (advisory type) winter impacts.

- Below average temperatures arrive after Wednesday, with a more
  active precipitation pattern possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Skies remain partly to mostly cloudy this evening with a
continued eastward push of clouds. Impacts are not expected to
develop overnight as even if any precipitation falls from this
wave, then amounts will be minimal.

UPDATE
Issued at 515 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Higher level clouds are pushing in from the west as a weak wave
approaches the area. Forcing and moisture content is weak so
precipitation is not expected overnight. The forecast remains on
track with winds continuing to diminish overnight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 203 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

...Synopsis...

Well above average temperatures are forecast Sunday, with most
locations well into the 40s and 50s. Some locations within the
Red River Valley may touch the 60 degree mark. A weak cold
front pass through Sunday night lower daytime temperatures some
Monday, but still remain above average.

Conditions become more winter-like starting around Tuesday,
lasting through the end of the forecast period late next week.
This includes potential for winter impacts during holiday travel
period, as well as a switch to below average temperatures well
below freezing. More details can be found below.

...Potential winter impacts to holiday travel conditions...

Valid Tuesday and Wednesday, ensemble guidance still strongly
agrees in a northern stream shortwave trough interacting with a
southern stream shortwave trough/former Southwest cut-off upper
low within the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes
regions. This will bring snow accumulation along with increased
winds and colder temperatures, leading to some degree of winter
impacts.

However, there is still noteworthy uncertainty in location and
magnitude of winter impacts.

While ensemble guidance has converged some in potential
outcomes compared to the previous 24 hours, there are still
noteworthy differences. Uncertainty in synoptic evolution
mainly stems from lowered predictability associated with
interactions between the northern and southern stream waves.
This is a common theme within today`s numerical weather
prediction guidance. Compounding this lowered predictability is
the fact that the eventual northern stream wave still entwined
within the broader cyclonic flow of an upper low over the Gulf
of Alaska. While most ensemble members still cluster toward an
outcome that deposits snow accumulations between 2-4 inches
within our area (generally the 25-75th percentile range among
ensembles), there remains some members that cluster toward
higher snow amounts between 5-9 inches (closer toward the 90th
percentile).

Additionally, there are still some differences in high strong
winds will be as the interacting waves depart. Weaker wave
interaction will result in lesser winds below 30 mph, whereas
stronger wave would result in winds 30-50 mph. More snow
accumulations and stronger winds would lead to higher impacts to
travel conditions. This would have implications on potential
impacts from blowing snow, and is more likely to occur while
snow is falling.

There is a higher potential for impacts to travel given the
expectation of more people traveling occuring 1-2 days before
Thanksgiving holiday.

Additional uncertainties revolving around relatively warm
temperatures in the upper 20s and low 30s as well as relatively
higher moisture content that would drive greatest accumulations
lead to lowered confidence in accumulation efficiency.
Temperatures in this range combined with higher moisture
content commonly succumb to melting/compaction to some degree,
lowering overall snow accumulation potential.

With this being the first large scale snowfall potential of the
season, coming hot off the heels of well above average
temperatures, may allow a scenario where initially light snow
will melt on contact, with accumulation mainly confined to areas
of moderate to heavy snow rates - something that is expected to
be relatively brief given the progressive forward motion of
this/these waves passing through our region.

How much snow accumulates will be important as this will have
implications on lingering impacts behind the wave with increased
winds lingering some behind the departing waves. Should the area
receive larger snow accumulations, the potential for impacts
from blowing snow increases.

There is also uncertainty revolving around how initially warm
surface temperatures may influence impact potential, especially
as it relates to travel impacts. Should initially rain and/or
wet-slushy snow melt on contact before freezing with decreasing
temperatures Tuesday night and beyond, this may introduce a
layer of liquid that turns icy on the surface, increasing
impacts toward travel conditions.

...Well below average temperatures, precipitation potential...

All ensemble guidance agrees mid to late next week beyond
Wednesday will be more winter-like, with below average
temperatures staying below freezing, and potentially dipping
below zero late next week into the following week. There are
varying solutions that continue intermittent waves of light
precipitation over our area with a baroclinic zone lingering
nearby late next week. Some ensemble guidance also depicts a
notable wave ejection out of the West into the central CONUS
around next weekend. Should this occur, additional opportunities
for potential winter impacts would ensue. However, uncertainty
continues even further into this period, particularly in
regards to precipitation potential. Thus predictability and
confidence is too low to comment in more details with respect to
winter impacts.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1113 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Winds will remain generally below 7 knots overnight tonight with
primarily a southwesterly component to the wind, however the
direction may be variable at times due to the lightness of the
base wind. Ceilings will lower but remain VFR this morning,
eventually clearing out by late morning to early afternoon. A
wind shift from southerly winds at 12z to primarily
southwesterly winds by 18-20z is expected to develop for all TAF
sites, with gusts peaking in the range of 15 to 25 knots, mainly
at DVL/FAR/GFK. No other aviation impacts are expected to
develop. Winds will diminish after sunset and become light and
variable once again.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Perroux
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux