Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
450 FXUS64 KFWD 171937 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 137 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm daytime temperatures will continue through tomorrow. Record to near record highs are expected at both DFW and Waco this afternoon, then again tomorrow afternoon. - Thunderstorm chances return Wednesday and continue through early Friday. Heavy rain will create a threat for flooding during this period. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 137 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A broad, gradually flattening mid level ridge over the Southern Plains will foster continued dry and unseasonably warm conditions across North Texas through Tuesday. As has been the case the past two mornings, we should see another resurgence of low cloudiness into the southern and eastern portions of the forecast area early Tuesday. This cloud cover should steadily scatter out by mid to late morning as solar insolation and mechanical mixing ensue. This will yield another sunny and noticeably warm afternoon across the region. High temperatures will soar well into the 80s this afternoon and again Tuesday, with lower 90s common across many of the western counties due to the combined effects of downslope compressional warming and lower humidities. Some high temperature records at DFW, Waco, and probably elsewhere in the area will be threatened both this afternoon and again on Tuesday. Fortunately, with any luck, Tuesday`s readings will represent the high water mark for the remainder of the fall and winter (famous last words!) && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 137 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 A significant pattern change remains in the offing for North and Central Texas, beginning Wednesday and continuing into the weekend. Few changes are planned with this forecast package, as the timing of the system still suggests an onset of showers across the area Wednesday afternoon. Initially, the precipitation will be fairly scattered and light, driven basically by modest isentropic lift within a partially moistened environment. More pronounced upper level forcing for ascent, associated with the main region of vorticity advection approaching from New Mexico, will promote more widespread shower and thunderstorm development beginning late Wednesday night into Thursday. While the Euro and GEFS ensembles are dampening the Southwest upper level low and sending most of its associated strongest lift northwest of our area into Kansas by Friday, we`ll still receive enough deep layer forcing around here to facilitate multiple bands of shower and thunderstorm activity through early Friday morning. We`ll continue to depict the highest PoPs from Thursday afternoon through the early morning hours Friday. Moisture advection will really commence in earnest by daybreak Thursday, with precipitable water values (mainly north of I-20) ultimately topping out around 200-250% of normal by late Thursday. These PWs amounts represent the climatological maximum for November, auguring well for a widespread, healthy rain event. Good confidence still exists for widespread rain amounts of 1 to 3 inches through Friday morning. While the somewhat less amplified and faster progression of the upper level system might tend to limit higher end rain totals, the extraordinarily high PWs resident over the area engender serious respect. This being the case, still believe some localized totals of 3 to 5 inches are possible, with most of this more likely to occur between I-20 and the Red River after noon on Thursday. A localized flash flood threat definitely remains in the cards for the region through early Friday morning, and a watch may be necessitated as later model runs bring more granularity into the rainfall forecast. The potential for severe thunderstorm development still remains uncertain with this event, but can`t be ruled out. Some Euro and GEFS ensemble members suggest some decent CAPE values evolving over the area by Thursday, though the degree of surface based CAPE is unclear. If any short, intense bowing line segments are able to establish themselves on Thursday/Thursday night, a limited damaging wind threat could ensue. Again, more confidence in this aspect of the forecast should occur with later runs. The primary rain event with this initial system should wrap up in our eastern counties by Friday morning. We`ll see cooler conditions and a lull in precipitation for North Texas on Saturday. Another system arriving from the west will bring a renewed chance of showers by Sunday, continuing into Monday. Rainfall amounts with this next system will be much lower on the whole, versus those expected in the Wednesday-Friday timeframe. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 137 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 Very few changes to the ongoing daily trends with this pattern. VFR conditions at all TAF sites through at least 09z tonight, but after that point, we should see another stratus shield push northward out of Central Texas, eventually reaching D10 by around 10z or thereabouts. Expect at least low MVFR ceilings to affect Waco starting at 09z, and most of the D10 terminals, including DFW, by 10z. Likely to see LIFR ceilings at DAL for a period of time between 10z and 13z, and a good chance of these conditions at DFW as well. As has been the case the past two mornings, these low clouds should mix out to VFR conditions by mid morning as solar insolation and brisk southerly breezes ensue. A fairly tight pressure gradient across the Southern Plains states, facilitated by a lee trough over eastern New Mexico, will foster continued south winds at speeds of 10 to 15 knots through Tuesday, gusting at times in excess of 20 knots this afternoon and again late Tuesday morning and afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 68 86 66 82 / 10 0 0 30 Waco 70 83 66 82 / 10 10 0 30 Paris 68 85 64 83 / 20 0 0 30 Denton 63 86 61 81 / 10 0 0 40 McKinney 68 86 63 82 / 10 0 0 30 Dallas 69 87 66 83 / 10 0 0 30 Terrell 68 85 64 83 / 10 10 0 30 Corsicana 71 85 67 83 / 10 10 0 30 Temple 68 83 64 83 / 10 10 10 40 Mineral Wells 62 90 61 85 / 0 0 10 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bradshaw LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Bradshaw