498
FXUS63 KFGF 161910
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
110 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The probability for hazardous weather is low through next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 110 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

...Synopsis...

Northwesterly flow today will turn to split flow for the next
several days. This FA will find itself in the middle, under
generally dry and quiet conditions. Towards next weekend, westerly
zonal flow sets up, with no notable waves after Thursday propagating
through. In turn, generally dry and quiet weather will likely
continue through next weekend.

There are only two real chances of precipitation throughout the
forecast period, and both look limited. The first period of
chances are associated with a closed low tracking through the
Central Plains Monday into Tuesday. The main frontogensis band
stays well south of this FA, with the northern fringe just
clipping Grant county. Therefore, have a few low (20%) PoPs in
the forecast for our far southeastern FA late Monday into early
Tuesday, but the expectation is that the vast majority of
precipitation will remain south of our FA.

The next chance at precipitation arrives Thursday, associated with a
passing wave embedded in the northern stream of the split flow
pattern. This wave will be very progressive, and will likely not
close off until it is to our east. Therefore, another
smattering of low (20% to 30%) PoPs are in the forecast for
much of Thursday. Warm temperatures should keep most
precipitation as rain, with a few snowflakes mixing in on the
backside.

Temperature wise we will remain above average over the next week,
with cooler air (but still above average) late week filtering in
behind the Thursday system. This results in high temperatures in the
40s every afternoon. For reference, average high temperatures
this time of the year are in the 30s, dropping rapidly to near
freezing by this time next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

VFR throughout the TAF period. There is a deck of mid
level clouds pushing in from the west, which will impact KDVL
this afternoon, maybe sneaking into KFAR for a few hours towards
late afternoon, but ceilings will remain VFR. The only notable
change over the next 24 hours is a shift in winds, from variable
to a east/southeast direction. Speed however will remain under
10 knots throughout the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty