302
FXUS63 KFGF 152339
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
539 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Windy on Tuesday, with gusts up to 55 mph. The highest gusts will
  be in the Devils Lake Basin.

- A strong winter storm will impact the region Wednesday night
  through Thursday, bringing a high chance of blizzard
  conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 152 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

...Synopsis...

A flattening ridge over the Northern High Plains will transition to
zonal flow midweek. A strong Pacific jet will drive multiple systems
along a persistent baroclinic zone from the southern Canadian
Rockies into the Dakotas. The strongest system will track through
Wednesday night into Thursday. There is a high chance that blizzard
conditions will develop Thursday morning over at least portions
of the FA, however the longevity/exact location of blizzard
conditions remains uncertain. Another wave passes through late
Friday, which will again bring snow/blowing snow to portions of
the region. On its backside, colder air will settle in for the
weekend, likely lasting through the end of the forecast period.

...Tuesday Winds...

A clipper tracking over the Southern Canadian Prairies will lug a
surge of warm air advection through the FA tonight into very early
Tuesday. As the low propagates to our north and east, its
attendant cold front will push through tonight into Tuesday
morning from northwest to southeast. Winds will pick up out of
the west/northwest behind the front. Soundings show the mixed
layer will be fairly shallow, but still deep enough to tap into
45+ knots at times to mix down, especially near the
International Border. If we manage to mix a little higher, gusts
would become more concerning, with soundings showing up to 55
knots available to mix down. HREF gives a 60% chance in the
Devils Lake Basin that surface gusts meet or exceed 58 mph
(which is high wind warning criteria). Latest guidance shows a
little deeper mixed layer then previous model runs, so future
shifts will need to monitor the need for any headline
adjustments to the current wind advisory. Luckily, most of the
snow should crust over ahead of the winds, reducing winter
related impacts, but pockets of drifting snow could lead to a
few slick spots.

...Blizzard Potential Thursday...

A hybrid system dragging Pacific moisture eastward, along with some
influence of Gulf moisture will track through the region Wednesday
night into Thursday. While there is still uncertainty, a clearer
picture is coming into focus. First, this system will bring
widespread, high winds due to a strong pressure gradient on it`s
backside. EFI has nearly the entire FA from the Red River Valley
west in values of 0.9 or greater (a guide for warning level
winds), with a shift of tails. Winds at 925 mb are shown to be
in the 60 to 75 knot range, depending on which model you use
from the 12z to 21z Thursday timeframe in the central/northern
Red River Valley. Winds of this magnitude have the potential to
bring significant visibility reductions during ANY periods of
falling snow. The second piece of the puzzle is the snow
forecast. A majority of ensembles keep the heaviest snow just
north of or near the Canadian Border, with our FA receiving up
to an inch. Meanwhile, other ensemble members show higher
snowfall totals (2-4 inches) falling along and north of Highway
2 or so. The differences in snowfall totals is tied to the track
of the low, as some members are further south then others.

While a more northerly track would result in less snow, it would
bring higher winds, and while a further south track would bring more
snow to blow around, winds would be ever so slightly lower. Both
scenarios still bring a period of high winds in conjunction with
falling snow over a large swath of the FA during the Thursday
morning commute. Therefore, the difference in real world
impacts of which track it takes will likely be low. While there
is a high chance for blizzard conditions somewhere within the FA
Thursday morning, the exact area and duration remains more
uncertain. For example, if slightly more snow falls (2+ inches),
blizzard conditions will likely be maintained longer into the
afternoon as winds do not look to decrease all that rapidly. If
snow falls further south then forecast, blizzard conditions will
become more widespread then currently forecast. Therefore,
while uncertainty still exists, we do know that for at least
portions of our FA that this system will bring high impacts
Wednesday night into Thursday. Please continue to monitor the
forecast in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR conditions should prevail in eastern ND through the TAF
period. There is still a lingering area of MVFR stratus in
northwest MN near KTVF and KBJI that should push east/northeast
as drier air moves into the region with the shifting pattern.
VFR would then be favored in northwest MN as well.

Strong low pressure building to the west will result in
increasing gradient this evening and overnight with southerly
winds increasing through the overnight and morning period
Tuesday. A strong cold front moves through the day Tuesday west
to east, and winds shift to the west and increase further
behind this front(gusts 35-40kt). A strong LLJ (50-65kt)
develops into the region as well and there are strong indications
that both low level directional and speed shear will develop as
this moves into the region later tonight and Tuesday.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ008-016-027-
     029-030-038-039-049-052-053.
     Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-054.
MN...Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 6 PM CST Tuesday for MNZ001>009-
     013>017-022>024-027>029.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...DJR