Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
198 FXUS64 KFWD 281932 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 132 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will return this evening and linger through early Sunday. A few strong storms with hail are also possible over Central Texas Saturday afternoon. - A strong cold front will move through North Central Texas late Saturday into early Sunday. In its wake, the coldest temperatures of the season will arrive and persist through Tuesday. Wind chills on Sunday morning will drop into the mid teens to mid 20s. - Some light rain will return Monday into Monday night. The potential for any light sleet or freezing rain is now minimal over the northern counties Monday morning. No impacts are expected, though a brief window may exist near the Red River, when a low probability of precipitation coincides with temperatures in the lower 30s. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Saturday) Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 The temperatures being experienced across North and Central Texas today through Saturday will be the mildest we see for the next several days. Our strong cold front and significant cool off is still on track to commence late tomorrow afternoon. A fast, low-amplitude mid-level disturbance will exit the Central Rockies later tonight. Already, forcing for ascent well ahead of this feature is resulting in the development of a few high based showers over western North Texas. The lowest several thousand feet of the atmosphere, however, are quite dry, and this is inhibiting any rain from reaching the surface. By late afternoon, and continuing through the overnight hours, coverage and intensity of this precipitation will pick up, and we`ll start to see light rain accumulations across most of the area after midnight. Some meager (~400-500 Jkg-1) amounts of elevated CAPE will likely exist in the 06z-12z time period, and it`s not out of the question some isolated elevated thunderstorms may also form after midnight. Any strong or certainly marginally severe storms would be quite a stretch, however, given the limited instability, and thus am not concerned about any hazards other than lightning overnight tonight. The shield of precipitation should shift into eastern North Texas during the morning hours Saturday, as the upper level disturbance pushes into the lower Mississippi Valley. Subsidence on the backside of the disturbance will foster some breaks in the cloud cover by afternoon, allowing the sun to peek through at times. A fair amount of lingering moisture will exist over the region, however, and this may yield some continued sprinkles along and east of I-35 during the afternoon. The long advertised cold front will sweep southward across the Red River by early afternoon Saturday, driving through the Metroplex toward sunset, and clearing the entire forecast area late Saturday evening. Strong gusty north winds behind the front will usher in much colder air, with temperatures sliding out of the 60s and through the 50s across the northern counties by late afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Thursday) Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 The aforementioned cold front will plunge southward through the forecast area during the evening hours, with a modified polar airmass surging rapidly into the region in its wake. With gusty north winds, wind chill values will drop through the 30s into the 20s areawide through the overnight hours. Lows in the northernmost counties will dip into the upper 20s by daybreak Sunday, with 30s elsewhere. Short range model solutions suggest enough lift may accompany this front to facilitate a narrow axis of convection along and just ahead of this boundary as it pushes through the I-20 corridor around sunset Saturday. The NBM and associated ensembles advertise some fairly healthy PoPS across our east central and southeast counties by Saturday evening. Not entirely sold on this coverage, but chose to follow it for this package. Assuming this activity materializes, we`ll see a combination of showers and thunderstorms across this region. Enough deep layer CAPE appears to exist to create a potential for some marginally severe thunderstorms over our southeast zones by early evening. Hail would be the primary threat if this activity does develop. With the polar airmass in place, Sunday will be quite chilly by late November standards. Highs regionwide in the 40s will represent values that are as much as 15-20 degrees below normal. Sunny skies will materialize mainly north of I-20, though clouds may hang tough most of the day across the Central Texas zones. A persistent north wind will add an edge for those outside. A cloudy, cold day will usher in the first day of December. Highs on Monday will once again struggle to reach the 40s by afternoon. Another trough will amplify over the Western U.S. late Sunday night, and shoot eastward through the Plains states by Monday. The forcing for ascent associated with this feature will interact with the shallow layer of moisture overriding the cold airmass near the surface, promoting another round of light rain across much of the area Monday afternoon and evening. Coverage will not be overly widespread or heavy, and confidence is high that this precipitation will exit the region prior to the time when surface temperatures dip toward the freezing mark. At this time, no winter impacts are expected across North Texas with this system. The rest of the week will feature slowly moderating temperatures, though daytime values will remain below normal for early December all the way through Thursday. Another storm system will approach the region from the southwest toward the end of the week, resulting in a renewed chance of rain Thursday, mainly across our Central Texas counties. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 131 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025 A compact upper-level disturbance racing out of the Central Rockies, coupled with increased mid level moisture will lead to broken/overcast VFR conditions across the area this afternoon and this evening. Ceilings will gradually lower through 06Z, and patchy virga moving in from the west will be supplanted by scattered to numerous showers overnight. Some meager amounts of mid level instability will exist in the 06Z-12Z time period, and it`s not out of the question some elevated thunderstorms may also develop in the D10 area after 06z. Was not confident enough in the development of this convection to retain TSRA in the 18Z TAFs, but later forecasts may need to carry thunder if the lapse rates, instability, and forcing imply a greater likelihood. The precipitation mass should shift largely east of the terminals in the 12-15Z period as the upper level system exits our region, though a few lingering sprinkles may exist all day Saturday. MVFR ceilings should become widespread across D10 and in the Waco areas after 06Z, persisting until at least 15Z Saturday. The system approaching from the Rockies will foster a moderately tight pressure gradient over our region today through Saturday morning, with south winds persisting at speeds of 12-16 knots, gusting in excess of 22 knots at times. The other feature of significance in the extended portion of the KDFW forecast will be the arrival of the strong cold front out of Oklahoma. Current thinking is that this boundary will transit D10 in the 21Z-23Z period, with a wind shift at DFW of around 22Z. Winds behind this boundary will be strong and gusty from the north at speeds of 15-25 knots. Short range model solutions suggest enough lift may accompany this front to trigger a few showers or even TSRA as it transits D10 and areas to the south. Omitted reference to thunder in this extended period, but this will need to be monitored for inclusion in later forecasts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 51 69 32 45 / 80 60 20 0 Waco 53 73 36 46 / 70 60 30 0 Paris 45 61 29 44 / 80 80 30 0 Denton 48 69 27 44 / 70 50 10 0 McKinney 48 66 30 45 / 80 70 20 0 Dallas 50 70 33 45 / 80 60 20 0 Terrell 48 67 32 45 / 80 70 40 0 Corsicana 53 70 36 47 / 70 70 50 0 Temple 55 74 36 47 / 60 50 30 0 Mineral Wells 50 75 29 48 / 70 30 10 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bonnette LONG TERM....Bradshaw AVIATION...Bradshaw