410
FXUS63 KFGF 010934
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
334 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below average temperatures continue into next week as arctic
  air pushes southward into the Northern Plains and Upper
  Midwest, with periodic light snow and flurry chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 328 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

...Synopsis...

Overall, the upper air pattern changes very little throughout this
week, with northwest flow remaining predominate throughout the
forecast period. Several system riding this flow will pass
through, the strongest appearing to be late week. Each system
will bring a reinforcing shot of arctic air on the backside,
keeping temperatures below average.

...Below Average Temperatures and Light Snow...

There are a couple of players driving the weather over the Northern
Plains early this morning. First is an area of high pressure
situated over over southwestern MN, pushing to the south and east.
This high resulted in very cold overnight minimum temperatures
around midnight. The coldest values occurred in southeastern ND,
where the closer proximity to the high, clear skies and a deep
snowpack resulted in values as low as -16F degrees. As the high
departs, water vapor indicates a very weak shortwave to our
northwest that will pass through today. While this wave will not
bring any meaningful precipitation, it will likely keep cloud cover
(a mix of cirrus and stratus) a bit more prevalent.

Our first real weather maker in the seven day period arrives on
Tuesday. A weak low pressure system/clipper looks to track through
the region, initially ushering in slightly warmer temperatures,
albeit its important to note values will still be a couple of
degrees below average for early December. As the clipper passes
through, light snow will break out, but limited moisture will keep
snowfall totals on the light side (under 2 inches). As the cold
front swings through Tuesday evening, temperatures will plummet,
resulting in high temperature values in the single digits for
Wednesday. Northerly winds will also be breezy to windy, lasting
into Wednesday afternoon.

Thereafter, we remain stuck in northwest flow, so its a rinse and
repeat pattern to end the week. High pressure meanders east
Wednesday night into the Thursday, resulting in our FA seeing
warming out ahead of another system developing in the lee of the
Montana Rockies. Model guidance disagrees on the exact track this
late week system will take, but this one looks to have more moisture
to work with. Plenty to monitor as this system nears. And of course,
as the low departs, yet another arctic high works down,
resulting again in a significant cooldown for next weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1134 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Southwesterly winds continue to bring a threat for stratus to
southwestern portions of our forecast area, although it still
has yet to get close to KFAR. KDVL is being impacted by IFR
stratus and flurries coming off of the lake. Should see the Red
River Valley airports dropping down to MVFR, possibly IFR,
towards tomorrow morning. The ND side should see some
improvement to VFR by the tail end of the period.  The MN
airports will see some brief clearing in the next few hours
before MVFR to IFR ceilings move back in later tomorrow. Can`t
completely rule out some patchy BR or even FG forming, but not
confident enough to put into the TAFs as at this point stratus
seems more likely. Winds will remain mostly southwesterly at
around 10 kts.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...JR