Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
996 FXUS64 KFWD 072311 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 511 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to below normal temperatures will continue through Monday, with above normal temperatures expected the rest of next week. - The next strong cold front is expected to arrive later this week and will bring another round of much cooler temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of the afternoon through Monday night) Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 After another chilly, cloudy, and foggy morning, conditions will continue to slowly improve this afternoon as the drier airmass finally arrives from the north. Breezy north winds with gusts near 20-25 mph are possible through the afternoon. While recent radar imagery show some light reflectivity returns from the mid- level clouds over portions of North TX, most of it is not reaching the ground. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 30s are beginning to filter in as well, keeping the lower levels fairly dry. Still we can`t rule out a little bit of drizzle before all the clouds clear out this afternoon. The combination of clouds and winds will keep today`s highs mainly in the low to mid 50s across North TX and upper 50s/lower 60s in Central TX. Surface winds will begin to subside tonight as a surface high pressure moves towards our area. Low temperatures will drop to the upper 20s to mid 30s with wind chill generally in the 20s. Make sure to bundle up for the morning commute Monday morning. Another seasonably cooler day is in store for us on Monday with highs in the 50s to low 60s but with plenty of sunshine and light winds. The surface high pressure will shift to the east Monday night with the return of the south winds. Overnight lows will stay in the 30s but only a few locations will drop below freezing by Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through next Saturday) Issued at 1230 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 The long-term forecast continues to highlight the warming trend Tuesday through Thursday followed by the next strong cold front by the end of the week into the weekend. Large scale troughing will dominate the eastern half of the CONUS most of the week but the surface ridge to our west will keep the colder airmass over the central/northern plains. A weak cold front may attempt to push south on Wednesday briefly shifting the winds to the north, but we won`t see much of a cooldown until the stronger front later in the week. Daytime highs Tuesday through Thursday will range from the 60s to low 70s and lows in the 30s/40s staying above freezing. For the late week and weekend period, extended guidance continues to trend towards a deeper trough over the eastern U.S with a stronger/expansive surface ridge building east of the Rockies. This will send a much colder airmass across the southern plains and the southeast U.S. by the end of the week into the weekend. We could be looking at widespread highs in the 40s to low 50s by next Saturday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 505 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025 Post-frontal stratus has vacated the TAF sites to the southeast following this morning`s cold frontal passage, with VFR and mostly clear skies now prevailing. Northerly wind speeds will decline to less than 10 kts this evening and will remain light into tomorrow. A small percentage (10-20%) of recent high-res guidance is depicting some very patchy fog development within D10 overnight, but this low-probability scenario seems unlikely given drying forecast sounding profiles along with 2-4 degree surface dewpoint depressions, and therefore will not be addressed in the TAFs at this time. Light winds will return to southeasterly around/after 00z Monday evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 33 53 37 65 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 32 55 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 32 50 32 60 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 29 53 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 31 52 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 34 54 38 64 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 32 53 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 33 55 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 34 57 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 31 58 34 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Stalley