Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
264 FXUS64 KFWD 011140 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 540 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain will continue through Monday afternoon. The potential for freezing precipitation near the Red River remains low with no impacts expected. - Sub-freezing temperatures with wind chills in the 20s are expected on Tuesday morning. - Brief warming is expected mid-week before another cold front brings cooler air and scattered rain chances to the region late this upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 Light precipitation has begun to develop across portions of North Texas early this morning, aided by mid-level isentropic ascent ahead of a compact shortwave lifting through the southern Rockies. While radar trends indicate modestly organized lift, dry sub- cloud layers are likely limiting much of this activity to virga or light drizzle at the surface. Where precipitation does reach the ground, rain will be the predominant type thanks to an elevated warm nose and surface temperatures remaining mostly above freezing. With that said, would not be surprised if there are a few reports of sleet pellets mixed in with the rain. A few locations near the Red River may also briefly flirt with freezing temperatures toward sunrise, but forecast soundings continue to show a shallow or absent refreezing layer, supporting a rain/drizzle scenario with no meaningful ice accretion expected. As we progress through the morning hours, the axis of deeper moisture and stronger ascent will gradually shift eastward across Central and East Texas. Isentropic lift will persist through midday before waning in the wake of the departing shortwave. Precipitation coverage is expected to be rather limited with QPF totals under 0.10" in most locations. Even so, persistent low- level saturation beneath a gradually moistening mid-level profile may result in intermittent light rain or drizzle across much of the region through the early afternoon. Temperatures will remain well below normal today with cloud cover, shallow cold air advection, and limited mixing. Highs will again hover in the 40s north of I-20, while portions of Central Texas may see readings peak near 50 degrees by late afternoon. A weak surface boundary will reinforce northerly flow by late in the day, although little in the way of meaningful cold air advection is expected behind it. Winds will stay light to moderate from the north at 5 to 15 mph through the period. Clearing skies and the arrival of drier air Monday night will allow temperatures to fall efficiently, especially across our western and northern zones. Lows by daybreak Tuesday will dip into the mid 20s near the Red River and across the Big Country, with upper 20s to low 30s elsewhere. Wind chill values will be in the 20s areawide, reinforcing the need for appropriate cold weather precautions to start the day. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1258 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 After a cold start Tuesday morning, a gradual warming trend will ensue as the upper trough exits and surface winds veer back to the south. Temperatures will rebound into the 50s by Tuesday afternoon with further warming into the 60s by Wednesday afternoon. Our next weather-maker arrives late Wednesday into Thursday as a mid-level disturbance traverses the southern Rockies and pushes a cold front through the Plains. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to show some spread regarding frontal timing and post-frontal temperature trends. Nonetheless, increasing PoPs appear warranted beginning Wednesday night, particularly across Central and East Texas where deeper moisture return may overlap the enhanced large-scale ascent. A moderate rebound in temperatures is likely to occur next weekend, though this will be contingent on how quickly surface ridging departs and southwesterly flow resumes. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 536 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025 The light rain showers that impacted parts of North Texas earlier this morning have largely exited the region. A few weak returns continue to develop near the Red River, but no additional impacts are expected at the Metroplex terminals and VCSH has been removed accordingly. MVFR cigs have reached the southern fringes of the Metroplex but have shown a very slow northward progression over the past several hours. That said, with D10s position on the edge of the lower deck, a TEMPO for BKN028 has been included through 14Z. A transition to more widespread MVFR conditions is expected around 15-16Z, with prevailing ceilings around 2-2.5 kft through the afternoon. A reinforcing cold front will shift winds to the north by 20Z, followed by gradual veering and modest drying aloft this evening. Ceilings will begin to lift and scatter after 01Z. At KACT, VCSH has been introduced beginning 14Z as lingering moisture and weak ascent support intermittent light rain through the afternoon. Ceilings will remain MVFR through the daytime period with improvement expected after 00Z Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 43 30 51 39 / 20 0 0 0 Waco 47 30 52 38 / 20 10 0 0 Paris 38 25 47 31 / 30 10 0 0 Denton 43 25 51 36 / 20 0 0 0 McKinney 42 26 50 36 / 20 10 0 0 Dallas 44 30 51 38 / 20 0 0 0 Terrell 43 28 50 35 / 20 10 0 0 Corsicana 46 33 52 39 / 30 10 0 0 Temple 49 31 55 38 / 20 10 0 0 Mineral Wells 48 27 57 38 / 10 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM....12 AVIATION...12