236
FXUS64 KFWD 312331
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday Night/

Late afternoon convection has developed just west of the forecast
area from Abilene to San Saba on the buoyant side of a CAPE
gradient. This residual theta-e boundary is oriented from NW to
SE, and convection may attempt to follow this feature
southeastward with time, perhaps grazing our far southwestern
zones this evening. The greatest severe risk will remain farther
to the west outside of the forecast area within the axis of higher
instability, but a brief hail/wind threat could accompany any
cells that drift farther eastward, likely in the form of left-
splitting supercells. This activity is largely expected to wane
with loss of heating, although we`ll need to keep an eye on the
anvil regions of these cells in case isolated new development can
occur in Central Texas beneath their cirrus shields.

Later tonight, our attention turns to the northwest where ongoing
convection in eastern NM and the TX Panhandle is expected to
congeal into a complex. Corfidi vectors favor an ESE progression
of MCS activity, but weak low-level inflow in the 925-850 mb
layer of just 10-20 kts should preclude this activity from
remaining very robust. This complex, or perhaps an associated
MCV, should encroach on the northwestern fringes of the forecast
area during the predawn hours, with convection waning upon
entering North TX. However, a remnant MCV and/or outflow boundary
from this complex could serve as a focus for isolated convective
redevelopment tomorrow afternoon. We`ll maintain a broad swath of
20% storm chances through peak heating tomorrow to account for
this possibility. These cells would not have a very favorable
environment to work with, and would probably struggle to become
strong or severe. Another complex is likely to traverse portions
of the Central and Southern Plains Saturday night into Sunday, but
its location and track is very uncertain at this stage.

Aside from convective concerns, there is a chance for patchy fog
to develop tonight, and this would be most likely across portions
of East/Northeast TX. Otherwise, expect a return to seasonable
heat and humidity over the weekend with highs in the upper 80s and
lower 90s while dewpoints hold in the lower 70s. This will yield
heat index values in the 95-100 degree range for most areas
Saturday afternoon.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 244 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024/
/Sunday Through Next Week/

An unsettled pattern will continue through much of the forecast
period, with zonal flow remaining in place through the end of the
weekend through much of next week. On and off chances for showers
and thunderstorms will continue through the middle of next week.
Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible at times as well
as convective complexes push into portions of North and Central
Texas from the west and north. The threats with these additional
rounds of activity will include damaging winds, large hail, and
the continued potential for flash flooding. The tornado threat
will be low but not zero. This will mostly hinge on the evolution
of storms, which will more likely than not move through in the
form of clusters. This would increase our potential for damaging
winds, and elevated thunderstorms will of course have the
potential for severe hail. Any remnant outflow boundaries or
surface fronts will serve to increase the tornado potential
locally should storms become surface based, but the mass majority
of storms should remain elevated as strengthening cold pools
dominate the region. That being said, overall confidence in any of
this activity remains quite low as model guidance continues to
offer a wide range of solutions. The only thing that is certain is
this active pattern that we are currently in doesn`t seem to be
going anywhere any time soon. As has been the case for the last
several days, specific timing, coverage, and hazards will be hard
to narrow down and may continue to heavily rely on real-time
observations and radar/satellite interpretation. Continue to check
for updates as the forecast is sure to evolve as we move forward.

The other main talking point with the long term forecast involves
the heat that will begin to make its return across the region
through the end of next week. Afternoon highs in the 90s with
dewpoints in the 70s will allow heat indices to approach 105
degrees. Heat illness will become an increasing concern for those
working outside, especially for our vulnerable populations.

Reeves

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

VFR conditions presently prevail at the TAF sites, with convection
ongoing well to the southwest of the airports. This convection
over western Central Texas is not expected to directly impact any
of the terminals, and will dissipate in a few hours. Overnight, a
storm complex originating in the TX Panhandle will move
southeastward, possibly entering North Texas prior to sunrise.
There is a very small chance (10%) that this convection could
survive into western portions of D10, or at a minimum send an
outflow boundary towards the TAF sites resulting in a brief WNW
wind shift. Probabilities for this to occur are too low to
introduce any of these conditions into the TAFs, and trends will
be monitored over the next 6-12 hours in case their inclusion is
warranted. Otherwise, there is a brief window when MVFR cigs
could affect the TAF sites tomorrow morning, and this would likely
occur after sunrise through late morning before scattering to VFR
by midday. If a residual boundary or MCV exists from the morning
convective complex, it could serve as a focus for isolated
thunderstorm activity nearby later in the afternoon.

-Stalley

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    70  90  73  88  74 /   5  20  10  30  30
Waco                70  88  73  87  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
Paris               66  87  69  86  71 /   5  10  10  40  30
Denton              67  89  71  87  72 /   5  20  10  30  30
McKinney            67  88  71  87  72 /   5  20  10  30  30
Dallas              70  90  73  89  74 /   5  20  10  30  30
Terrell             68  88  71  87  73 /   5  20  10  30  20
Corsicana           71  90  73  89  75 /   5  20  10  30  20
Temple              70  88  73  89  75 /  20  30  10  20  10
Mineral Wells       67  90  72  88  72 /  10  20  20  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$