895
FXUS63 KFGF 081752
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1152 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow today could bring travel impacts to portions of
  northwest Minnesota and the northern Red River Valley. The
  probability for 1 inch or greater of snow is about 60 percent.

- A stronger storm system arrives on Tuesday, bringing a wide
  range of winter impacts from accumulating snow and mixed
  precipitation to high winds. There is a 50 percent chance for
  warning level impacts and an 80 percent chance for at least
  advisory level impacts.

- Much colder temperatures will arrive late week, with a 70
  percent chance that wind chills drop to -30F or colder.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Starting to get some light snow moving into our northwestern
counties, and Rolla AWOS has gone down to 1/2 mile. CAMs and
radar have been trending a bit slower with the progression of
the snow band, so adjusted POPs accordingly. At this point,
still think it will be mostly trace to 2 inches, although a few
spots could get as high as 3 inches with some decent snow rates
reducing visibility near the international border at times.

UPDATE
Issued at 953 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The round of snow with the next clipper coming down out of
Canada has started to enter north central ND, and will continue
to move southeast through the rest of the morning and into the
early afternoon. Tweaked POPs a bit to reflect current timing of
radar and CAMs. At this point most of the snow amounts seem to
be dusting to 2 inches, but will have to watch for heavier snow
fall rates moving in and any isolated spots over 3 inches.
Stronger system tomorrow will be more impactful, so for now plan
to handle today`s system with graphic casts and see how things
develop.

UPDATE
Issued at 715 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The forecast remains on track this morning with light snow being
observed across many areas. Most of this is forming within a low
stratus deck ahead of today`s system. Precipitation chances
increase from west to east this morning into midday, with the
best chances for accumulating snow being generally north of
Highway 200 today.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 446 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

...Synopsis...

Active winter weather prevails through the next several days as a
thermal gradient remains stretched from northwest to southeast
across the Northern Plains. Warm air advection will override cold
surface air today, bringing a chance for snow into the northern Red
River Valley and northwest Minnesota. Best chances for snow start
around midday along the International Border, then expand further
south and east into the Red River Valley and northwest Minnesota.
Accumulations are expected to be generally light, with a 60 percent
chance for 1 inch of snow and a 15 percent chance for 2 or more
inches. After this system moves east of the area tonight, another,
much stronger system approaches the region by Tuesday morning. This
system is expected to bring at least minor winter impacts to the
area through Wednesday morning. A much colder air mass follows as we
head into Thursday and Friday, with dangerously cold wind chills
possible Friday morning.

...Light Snow Today...

A fast moving shortwave will interact with warm air advection today,
with light snow expected across parts of the area starting around
midday. The probability for 1 inch of snow is about 60 percent
currently, but has shifted slightly southward of earlier
projections. Best chances are currently along a line from northern
Towner County, southeast through southern Beltrami County.
Probability drops significantly at the 2 inch mark, with only a 15
percent chance for greater than 2 inches.

...Winter Impacts Tuesday into early Wednesday...

A much stronger system brings another chance for snow into the area
on Tuesday. A sharp baroclinic zone drifts northward, bringing
moisture into eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota ahead of
a strong clipper. The latest guidance still shows the potential for
a wintry mix or even rain for parts of southeast North Dakota, where
temps climb into the low to mid 30s on Tuesday. Further north,
surface temps and 850mb temps will be colder; however, there is
still some uncertainty regarding the rain/snow line. At this time,
anything north and east of a line from Devils Lake to Park Rapids
should see mostly snow from this system, which could be heavy at
times, with potential snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour. Ensemble
probs show a 60 percent chance for 4 inches or more snow across
northeast North Dakota, the central Red River Valley, and west
central Minnesota. WSSI-P sustains at least a 30 percent chance for
moderate impacts on Tuesday, with a near 100 percent probability for
minor impacts. These will likely be a combination of falling snow
and gusty north to northwest winds that arrive as the clipper moves
eastward into the Upper Midwest. Strong thermal and pressure
gradients are expected, which will facilitate strong cold air
advection Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph
are possible through late Tuesday evening. With this in mind, the
chance for blowing snow and reduced visibility becomes of great
concern during the afternoon and evening. Additionally, areas that
see rain and/or freezing rain could see travel conditions
deteriorate rapidly during the evening as temperatures fall sharply
following the cold front. Freezing rain during the afternoon could
also lead to impacts, primarily from Benson County southeastward to
Richland County.

...Dangerously Cold Wind Chills Possible Late This Week...

A reinforcing surge of cold air pours into the region heading into
Thursday and Friday, with 850mb temps ranging from -30C to -20C.
Overnight lows could fall well into the teens below zero, especially
where the snow pack is heaviest. This, combined with north to
northwest winds, could bring wind chill values down into the range
of -40F to -30F each morning Friday through Sunday. For most areas,
this is likely to be the coldest air of the season thus far.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1152 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

A bit of light snow or flurries reducing vis down to 2 miles at
a few spots. Ceilings are mostly MVFR but a few have broken up
to VFR or gone down to IFR. Some vis down to 1 mile or even
lower at times is not out of the question, with IFR conditions
for a while this afternoon and evening. After a bit of a break
back to MVFR/VFR overnight as this first round of snow, visibility
and ceilings will go down again towards the end of the period as
the next round of precipitation arrives. That system will have
the potential for FZRA as well as snow particularly at KDVL and
KFAR, so have a mention going at those sites. Winds will be
shifting around from the southeast to the west, then back to the
southeast before going north with the cold front coming down.
Speeds look like they will stay mostly in the 10 to 15 with
gusts up to 20 kts during the TAF period, but will be ramping
up quickly afterwards when they shift northwest for Tuesday
afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday morning through late Tuesday
     night for MNZ001>005-007>009-013>017-022>024-027-028-
     030>032.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch/JR
DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...JR