727
FXUS63 KFGF 041245
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
645 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The clipper train is going strong will remain the focus for
  forecasts into next week regarding any impacts. Impacts will
  be sub advisory thru the weekend, but potential stronger
  system mid next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 641 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Watching composite radar imagery and its indicating the
southernn edge of some light snow considerably farther south
than anticipated. Granted its not much....but still some light
snow perhaps down toward Rugby area so will watch this for any
pop updates. But main message remains the same with Canadian
radars showing heavier snow north of Dauphin to north of
Winnipeg moving southeast.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 335 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

...Synopsis...

The clipper train will be going strong into next week. The
coldest airmass will slip east and northeast today with weak low
pressure and 500 mb short wave dropping quickly southeast toward
Winnipeg then toward Kenora this evening. An area of light snow
with this with in general 1-2 inches...with higher end amounts
in NW Ontario side of the Lake of the Woods. Brief light snow or
flurries for a time this morning or early afternoon into the
north RRV to TRF to Bemidji area on the southwest side of main
light snow.

Today will see warmer air try to advance east with winds south-
southwest. Feel NBM temps too warm and nudged down a little as
HRRR and conshort cooler with highs in GF remaining under 20 vs
low 20s on NBM. Period of gusty winds from the SSW parts of
eastern ND into far NW MN ahead of system mid morning thru early
afternoon. Gusts 30-35 mph or so. These gusts should not be
enough to loft the snow pack in SE ND...but some drifting is
possible. Not enough snow to blow or drift around in northeast
ND.

Fast on its heels is another fast moving clipper this time from
central Alberta to southern Saskatchewan then east-southeast
thru southern ND into central MN tonight-Friday. Weak low with
this and even a weaker 500 mb short wave. Amounts look to be
half inch or less focused in SE ND.

Behind this wave high pressure and a surge of cold air moves
back in on Saturday with highs in the single digits and lows
teens below zero. Winds lighter though with this cold shot as
compared to Tues night.

Next week uncertainity in track and strength of systems
increases greatly. One fast moving weaker wave Monday. But
stronger one which has shown up in prior models for mid week
remains. Though track looks to be farther south, but how far
south depends greatly on location of baroclinic zone and
placement of cold high to our north. Overall trends though in
the past 1-2 days is a bit more south track more affecting parts
of ND/MN. Operational GFS and ECMWF have low track Regina-
Bismarck-Mankato MN with strip of potential more than 3 inch
snowfall near and just north of it. 00z ensembles and NBM
indicate a bit northern track with higher chances of more than 3
inch snowfall (20-30 pct) more near a Bottineau to Grand Forks
to Park Rapids zone. This would be Tues afternoon-night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 641 AM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

For the most part VFR ceilings today, though in areas closer to
the Canadian border lower ceilings or vsbys will occur. Gusty
SSW wind 20-25 kts today...then turning west-northwest this
evening. Models indicate consistently an area of lower end MVFR
cigs (maybe IFR) spreading in tonight.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
DISCUSSION...Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle