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000
FXUS64 KFWD 292133
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
333 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA RESULTING
IN COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. AFTER TODAY...A
LARGE PART OF THE FORECAST WILL LARGELY BE AFFECTED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH/LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE WEST OF BAJA. EVEN
THOUGH THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...IT WILL PLAY A ROLE IN BRINGING RAIN TO THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY
BRINGING AN END TO THE RAIN...BUT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
FINALLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRINGING
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO PART OF THE REGION.

BREEZY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF TODAY/S COLD FRONT WILL SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S ALONG THE RED
RIVER TO LOWER 40S IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW
WILL TOP OUT IN THE 50S WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM WEST TO
EAST ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED WEST OF BAJA WILL START
TO MOVE ONSHORE TOMORROW AND AS IT ADVANCES EAST IT WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION... THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL RETURN IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THE
RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL HELP IN QUICKLY ADVECTING
MOISTURE BACK INTO NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS. AS LARGE SCALE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE REGION AND THEN
SPREAD EAST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND NIGHT WHEN A PIECE OF DETACHED ENERGY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
MOVES FROM WEST TEXAS INTO OKLAHOMA. THIS ENERGY WILL AID IN
ADDITIONAL LIFT OVER THE AREA BUT INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE VERY
NEGLIGIBLE AND WILL LEAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER OUT OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER COULD
BE HEARD SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING
AN END TO THE RAIN BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. TOTAL QPF AMOUNTS
INDICATE MOST OF THE REGION WILL RECEIVE AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF
RAIN WITH SEVERAL LOCATIONS LIKELY RECEIVING AT LEAST AN INCH OF
RAIN. HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEHIND SUNDAY/S COLD FRONT...COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. THE WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE BREEZY WHICH WILL
RESULT IN WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE TEENS ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA MONDAY MORNING. ON TUESDAY MORNING...WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20S.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM BAJA WILL FINALLY MOVE CLOSER TO
TEXAS STARTING TUESDAY. THE MODELS VARY IN THEIR TRACK OF THIS
FEATURE WITH A TRACK EITHER ALONG THE TEXAS COAST OR THROUGH THE
STATE. A TRACK ALONG THE COAST TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS AREA BUT A TRACK THROUGH THE STATE
WOULD LIKELY RETURN ENOUGH MOISTURE NORTH FOR AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL RAIN. WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGESTING A TRACK
MORE THROUGH THE STATE WITH SOME RAIN IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES...WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS ALL BUT THE
NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1144 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

CONCERNS...GUSTY NORTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...WITH ONLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 TO 30 HOURS.

A COLD FRONT PASSED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING...AND NORTH
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING PUSH ON FRIDAY. SOME
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20KTS HAVE ALREADY ENSUED...AND WITH STRONGER
WINDS APPROACHING FROM OKLAHOMA...PEAK GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR 30KTS. WITH THE DIRECTION NEARLY DUE NORTH...ANY
CROSSWIND ISSUES WILL BE LIMITED TO LOVE FIELD AND DFW DIAGONALS.

WINDS WILL BEGIN VEERING TO THE EAST AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY. THE
ADVERTISED RAIN EVENT MAY BEGIN AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  40  54  41  50  44 /   0   5  20  70  90
WACO, TX              42  57  41  54  48 /   0  10  20  60  70
PARIS, TX             35  54  37  49  43 /   0   5  10  40  90
DENTON, TX            38  54  40  49  43 /   0   5  20  70  90
MCKINNEY, TX          37  54  39  50  43 /   0   5  20  60  90
DALLAS, TX            40  55  42  51  45 /   0   5  20  60  90
TERRELL, TX           39  55  40  52  46 /   0   5  20  50  80
CORSICANA, TX         41  56  41  54  48 /   0   5  20  50  70
TEMPLE, TX            43  56  41  54  49 /   5  10  20  60  70
MINERAL WELLS, TX     38  53  40  47  43 /   0  10  30  80  80

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

25/69/82