Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
756 FXUS64 KFWD 092230 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 530 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - An elevated grass fire threat will be present for areas near and west of I-35 on Sunday. - Warm and rain-free weather will continue into next week with temperatures 5 to 15 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 131 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025/ /Today through Friday Afternoon/ The rest of this week will remain warm and dry as upper-level ridging retains dominion over North and Central Texas` weather pattern. A shortwave disturbance rounding the eastern periphery of the ridge into the Deep South is currently shunting a backdoor front south and westward towards East Texas, mainly characterized by lower dewpoints and east-northeast winds. This front will quietly slide further into our area the rest of the day. With only light winds and no real temperature drop behind the boundary, expect afternoon highs to peak in the mid 80s to low 90s under mostly sunny skies. The front will eventually stall across North and Central Texas tomorrow before becoming more diffuse over the weekend. Tomorrow afternoon will pretty much be a wash, rinse, and repeat of today as high temperatures once again peak in the mid 80s and low 90s. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 131 PM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025/ /Thursday Friday Onward/ While upper-level ridging keeps things warm and dry this weekend, a lee-side surface low will form to our northwest, which will tighten the surface pressure gradient and increase wind speeds. With lower humidity both Saturday and Sunday afternoons, increasingly dried fuels, and continued abnormally warm temperatures, these increased wind speeds will allow for an increased concern for fire weather for areas mainly near and west of I-35. This is particularly true for Sunday afternoon when wind speeds reach 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20-25 mph. A digging shortwave well to our northwest will eject from the main trough located over the western CONUS early in the week, sending a cold front south. Unfortunately, this front will likely stall before it makes it to our area, with any accompanying rain chances remaining to our north. Otherwise ridging will remain planted across the Southern Plains throughout next week, keeping the warm and dry conditions in place. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ A surface ridge stretching from the Ohio Valley to Northeast Texas will keep light east winds going through Friday. Meanwhile, a ridge aloft will remain anchored over Texas, maintaining tranquil aviation weather across the region. A thin layer of smoke from the western wildfires may affect slant range visibility at times, but conditions will remain VFR area-wide. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 64 87 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 62 88 60 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 57 83 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 58 86 58 88 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 58 85 59 88 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 64 88 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 58 86 58 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 62 88 61 89 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 61 88 58 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 60 90 58 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$