Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 301742
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1242 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the TAF sites through 00z Saturday
as an upper level ridge continues to dominate the weather across
the region. There will be some mostly thin high clouds and some
scattered late morning through afternoon cumulus. South southwest
winds at 7 to 10 knots at TAF issuance time will back to the
southeast 22-23z and veer to the south after 06z and south
southwest by 15z Friday. Since these winds are not operationally
significant, have not shown the wind direction changes in the
TAFS.

58

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/
An upper level ridge centered over New Mexico will develop
southeastward across Texas over the next couple of days, bringing
hot and dry weather to North and Central Texas through the
weekend. Meanwhile, a weak mid level trough continues to generate
convection over Arizona. As the ridge builds southeast, the trough
will propagate anticyclonically around its western and northern
periphery. Over the weekend, the ridge will flatten and elongate
west to east from northern Mexico to Florida as flow becomes zonal
across the CONUS. This will allow the trough to translate east
across the Central and Southern Plains Sunday into Monday.

Forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave trough will be
sufficient for the development of showers and storms across
northwest Texas and Oklahoma during the day Sunday. Convection
should be initially focused along a weak front extending from West
TX into the Central Plains. Activity will likely spread eastward
across the Red River region Sunday night. Convection should
attempt to back-build southwestward, along either the front or
outflow from earlier convection, Sunday night into Monday morning.
However, the southern edge of these showers and storms will be
shut off as they encounter strong subsidence from the larger scale
upper ridge. This exact southern extent will be in question, but
the most recent guidance warrants at least slight chance POPs
extended down to roughly the I-20 corridor Sunday night and early
Monday. Rain chances should then shift east of the region by early
Monday evening, leaving the region dry in time for Fourth of July
festivities.

Outside of convective weather, hot and humid conditions can be
expected this weekend through most of next week. Afternoon heat
indices will approach 105 in many locations during this time. This
means that borderline heat advisory conditions will occur Sunday
through next week. Even if heat advisory criteria is not
technically met, folks should take precautions with regard to
outdoor activities during the holiday weekend, namely drinking
plenty of water and refraining from over-exertion. Also, remember
to check the backseat of your car and keep it locked to prevent
kids from entering and playing in the automobile.

By the end of the forecast period, the upper level pattern is
expected to look very similar to the current pattern, which is
upper ridging across the western and central parts of the country
and upper troughing across the east.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  78  97  78  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
Waco                96  75  96  76  96 /   0   0  10   5   5
Paris               94  73  95  73  95 /  10  10  10   5   5
Denton              95  74  95  75  96 /  10   5  10   5   5
McKinney            95  74  95  75  94 /  10   5  10   5   5
Dallas              97  79  97  79  98 /   5   5  10   5   5
Terrell             95  75  96  75  95 /   5   5  10   5   5
Corsicana           97  75  97  76  96 /   0   5  10   5   5
Temple              95  73  95  74  95 /   0   0   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       95  72  96  73  97 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

58/82


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