Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 020019 AAB
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
719 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPREADING IN
FORM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME OVERCAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. AS THE SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE AREA...LIFT IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CURRENT FORECAST HANDLES THIS WELL BUT HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO
TIMING AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LIKEWISE...ANY REMAINING SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF
THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORING HOURS ON MONDAY. NORTH WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH SKIES CLEARING LATER
IN THE DAY.

DUNN

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TAF CYCLE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS BASED AROUND FL040-060 CONTINUE TO IMPINGE ON
THE AREA FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING....WITH BKN CIGS AROUND FL040
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD ALL TAF SITES BY MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...SCATTERED ELEVATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION WHICH MAY AFFECT TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT...THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE MENTION OF VCSH TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS POTENTIAL. THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER OCCURRING AT ANY
TAF SITE IS QUITE LOW AND WILL CONTINUE TO OMIT IT FROM THE
FORECAST. HAVE DECIDED TO ELIMINATE MENTION OF MVFR CIGS MONDAY
MORNING WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE HINTING THAT ALL CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE FL040...EXCEPT PERHAPS WHERE ANY ISOLATED SHOWER IS
OCCURRING. SHOULD ANY MVFR CIGS DEVELOP...THEY SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD OR LONG-LIVED. NORTH WINDS AROUND 15 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.

STALLEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/
A DRY AND COOLER AIRMASS HAS TAKEN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL TX TODAY
WITH A STATIONARY COLD FRONT LOCATED NEAR THE I-10 CORRIDOR
TEXAS. MEANWHILE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NORTHERN AZ/NM
WILL CONTINUE TO OPEN UP AND LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

BETTER MOISTURE AND RESULTANT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA NEAR THE STALLED SURFACE
FRONT. AS THE LARGE-SCALE LIFT APPROACHES THIS EVENING...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA. SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA WHICH IS
WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL COOL SECTOR...THOUGH RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED
TO BE OVERLY HEAVY. ACTIVITY MAY START OFF AS VIRGA...BEFORE THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN BECOMES SATURATED ENOUGH TO TRANSPORT RAIN DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. WE WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA...DUE
TO THE DRIER COLUMN MOISTURE NEEDING TO BE OVERCOME AND THE
GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE UPPER DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE RED RIVER.
BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
SLIGHTLY RICHER PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.25-1.5 INCHES WILL EXIST BY
SUNRISE MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL TRAIL ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY MONDAY MORNING
WITH LINGERING CHANCES MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ARRIVES MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. THE MOSTLY CLOUDY...COOL AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT IN A COOL START TO THE WEEK WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING THROUGH
THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND LIKELY OUR COOLEST MORNING OCCURRING ON TUESDAY.
LOWS WILL FALL TO BETWEEN 45 AND 55 DEGREES...BUT SHOULD WARM
READILY BACK INTO THE LOWER 70S UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. BY LATE
IN THE DAY...A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT ARRIVES ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND MAY BRING A LOW CHANCE
FOR A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY
EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE DO NOT EXPECT THESE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OR SEVERE WEATHER AS MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE BASED IN THE
MID LEVELS. THAT BEING SAID...WE WILL WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY
AS THEY CAN BE TRICKY TO DIAGNOSE AND CAN CATCH ONE OFF-GUARD.
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND A WARM UP BACK INTO THE 80S FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

A LONGWAVE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES AND HIGHS WARMING
WELL INTO THE 80S. WITH THE GULF OF MEXICO OPEN FOR BUSINESS...A
GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL OCCUR BY FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THE AREA WILL GET
THE CHANCE TO DRY OUT SOME AFTER SOME OF THE RECENT HEAVIER RAINS
ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL THEN OCCUR LATER NEXT WEEKEND WITH AN
INCREASE OF CLOUDINESS AND SOME LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY THIS FAR OUT...
UNCERTAINTIES ABOUND ON MOISTURE...CAP STRENGTH AND INSTABILITY
REGARDING RAIN CHANCES AND SEVERE POTENTIAL NEXT SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MAY 9TH. IT/LL TAKE AWHILE BEFORE THIS SYSTEM TRULY GETS
SAMPLED WELL WITHIN THE NORTH AMERICAN U/A NETWORK AND DETAILS
BECOME MORE CLEAR ON ALL THESE PARAMETERS.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH    56  69  52  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
WACO                57  70  49  74  52 /  50  20   5   5   5
PARIS               54  68  49  71  51 /  30  10   5   5   0
DENTON              52  69  46  73  51 /  40  10   5   5  10
MCKINNEY            54  69  48  72  52 /  40  10   5   5   5
DALLAS              57  70  53  74  55 /  40  20   5   5   5
TERRELL             57  71  50  73  52 /  40  20   5   5   0
CORSICANA           59  72  52  73  52 /  50  20   5   5   0
TEMPLE              59  68  50  73  52 /  50  20  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS       50  67  47  74  50 /  30  10   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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