Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
FXUS64 KFWD 290439 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1139 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016
Earlier convection has ceased across North and Central Texas. With
inhibition growing and nothing to force additional activity, a
quiet night looks to be on tap at the TAF sites.
Based on the latest radar, satellite, and model trends, am
becoming increasingly concerned about the prospect for convection
impacting the Metroplex sites on Friday afternoon. A thunderstorm
complex is currently moving out of the Colorado Front Range and
towards the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. While this activity should
weaken overnight, there are indications that outflow from this MCS
may drive all the way to the Red River by Friday morning. In
addition, a subtle mid- level shortwave is also forecast to
impinge upon this region during the afternoon hours.
Given how moist the low-levels will remain, it seems plausible
inhibition will weaken sufficiently during the mid afternoon
hours to allow convection to fire in the vicinity of this outflow.
That said, the very low confidence in the final location of this
outflow and the large variation in high-resolution solutions
precludes the introduction of thunder at this time. Have added in
VCSH after 29/21Z, however, and we will monitor for the potential
addition of VCTS in subsequent TAF issuances.
Waco looks to remain far enough removed from the better moisture
to preclude any mention of precip in the 06Z TAFs.
We will send out a quick update to lower pops and adjust hourly
temps and dewpoints based on current trends.
High Res models have backed off on any additional showers and
storms overnight and based on the current location of the storms
across the Central Plains, this seems like a reasonable solution.
A few storms may still make it south of the Red River after
sunrise Friday so will leave these pops in place for now.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016/
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across
portions of North and Central Texas this afternoon. Greatest
coverage has been across our far eastern, southern, and western
counties with little to no coverage across the metro area. Expect
these trends to continue through the next few hours. Lightning, brief
heavy downpours and gusty winds of around 40mph will be possible with
the stronger storms, particularly across our southern counties up
The last few runs of the HRRR have been quite bullish in bringing
thunderstorms from Oklahoma across the Red River and along the
I-20 corridor by late this evening. While coverage is increasing
across northern Oklahoma other guidance is less aggressive and
will tend to discount the HRRR solution for now. Greatest chances
for precipitation overnight into early Friday for our area will be
along the Red River near daybreak with the approach of an
overnight MCS expected to develop across SW Kansas and propagate
southeastward into Oklahoma. This pattern may repeat overnight
Friday into Saturday but the strengthening ridge should shift the
best rain chances further off to the north.
Extended forecast remains relatively unchanged as the upper ridge
is expected to recenter itself across the southern plains by this
weekend and slowly strengthen into next week. This will keep most
of the region dry beginning Friday and allow temperatures to
slowly warm into next week. By early next week increasing heights
combined with south southwesterly low level winds should
allow afternoon highs to reach or exceed 100 degrees across much
of the region Monday through Wednesday. The ridge begins to
slowly weaken over the latter half of next week which would allow
temperatures to ease slightly but produce no significant relief
from the heat.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth 78 97 78 97 79 / 20 10 10 10 5
Waco 76 98 77 98 77 / 20 10 5 5 5
Paris 73 94 74 95 76 / 20 20 20 20 5
Denton 74 96 76 97 76 / 20 10 10 10 5
McKinney 75 95 75 96 76 / 20 20 10 10 5
Dallas 78 97 78 98 78 / 20 10 10 10 5
Terrell 76 95 76 97 77 / 20 20 10 10 5
Corsicana 76 96 77 97 77 / 20 10 5 10 5
Temple 75 97 76 98 76 / 20 10 5 5 5
Mineral Wells 73 97 74 99 76 / 20 10 10 5 5