Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 180950
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
350 AM CST Thu Jan 18 2018


.SHORT TERM...
/Today and Tonight/

Wednesday`s sunshine helped to modify our arctic air mass, but
with extraordinarily dry air remaining in place, overnight
temperatures fell into the teens throughout nearly all of North
and Central Texas. Dew points have recovered some during the past
24 hours, but significant dew point depressions remain during the
predawn hours. The surface winds are near calm again this morning,
but wind speeds have increased above the surface. Although this
warm advection has so far been tepid, the stirring of the air
alone is disrupting the radiational cooling of the stable layer
beneath the nocturnal inversion. As a result, readings are
unlikely to fall much more before sunrise, and low temperatures
this morning will easily be warmer than yesterday morning`s.

The deepening upper trough over the Trans-Pecos will move east
today, spreading considerable cloudiness across South Texas. Some
of this will clutter the skies above our Central Texas zones this
afternoon, but the dry air and steadily increasing south winds
should assure all areas reach the 40s for the first time since the
arctic front arrived early in the week.

Southerly flow will continue tonight, but since the front pushed
the tropical moisture well offshore, dew points will only slowly
climb. This will mean another widespread freeze tonight across all
of North and Central Texas, but even the coldest spots Friday
morning should be in the 20s.

25

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Friday through Wednesday/

The shortwave that is currently over the Big Bend will trek east
across Texas through Friday. Meanwhile, southerly winds will
increase to 10 to 20 mph during the day Friday in the response to
the development of a lee side trough. A warming trend will
continue with highs expected to reach the upper 40s southeast
where there will be more cloud cover to the lower 60s northwest
where there will be abundant sunshine. There will be a low chance
of showers during the day southeast of a Temple to Palestine line.


As the lee side trough deepens further Friday night, a low level
jet will develop bringing a stronger surge of moisture northward.
Some warm advection showers will be possible mainly east of I-35
Friday night and Saturday. It will be breezy Saturday with south
winds 15 to 25 mph. Lows Friday night will be in the upper 30s to
mid 40s and highs on Saturday will be in the mid 60s east to the
mid 70s west.

An upper level trough will move across the Rockies Saturday and
into the Plains on Sunday. A dryline and Pacific cold front will
move rapidly east across Texas Sunday. With increased moisture,
instability and shear ahead of the dryline, there will be a
chance of showers and thunderstorms across most of the forecast
area Sunday morning and along and east of I-35 during the
afternoon. The best chances of thunderstorms will be to the east
of I-35/I-35E. The cold front will overtake the dryline Sunday
evening and sweep through East Texas Sunday night. Have left some
low PoPs along and east of a line from Bonham to Terrell to
Cameron into the early evening. South winds 15 to 20 mph ahead of
the dryline will shift to the southwest and west with the dryline
and to the northwest behind the front. Highs Sunday will be in
the mid 60s to lower 70s and lows Sunday night will be in the mid
30s to lower 40s.

Dry weather with near seasonal normal temperatures is expected for
the early and middle parts of next week. The GFS indicates that a
weak shortwave will move across the region on Wednesday that the
ECMWF and the Canadian do not show. With any of the solutions, it
looks like we should remain dry on Wednesday. A large upper level
trough is expected to move toward the Plains late week. Given the
different model solutions, for now have decided to just place
20-30 percent PoPs in for next Thursday.

58

&&


.AVIATION... /Issued 1111 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/
VFR conditions and south winds will prevail through the period. A
SCT/BKN cloud deck around 5 kft may encroach on Waco by midday
Thursday. Wind speeds will generally be 10 kts or less.

-Stalley

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    46  30  55  46  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Waco                44  27  52  44  67 /   0   0   5  20  10
Paris               43  25  50  40  63 /   0   0   0  30  30
Denton              46  26  57  45  69 /   0   0   0  10   5
McKinney            44  27  53  44  67 /   0   0   0  20  10
Dallas              46  31  54  46  68 /   0   0   0  20  10
Terrell             44  26  51  44  66 /   0   0   0  30  20
Corsicana           44  28  48  44  67 /   0   0   5  30  20
Temple              44  28  51  44  68 /   0   0  10  20  10
Mineral Wells       48  27  60  42  72 /   0   0   0   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

25/58



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