Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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000 FXUS64 KFWD 210446 AAD AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 1046 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009 .AVIATION... IFR/LIFR CIGS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG I-35 CORRIDOR AND AREA ARPTS IN VICINITY OF WEAK FRONT THAT HAS RETROGRADED SLOWLY WWD DURING THE EVE HRS...WITH MVFR VSBYS/CIGS FURTHER EAST...AND VFR CIGS WAY OUT WEST IN THE COLDER/DRIER AIR. OLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SLIDING SLOWLY WWD TOWARD DAYBREAK...BEFORE WASHING OUT BY LATE MORNING SATURDAY AS LEE-SIDE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AND WINDS BECOME SELY. WILL HOLD IFR/LIFR MENTION THROUGH 14Z OR SO...THE SLOWLY BRING CIGS UP TO MVFR BY LATE MORNING AS WEAK WAA OCCURS...THEN TO VFR CONDS BY 21Z-00 SAT...AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BECOMES STACKED AND MOVES OFF TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY. 05/ && .UPDATE... UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE STATE NOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN FALLS ACROSS THE AREA. SURFACE LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS WELL DEFINED AND IS NOW ON THE MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST. HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO FALL ALONG THE COAST AND OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS. ACROSS OUR AREA...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. 00Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER UP TO ABOUT 650MB...AND ALTHOUGH BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW WILL TRANSLATE EAST...LIFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS UPWARD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST...GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN. 91/DUNN && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM CST FRI NOV 20 2009/ AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THROUGH TOMORROW BEFORE MOVING INTO LOUISIANA TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN HAS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A PARIS TO KILLEEN LINE AS OF 21Z...HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST...SOME LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS JUST EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WILL BECOME DIFFUSE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AND WINDS WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS SATURDAY. THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST SATURDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW THE GFS MOS GUIDANCE. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WE WILL SEE A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. AFTERWARD...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE THANKSGIVING DAY WEEKEND. MORNING LOWS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY MORNINGS WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL. SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM DAY FOR NEXT SATURDAY. 58 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 52 65 48 68 52 / 60 20 5 5 5 WACO, TX 51 66 48 69 56 / 60 20 5 5 5 PARIS, TX 51 61 44 65 48 / 60 40 10 5 10 DENTON, TX 51 64 47 67 50 / 60 20 5 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 52 64 45 67 50 / 60 30 10 5 5 DALLAS, TX 52 66 51 69 53 / 60 20 5 5 5 TERRELL, TX 51 64 47 69 53 / 60 30 10 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 51 65 47 69 52 / 60 30 10 5 5 TEMPLE, TX 51 67 48 70 55 / 50 20 5 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 05/91
