659
FXUS65 KFGZ 272304
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
404 PM MST Thu Nov 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and seasonably warm weather will persist through
Saturday. By Sunday, expect increasing winds and noticeably colder
temperatures, with chances for rain and snow showers from Sunday
night into early Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Fair weather and unseasonably warm temperatures are
expected to continue through Saturday. On Sunday, a 500 mb
shortwave trough will move down the eastern side of an amplifying
east Pacific ridge, crossing northern Arizona from late Sunday
through Monday morning bringing rain and high elevation snow
showers. This isn`t a particularly cold or wet system, with snow
levels starting out around 7500 feet before gradually decreasing
to around 6500 feet. Snow accumulations will likely be light, with
values an inch or less. The coldest model solutions indicate snow
accumulations in the 2-3 inch range over the higher terrain of
eastern Arizona, in the Chuskas and population centers near the
White Mountains. Otherwise, confidence remains high in a
noticeable cool down, with increased winds on Sunday.

Only minor winter weather impacts are expected, but travelers
should be aware and exercise caution if traveling along northern
Arizona`s high elevation roadways Sunday night and Monday
morning.

A return of dry weather is likely on Tuesday, but longer range
model data indicates a second low pressure system will impact
northern Arizona again during the second half of the week.
Significant model spread exists regarding the track and strength
of this second system. Confidence is high that the second half of
the week will see below normal temperatures associated with this
unsettle pattern, but how this will play out in terms of the
potential for rain and snow is hard to say. The bulk of the model
solutions indicate little to no rain or snow. The wettest model
solutions show liquid precipitation amounts up to 0.75 inches, and
accumulating snow in the 2-3 inch range. So, at this point it
looks to be another low impact system.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 28/00Z through Saturday 29/00Z...VFR conditions.
Winds light and VRB overnight, becoming W/SW 5-10 kts after 19Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 29/00Z through Monday 01/00Z...VFR conditions.
Winds light and VRB on Saturday, becoming S/SW 10-15 kts on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Daytime highs will land 2-10
degrees above normal each afternoon, along with minimum RH values
generally between 20-40%. Light and variable winds forecast for
today outside of breezy NE winds downwind of terrain early this
morning. West-southwest winds 5-15 mph expected on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Temperatures will gradually cool each day,
with chances for rain/high elevation snow Sunday night
through Monday morning. Otherwise, dry conditions will persist. Look
for light and variable winds Saturday, southwest through northwest
winds 5-15 mph Sunday, and northerly winds 5-15 mph on Monday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff