Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
738 FXUS64 KFWD 191147 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 547 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorm chances return later today. Initial storms in our northeast will have a threat for isolated large hail. - Showers and storms will continue through early Friday. Heavy rain will create a threat for flooding during this period. - Additional storm chances return late this weekend into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 127 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 A weak front is currently draped near the Red River. This front is not really expected to move much further south into North Texas as its upper-level support continues to race off to the east/northeast CONUS. Otherwise, with cloud cover expected to continue to spread across the region this morning, expect morning lows to only dip into the mid 50s to mid 60s. The closed low responsible for our midweek pattern shift is currently just off the coast of southern California, and will continue to swing east into the Desert Southwest as we go through today. As this low gets closer, the weak front will be shunted back northward, with a dryline setting up just to our west. Over this afternoon isolated warm-advection showers will begin to develop, but more focused development is expected near the front and dryline in our west/northwestern zones early this evening. These initial storms will be more discrete in nature, and would have a threat for large hail given the > 7 degC/km lapse rates in place. The threat of tornadoes with these initial discrete storms is low, but non-zero, owing to less conducive low-level wind fields and some increased surface CIN in forecast soundings. However, there are two factors to watch: 1. wind speeds in the low-levels of the atmosphere are expected to increase Wednesday night, and 2. if surface winds become more backed compared to the low-level winds. If these things occur during the time of the more supercellular storms, this could locally increase the tornado threat. This will be something we`ll keep an eye on over the next 24 hours. Coverage of precipitation will increase overnight through Thursday as the upper low finally swings into the Southern Plains, spreading increased lift across the region. Showers and storms are expected on and off throughout the day, though storm mode would be a bit messier with lines and clusters expected. The overall severe threat for Thursday is on the lower end owing to a lack of substantial instability, however, there remains a potential for strong wind gusts with any better organized clusters or bowing segments that are able to develop. The biggest threat Thursday into Friday will likely transition to more of a hydrologic one as PWATs > 1.5" and long, skinny CAPE profiles continue to promote periodic heavy rain during this time. Flooding concerns will increase, particularly in areas that experience training showers/storms, and/or are in flood prone, low-lying spots. In total, most likely precipitation amounts continue to be a widespread 1-2" with isolated higher amounts up to around 4". The low will finally swing off to our northeast on Friday, shunting the Pacific front and rain chances further east/southeast, and eventually bring the cold front south through North and Central Texas. This will bring a general end to this round of showers and storms before our next system arrives later this weekend. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 127 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 Behind Friday`s cold front, we`ll see cooler temperatures to kick off the weekend. Highs on Saturday will peak in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Light rain will likely return during the day Saturday as increasing isentropic ascent spreads atop the post-frontal airmass ahead of an incoming upper level low off the coast of Southern California/Baja California. This low is progged to swing northeast into the Southern Plains as we end the weekend and go into next week, which will result in increasing rain chances. Exact rain amounts and locations of highest amounts remain uncertain this far out in time, as well as any specifics on the potential for severe or flooding. Continue to keep an eye on the forecast this week as more details will become available. Otherwise, cooler temperatures will stick around through early next week with highs in the 60s to low 70s expected Sunday-Tuesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025 MVFR cigs have overspread ACT this morning, and will continue to move northward. While there is low potential that they will make it to D10 before lifting back to VFR, we`ll need to keep an eye on the 16-19Z timeframe where probabilities of cigs increase. Out ahead of an incoming storm system, isolated to scattered showers are expected to develop this afternoon, but coverage remains too spotty and uncertain to include in the TAFs at this time. Better chances for terminal impacts will be after 05Z when showers spread from SW-NE across the region. There will likely be a temporary lull in between waves of precipitation in the morning hours (currently have it beginning at 13Z), but exact timing remains a bit uncertain and may change in future TAF issuances. Flying conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR near the end of the 30 hour extended TAF period. Beyond the current TAF period (after 18Z Thursday), additional chances for showers/storms and dismal MVFR or lower cigs are expected, but will be discussed in future TAF packages. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 67 75 61 / 10 80 90 90 Waco 82 68 75 62 / 30 70 80 80 Paris 82 66 75 61 / 10 70 80 90 Denton 82 63 74 56 / 20 80 90 80 McKinney 83 66 75 61 / 10 80 90 90 Dallas 84 67 75 62 / 10 80 90 90 Terrell 83 66 76 62 / 10 70 80 90 Corsicana 84 69 79 65 / 20 70 70 80 Temple 82 67 77 61 / 30 60 80 80 Mineral Wells 85 64 76 56 / 40 80 90 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Prater