Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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000
FXUS64 KFWD 221120
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
620 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME WISPS OF STRATUS
NEAR 2000FT MAY PASS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NO CEILINGS
ARE EXPECTED. TR.92

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG LLJ (30-40KTS) RETURNED OVERNIGHT. ONCE
AGAIN THIS MORNING...THE NOCTURNAL STRATUS IS THIN AND THE GUSTY
WINDS ARE DISRUPTING THE SATURATION PROCESS...PREVENTING THE DECK
FROM BECOMING COMPLETELY SOLID. EVEN SO...CEILINGS WILL IMPACT
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES THROUGH MID-MORNING. HOWEVER...THE
AUGUST SUN SHOULD QUICKLY EVAPORATE THE CLOUD LAYER...ALLOWING
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE TO PUSH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES. THIS SCENARIO WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BUT A STEADILY WEAKENING LLJ WILL REDUCE THE
INCIDENCE OF MORNING CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO MEAN GRADUALLY
DECREASING SURFACE WINDS...WHICH WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL NORMALS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL MAKE THE HEAT FEEL A LITTLE MORE
OPPRESSIVE...BUT IT MAY ALSO ALLOW THE SEA BREEZE TO REAWAKEN.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES. THE
ECMWF IS LESS BULLISH WITH ITS CUT-OFF AND NOW RESEMBLES THE
CANADIAN. BOTH ARE STILL LESS PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS...WHICH
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A FRONT LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH ACCOMPANYING
RAIN CHANCES. WILL MAINTAIN LOW RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THIS FRONT WOULD
SIMPLY MEAN TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  99  78 100  78 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX             100  76 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             98  75  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            99  75 100  75 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          97  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            98  80  99  79  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           97  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         99  76  98  75  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            99  75  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX    100  73  99  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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