Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 200054 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
754 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE WILL LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS. 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWED
SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH IS EVIDENT
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WATER VAPOR ALSO INDICATES THAT THIS DRY
AIR IS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALF OF THE
CWA. THAT BEING SAID...ANY ADDITIONAL SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THROUGH
LATE TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND SOME PATCHY FOG ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 629 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

FOR THE 00Z TAFS...THE TIMING OF STRATUS OVER AREA TAF SITES
EARLY TOMORROW MORNING IS THE PRIMARY AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN.

AFTERNOON AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA FROM THE DFW AREA INDICATES QUITE
A BIT OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS DRY AIR
ALOFT SHOULD ENSURE THAT ANY ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS THAT APPROACH THE DFW AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WILL
DISSIPATE. NO AIRCRAFT SOUNDING DATA WAS AVAILABLE FOR THE WACO
AREA...HOWEVER SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATE MORE ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN GENERAL ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS...THEREFORE THE
ASSUMPTION IS THAT THE MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER THE DFW
AREA DOES NOT EXTEND SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AT THIS TIME. AS A
RESULT...LEFT VCSH IN AT THE WACO TAF THROUGH 01Z.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW STRATUS BUILDING
OVER THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. WENT AHEAD AND
ADJUSTED THE TIMING OF THE ONSET OF STRATUS OVER AREA TAF SITES
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE...HOWEVER DID
NOT MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FLIGHT CATEGORY
RESTRICTIONS FROM THE 18Z TAFS. CONTINUE TO EXPECT LOW-MVFR
STRATUS OVER THE DFW AREA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AROUND/JUST AFTER
SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING. THE WACO AREA IS EXPECTED TO SEE LOWER
CIGS AND SOME IFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. EXPECT THE DFW AREA
TAF SITES TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS AROUND NOON WITH WACO
RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS OF
THE DAY.

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON RAIN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE
DYNAMIC REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL PROVIDE SOME LIFT FOR STORMS ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS LIFT
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST...AND THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
REPRESENTS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE BEST LIFT TOMORROW. ALSO...WITH
DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE ALOFT...IT WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO GET
A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS GOING ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR...DESPITE THE LIFT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE. AS A RESULT...LEFT ALL MENTION OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF
THE TAFS FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE BEST CHANCES FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN WEST OF LOCAL AREA TAF SITES.

CAVANAUGH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/
GOES PRECIPITABLE WATER SOUNDER SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DRYING OCCURRING
ALOFT AS EASTERLY WINDS ON THE PERIPHERY OF A LARGE ANTICYCLONE
OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION.
MOST OF THE DRY ADVECTION IS LOCATED JUST OFF OF THE SURFACE...AS
EVIDENCED BY THIS MORNING/S UPPER AIR SOUNDING WHICH SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER DROPPING A HALF INCH FROM YESTERDAY. HOWEVER
A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE CONTAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW WEAK SHOWERS THAT HAVE POPPED UP OVER MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING.

OTHERWISE THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST IS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE...CURRENTLY LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF LUBBOCK.
THE REMNANT LOW WILL TAKE AN EASTWARD JOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WHICH WILL BRING SOME GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE DOORSTEP
OF OUR WESTERN CWA. WHILE WE DO EXPECT STRONGER AND MORE ORGANIZED
LIFT TO REACH OUR WESTERN ZONES...THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY ADVECTION
FROM THE EAST WILL BE FIGHTING THE PROSPECTS FOR HEAVY OR
ORGANIZED RAINFALL IN OUR CWA. STILL WE EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS MAINLY WEST OF I-35 LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...WITH
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH
AFTERNOON HEATING. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE MORE LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 IN THE MORE
SUNNY EASTERN AREAS.

THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WILL
SEPARATE THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE CENTER FROM THE LOW-MID LEVEL
CENTER AND RESULT IN A WEAKENING/DISSIPATING SYSTEM. THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE 700MB CENTER...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO HEAD BACK TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THUS RAIN CHANCES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. DRIER AIR AND MORE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY...WHICH WILL BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER
90S. DEWPOINTS MAY MIX OUT INTO THE LOW 60S SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SO
IT SHOULD FEEL FAIRLY PLEASANT DESPITE THE ALMOST HOT TEMPS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST...THUS IT WILL HAVE
VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND ONLY RESULT IN A SLIGHT
TEMPERATURE COOL DOWN. WILL SHOW JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS AND 60S FOR LOWS AREA WIDE DURING THE
MIDWEEK TIME FRAME. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AND MODERATE
THEREAFTER. THE FORECAST LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY...WITH RATHER LIMITED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND THE STORM TRACK DISPLACED WELL NORTH OF
THE REGION INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TR.92

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  90  74  92  73 /  10  20  10  10  10
WACO, TX              71  90  70  91  71 /  20  20  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             69  88  69  90  67 /   5  10  10  10  20
DENTON, TX            71  89  69  91  69 /  10  20  10  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          71  90  69  91  68 /   5  20  10  10  20
DALLAS, TX            74  90  75  92  74 /  10  20  10  10  10
TERRELL, TX           71  90  70  92  70 /   5  10  10  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         71  91  70  92  71 /  10  20  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            72  90  70  91  71 /  20  30  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     72  85  70  90  69 /  20  40  20  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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