Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
893 FXUS64 KFWD 201919 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 119 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and storms will continue the rest of the afternoon and evening. The main threat will be heavy rain and flooding, particularly for areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy rain. Central Texas will have a low-end tornado threat. - Additional storm chances return late this weekend into early next week that could lead to additional flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of the Afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 119 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 An active afternoon and evening will persist over much of North Texas as additional showers and storms move across the region. For Central TX, more scattered activity will develop first ahead of a more organized cluster/broken line expected to arrive by 4-5pm. The main hazard for North Texas will continue to be the locally heavy rain resulting in flash flooding, especially over those locations that received heavy rain last night or this morning. Regarding the severe threat, we can`t rule out a strong storm with gusty winds, but the atmosphere looks like it is fairly worked over from this morning`s convection. For Central Texas, we`re still monitoring the low/conditional threat for tornadoes in addition to hail and damaging winds late this afternoon and evening. Some of the high-res models continue to highlight a good curvature in the low-level hodographs. If these storms remain surface based and are able to persist, they could pose a low tornado risk across Central Texas (especially the southern counties). The main activity should be east of our area around midnight, but a few showers and isolated storms may persist south of I-20 through early Friday morning. The strong mid/upper level trough responsible for this active weather will eject toward the southern High Plains tonight and tomorrow with a surface front/low spreading across the Southern Plains during the day. While we won`t see much of a cool down behind the boundary, the west winds should bring some of the drier air into our region. Rain chances should diminish as well. Daytime highs on Friday will stay in the 70s as clouds clear from west to east in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 119 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 /Weekend and Next Week/ The main story of the long-term forecast continues to be the next storm system expected to arrive on Sunday lingering into early next week. The good news is that the rain should tapper off before Thanksgiving Day and perhaps we will also enjoy some cooler weather during the mid-late week period. Saturday will feature mostly dry weather as high pressure settles behind the upper trough. Winds will be out of the north with mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 60s/70s for North Texas and 70s across Central Texas. The quiet weather will be short- lived as the next upper trough moves into the Desert Southwest on Sunday. Latest deterministic models and cluster analysis are showing better agreement with the upper trough steadily progressing from the Four Corners region into the southern Plains Sunday through Monday night. As expected, the timing and location of the heavy rain will still change from here to there but confidence is increasing that most locations will see showers and thunderstorms during this period. Additional average rainfall between 1 and 2.5 inches are possible with isolated higher amounts (10% chance) of up to 4 inches. This will bring additional flooding concerns over the region given the recent rain. Continue to check back for forecast updates, especially if traveling during the weekend and early week. Cooler and drier weather will follow toward the mid-late week with forecast highs staying in the upper 50s and 60s region wide. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025 Concerns...Thunderstorms through the evening and low ceilings tonight through Friday morning. Poor flying conditions will continue through much of the period due to the combination of additional rounds of showers and storms and low ceilings/vsby. For the rest of the afternoon through 01-02Z, expect on-and-off convection before the main cluster of storms moves east of the TAF sites after 03Z. Some of the high- res guidance develops another area of showers/storms after midnight across portions of Central TX which could impact KACT between 08-11Z early Friday morning. For the North Texas sites, expect MVFR/IFR ceilings to develop overnight and continue through around 16-17Z Friday before drier air arrives from the west behind a weak cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 76 52 69 / 100 20 0 0 Waco 63 77 52 71 / 90 40 10 10 Paris 62 75 50 69 / 100 20 0 0 Denton 57 75 46 68 / 90 10 0 0 McKinney 60 75 49 68 / 100 20 0 0 Dallas 62 76 53 70 / 100 20 0 0 Terrell 62 77 50 70 / 100 30 10 0 Corsicana 65 78 54 73 / 90 40 10 10 Temple 62 78 52 73 / 90 40 10 10 Mineral Wells 55 77 46 73 / 80 10 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through late tonight for TXZ102>105-117>121-130>134- 141>146-156>159. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sanchez LONG TERM....Sanchez AVIATION...Sanchez