865
FXUS65 KFGZ 111727
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1027 AM MST Tue Nov 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild weather will continue through Thursday.
A storm system will then bring colder temperatures and a chance of
rain and high elevation snow for Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday...High pressure remains in
control through the middle of the week. Gradually cooling, but
still above normal temperatures and dry conditions look to
continue as a result, Winds through Wednesday look to remain
light, before increasing on Thursday from the southwest ahead of
an approaching storm system.

Friday onward...A strong trough looks to dig southward along the
West Coast on Friday, eventually becoming more of a closed-low over
Arizona by the weekend. Moisture advection looks to increase ahead
of the low, resulting in area-wide precipitation developing during
the second-half of Friday and into rest of the weekend. Latest
ensemble guidance looks to mainly signal towards Saturday being the
most likely day for the area to see precipitation, with wrap around
precipitation then setting in on Sunday.

With the falling heights, much colder temperatures look to set in
across the state. 700mb temperatures look to fall to near -3C to -5C
within the core of the low, which would drop snow levels down to
near 7000-8000 feet. Thus, some high-elevation snow looks probable,
especially over the later-half of the storm. However, guidance has
trended southward with the low, resulting in warmer air being in
place over northern Arizona and reducing the likelihood of
accumulating snow in the High Country. However, with temperatures
near freezing, any pockets of heavier snow could reduce the surface
temperature enough and over come the warmer ground temperatures for
some minor accumulation.

Unsettled conditions look to prevail into next week, as a secondary
trough looks to develop over the west once again. However, uncertainty
remains high with the second low given high model spread in the
low position.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 11/18Z through Wednesday 12/18Z...VFR
conditions, no precipitation expected but some local haze/smoke
from prescribed burns across the area. Winds light and variable at
10kts or less daytime, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/18Z through Friday 14/18Z...VFR conditions
expected, only thing of note in the near term is some local
haze/smoke from prescribed burns. However there is a slight chance
of showers possible after 06Z Friday as a Pacific storm system
begins to make its way in. Winds SW 5-15kts Wednesday, S 10-20kts
Thursday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Wednesday...Dry conditions with
temperatures 5-10 degrees above average. Increasing clouds tonight
through Wednesday. Winds light and variable or terrain driven today
at 10 mph or less, then S-SW 5-10 mph Wednesday. Minimum afternoon
RH 10-20%.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry with temperatures 5-10 degrees above
average Thursday. A storm system moves in Friday and Saturday with
much cooler temperatures. Precipitation chances also return Friday
and Saturday, with snow levels mostly above 8000 ft. Winds SW 10-20
mph on Thursday, SW-W 15-25 mph on Friday, then variable up to 10
mph on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff