Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
425 FXUS64 KFWD 160003 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 603 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Unseasonably warm temperatures will return to the region for the rest of the workweek with some low rain chances (10-20%) on Wednesday across the southeast. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 Much of North and Central Texas began the day with the coldest temperatures of the season so far thanks to clear skies and light winds. The cool weather will continue through the rest of the day, especially as clouds continue to cover parts of the region. The mid-level clouds mark the influx of moisture to the region in response to the departing low across the Midwest. Areas where clouds are slow to erode will remain the coolest. Overall, expect highs to range from the upper 40s to lower 50s with south winds near 10 mph. The south winds and increasing cloud cover will prevent tonight`s temperatures from reaching the freezing point across our region. A few spots near Paris may get close to 32 degrees, however, upper 30s to lower 40s will dominate tonight`s low temperature readings. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1202 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 With warm air advection in full swing tomorrow, temperatures will climb into the upper 50s to upper 60s across North and Central Texas. A weak shortwave will be moving overhead tomorrow, however, low-level moisture will be lacking for any appreciable rain chances. A few sprinkles may be squeezed out northeast of the DFW Metroplex Tuesday afternoon, however, rain amounts will likely be too low to measure. As the shortwave departs the region, a weak front will attempt to enter our northwest. With minimal cold air advection, the front will struggle to advance to the southeast into North Texas. A powerful shortwave will be moving across the Northern Plains on Thursday, sending a cold front southward towards our region. The current expectation is for the front to move across North and Central Texas during the day on Thursday. The incoming airmass is not expected to be as cold as this weekened`s airmass, however, it will lead to a cool down with highs in the 50s to mid 60s on Friday. The cool down will be short-lived as the front quickly lifts north as a warm front and temperatures climb into the 70s and lower 80s on Saturday. Confidence in the temperature forecast drops on Sunday as some guidance wants to push another front across our region, while other guidance keeps the warm regime in place. This will continue to be assessed over the next several days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 600 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025 VFR conditions will continue at airports tonight into tomorrow. Broken cirrus clouds are expected tonight, with scattered low clouds developing tomorrow as low level moisture increases. MVFR cigs are possible at KACT by late Tuesday afternoon and in parts of D10 by Tuesday evening, but due to uncertainty will leave TAFs at VFR for now. South winds around 5-10 knots tonight will increase to around 15 knots on Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 40 61 49 66 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 41 61 53 67 / 0 0 10 10 Paris 34 57 45 62 / 0 10 10 10 Denton 37 62 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 37 60 46 65 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 41 61 50 67 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 37 60 49 66 / 0 10 10 10 Corsicana 40 62 54 68 / 0 0 10 10 Temple 39 62 51 68 / 0 0 10 10 Mineral Wells 40 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...Shamburger