947
FXUS63 KFGF 021855
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
155 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record breaking warmth through Saturday.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Widespread rain
  is forecasted Saturday night through Sunday across portions
  of eastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

...Synopsis...

Meandering surface trough is washing out over Lakes Country this
afternoon, bringing with it a southerly to westerly wind shift.
Clear skies have lead to another warm day, with widespread low
to mid 80s across the region early this afternoon.

Looking upstream, a large trough over the Pacific Coast will be the
catalyst for more active and unsettled weather as it propagates
eastward over the weekend. An area of low pressure will form in
the lee of the Rockies Friday night into Saturday, tracking
from the Nebraska Panhandle northeastward to the Northern Red
River Valley by midday Sunday. This system will initially bring
thunderstorms and widespread rainfall, with much cooler
temperatures and windy conditions on the backside. These cooler
temperatures will introduce frost/freeze concerns Monday through
Wednesday mornings. Wednesday morning in particular looks to be
the coldest as the core of surface high pressure passes through
the FA. The probabilities Wednesday morning for temperatures of
32 degrees or colder is 70% area wide.

...Weekend Thunderstorms and Rainfall...

A strong low level jet of 50+ knots and associated warm air
advection will bring increasing potential for thunderstorms starting
Friday night. The first area of thunderstorm development looks to be
along the International Border on the nose of the WWA/LLJ Friday
night. While small hail and lightning are possible, severe weather
is not anticipated. Attention then shifts to Saturday afternoon and
evening. The advancing cold front from the west will provide
sufficient forcing for thunderstorms to develop. Instability of up
to 2000 J/kg, along with more then adequate 0-6 Km shear of 40+
knots will set the stage for thunderstorm development. The
window of time for storms to become severe seems to be limited
to a few hours in the late afternoon/early evening. Therefore,
the SPC has placed much of the forecast area under a level 1 of
5 marginal risk. The highest shear and instability seem to co-
locate themselves in northwestern MN, where a locally bit higher
risk of severe weather appears to exist.

A large shield of rain will develop on the cold side of the low,
driven by strong synoptic forcing. This deformation band will slowly
push northeastward, waning Sunday afternoon. Recent model guidance
has trended stronger and further west with the track of the surface
low, resulting in a swath of heavy rainfall on the order of 1 to 2
inches across the Devils Lake Basin into the far northern Red River
Valley. Rainfall totals taper off to the south and east.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025

VFR throughout the TAF period. Winds will remain light today,
shifting from the south to a more westerly direction at
terminals from west to east. Winds become calm and variable
overnight, before increasing out of the south up to 12 knots by
late Friday morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rafferty
AVIATION...Rafferty