099
FXUS63 KFGF 201601
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1001 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A more active and cooler pattern arrives next week, but the
  predictability of specific impacts is low.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1001 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Minimal changes made to the short term forecast, mostly
pertaining to cloud cover updates as things slowly clear in
eastern North Dakota this morning.

UPDATE
Issued at 546 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

The surface trough and wind shift are now east of the forecast
area with a west wind shift just occurring at BJI and ADC at
12z. Attention turns to cloud clearing trends today. Clouds are
clearing pretty nicely now into north central North Dakota and
clearing southeast from southern Manitoba toward Langdon. I am
sure adjustments to cloud cover will be needed as the forecast
is updated through the morning/early afternoon. Outside of that
no impactful weather noted today or the next few days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

...Synopsis...

The surface trough and wind shift to the northwest is
progressing eastward overnight and is just west of Baudette to
Fosston to Fergus Falls line. As winds go northwest ceilings
improve and fog goes away. An area of stratocumulus clouds
extend west with back edge of the cloud clearing line entering
far western North Dakota at 08z. This clearing will advance
east today with timing a bit uncertain, but do look for
clearing thru eastern North Dakota midday into early afternoon
and reaching the far eastern forecast area late afternoon.

500 mb flow becomes zonal or slightly west-northwest after this
system passes heading into the weekend. Dry weather is
anticipated Friday through Sunday with highs in the 40s to low
50s.

...Next Week...

Over the past 24-48 hours have noticed a bit faster solution in
regards to the arrival of precip chances and arrival of colder
air. Looking through the various GFS, ECMWF operational runs
and their 00z ensembles there are wide differences. ECMWF
overall maintains a more progressive easterly track through
southern Canada, 00z ECMWF operational run is on the high end of
moisture with snow in Canada and brief snow on backside of
system Tuesday night as it moves out. Ahead of it, if the low
tracks through southern Canada Tuesday daytime in the mild
airmass still with chances for light rain with colder air moving
in from the northwest in the afternoon. GFS and its ensembles
and also the AI-GFS from 00z is indicating a potential merger
of an upper wave moving northeast from central Plains into
Wisconsin Wednesday and brings the northern 500 mb short wave a
bit more south and meets up with this wave over eastern
Minnesota and potential heavier snowfall on back side Tuesday
night-Wednesday. The 00z operational GFS is quite wintry but
looking at the GEFS plumes indicate the operational run is at
the top end of all of the ensemble runs in terms of amount of
snow. And thus 00z GFS and its snowfall showing several inches
over the entire area will be seen as an outlier. The German
ICON model 00z run is weaker with all parameters. A model blend
of NBM was used keeping the main focus north of the border,
though not as intense as the operational ECMWF. With this
solution, impacts remain highly uncertain with very low
predictability. WSSI-P from WPC shows a 20-30 percent chance for
advisory type impacts Tuesday night right along the Canadian
border. NBM probs for 3 inches or more is 15 percent along the
international border. WPC QPF follows NBM QPF with any QPF
limited to low amounts and limited to northern areas.

So in other words, still several days out and will continue to
monitor over the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

MVFR ceiling, exception is lingering IFR ceilings BJI area to
DTL. Overall the IFR will give way to MVFR ceilings this
morning. The question will be cloud clearing trends as we go
through the day with uneven clearing as we have seen the past
few hours. Clearing is progressing fastest through northern
North Dakota at the moment with skies clear now northwest of
Langdon and west of Minot. So adjustments to cloud coverage
trends likely in the TAFs esp for GFK, DVL today.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TT
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle