848
FXUS65 KFGZ 090508
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1008 PM MST Sat Nov 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather will continue through the rest of
the weekend and much of next week. A more unsettled pattern with
chances for precipitation may return by next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A high amplitude ridge will gradually meander eastward
over the next several days, likely peaking over our area Monday and
Tuesday. This ridge will send daytime temperatures to 5-10, possibly
even 15 degrees above normal for a few days. Deeper valley locations
may not see as big of a response, due to inversions under the ridge.

Toward the end of the week, the pattern begins to break down as a
mean trough develops over the eastern Pacific. This trough will send
s/wvs into the west from time to time, the first instance possibly
being as early as this coming Friday. There is still quite a bit of
uncertainty with the trough position after next weekend and into
next week (outside our forecast period), but models seem to be be
converging on the Friday/Saturday system.

As of now, the s/wv moves into a fairly warm air mass and most
precipitation should be rain. Later Friday night and Saturday, snow
levels may descend to around 8000 feet, but still enough uncertainty
that we cannot bank on this. For now, start thinking about unsettled
and early winter-like weather for the end of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 09/06Z through Monday 10/06Z...VFR conditions
forecast through the period. Localized areas of HZ/FU possible due
to prescribed burns. Light and variable winds forecast through
the period, minus areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim where
N-NE winds 10-25kts are possible between 06Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK...Monday 10/06Z through Wednesday 12/06Z...VFR conditions
expected. Localized areas of HZ/FU possible due to prescribed
burns. Light and variable winds forecast through the period,
minus areas along and south of the Mogollon Rim where N-NE winds
5-15 kts are possible between 06Z-16Z on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Dry conditions with temperatures
at least 5-10 degrees above average. Winds N-NE 10 mph on Sunday and
then light and variable at 0-10 mph on Monday. Minimum afternoon RH
between 15-25% Sunday, 10-20% Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Dry conditions continue with daytime
temperatures 5-10 degrees above average. Winds light at 10 mph or
less and mainly terrain driven Tuesday, becoming SW at 5-15 mph on
Wednesday and S-SW at 10-15 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH 10-20% on
Tuesday and Wednesday, 15-25% Thursday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff