Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
741 FXUS64 KFWD 151709 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1209 PM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered storms (15-30% chance) are expected this afternoon across much of Central and Northern Texas. - Highs in the 90s and high humidity will result in daily heat indices in the upper 90s to near 107. - Beyond today, the only rain chances will be associated with seabreeze activity in Central/East Texas Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Wednesday/ An upper level ridge has inched further into eastern North and Central Texas today, which will result in generally rain-free conditions for areas roughly south of I-20 and east of I-35. Elsewhere, weak troughing aloft will allow another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop this afternoon. Gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy downpours will be the main threats. This activity will be diurnally-driven, so expect any lingering showers and storms this evening to dissipate with sunset. On Wednesday, the upper level ridge will continue to build in from the east, effectively shutting off any rain chances across the region. Expect a hot and sunny afternoon with highs in the low to mid 90s and afternoon heat index values mostly between 98-105 degrees. Barnes && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Wednesday Night Onward/ Rain-free weather and hot temperatures will be the rule through the remainder of the forecast period, as upper level ridging strengthens overhead. Temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will become common across the region this weekend, with NBM probabilities currently estimating a 20-30% chance for portions of North Texas to reach the century mark on Sunday. Heat index values will climb above 100 degrees for many locations each afternoon this week. Therefore, ensure you`re prioritizing heat safety. The only rain chances will be across portions of Central/East Texas where isolated seabreeze activity will be possible on Friday and Saturday. Barnes && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across Central Texas this afternoon. VCTS may eventually be needed in the KACT TAF, but given the limited coverage, there is low confidence in any activity near the terminal. A stray shower or storm can`t be entirely ruled out in southern portions of the Metroplex, but this potential is very low at this time. Otherwise, south winds will prevail through the period with wind speeds between 10-15 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. Weaker winds are expected overnight around 7-10 knots. Barnes && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 76 94 76 97 / 20 10 0 0 0 Waco 91 74 93 73 93 / 20 20 0 0 0 Paris 92 74 93 73 95 / 20 5 0 0 0 Denton 94 75 95 74 97 / 20 10 5 0 0 McKinney 93 75 94 75 97 / 20 10 0 0 0 Dallas 94 76 96 76 97 / 20 10 0 0 0 Terrell 94 74 95 73 96 / 10 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 95 74 95 74 97 / 10 10 0 0 0 Temple 93 73 94 72 94 / 20 20 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 94 74 95 73 97 / 20 10 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$