906
FXUS63 KGID 151111
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
611 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions expected through the daytime hours today.
  Expecting southerly winds gusting around 25-30 MPH, with highs
  in the low 90s in the NNE to near 100 in the SW.

- Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon off
  to the NW of the forecast area, evolving into a more
  widespread complex and pushing SE during the evening-overnight
  hours. Strong-severe storms will be possible, with NWrn
  portions of the area included in the SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risk.
  Damaging winds and large hail will be the main hazards, along
  with very heavy rainfall rates...but an isolated tornado is
  not out of the question, especially with earlier activity.

- How activity pans out tonight will help drive the location of
  any frontal boundaries for Wednesday...affecting anything from
  temperatures to where the next round of storms fire late in
  the day-evening. Currently have about a 20-25 degree range in
  highs forecast, low 70s north to mid 90s south. Strong-severe
  storms will again be possible...the entire forecast area is in
  the Day 2 Marginal Risk area.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast through
  the end of the week into early next week...but confidence in
  timing/location details is not high. The overall coolest day
  of this 7-day forecast period is Thursday, with highs in the
  70s...but temps climb back well into the 80s-90s by the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 339 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Currently...

Been another night of quiet conditions across the region. Upper
air and satellite data show generally zonal flow in place
early this morning...set up between weaker high pressure spread
across the southern CONUS and broad troughing and embedded
shortwaves along/north of the US/Canada border. Satellite
imagery is also showing a fair bit of cirrus passing
through..keeping skies partly to mostly cloudy. The forecast
area remains set up between broad surface high pressure over the
eastern CONUS and overall weak low pressure/troughing over the
High Plains...keeping winds southerly, but on the light side,
around 10 MPH. No surprises with temperatures early this
morning, currently sitting in the upper 60s-low 70s for most
locations.

Today through Wednesday...

The daytime hours today are still looking to remain dry. Overall
there hasn`t been any notable changes in the models...showing
during the day the first of a couple upper level shortwave
disturbances to impact the area during this time frame gradually
shifting out from the Nrn Rockies onto the Nrn Plains. Ahead of
this upper level wave, surface low pressure is expected to
deepen over the central High Plains, with a frontal boundary
eventually sinking SE into western- north central NE, causing
the pressure gradient tighten up a bit over the forecast area.
This will bring strengthening southerly flow...with sustained
speeds around 15-20 MPH through this afternoon, gusts closer to
25-30 MPH. Dewpoints/temperatures overall look to not differ too
much from Monday...dewpoints again well into the 60s-low 70s
(highest in NNE areas), and temperatures from right around 90 in
the NNE to around 100 in the SW.

Later this afternoon...that surface frontal boundary sinking
into western/north central NE is expected to be the focus for
thunderstorm development...with a broad area of MLCAPE values of
2500-3000+ j/kg possible to its SE, potentially running through
the heart of the forecast area. Through the evening and
overnight hours, this initial activity is expected to evolve
into a larger MCS, with models remaining in pretty good
agreement showing it trucking through much of the forecast
area...aided by that instability axis and increasing convergence
along a strengthening low-level jet. There is still some
uncertainty with just how far south the more widespread coverage
gets...models showing warming mid-level temps/increasing
capping building into portions of the area.

Initial activity will have the potential for large hail and
damaging winds...and an isolated tornado is not out of the
question...with the main threat being more wind-focused as the
complex evolves and pushes further SE. While plenty of
instability is present area-wide, models currently focus the
highest values over a decent chunk of central NE, including much
of the NW portion of our forecast area...and SPC upgraded that
area to an Enhanced Risk for the Day 1 outlook. Little doubt
these storms will also be efficient heavy rain- makers...but
thankfully models show this being a fairly progressive complex,
should keep notable flooding concerns on the low side.

Much of this activity may wane/push east of the forecast area by
around 09Z or so...with more isolated/scattered precip linger
behind, potentially into the morning hours on Wednesday.
Expecting a lull during the daytime hours on Wednesday, and most
locations may end up dry...but with the next upper level
disturbance taking a similar track thorugh the Nrn Rockies, some
models show at least spotty light activity possible...so
couldn`t totally remove chances from the forecast. Temperatures
are really difficult...and will be driven by where the main sfc
frontal boundary ends up, which will depend on how things this
evening-tonight pan out. Current models are a touch further
south with that location than previous runs...now in general
agreement with that boundary draped west to east near our north
central KS counties, esp. the bottom row (Rooks- Osborne-
Mitchell). Hard to have a ton of confidence in that exact
location given tonight`s activity is what will drive it. North
of that boundary...expecting more clouds, easterly winds, cooler
temps...along/south, likely more sun, southerly winds and
warmer. Confidence in highs for Wednesday is not
high...especially across the central portions of the forecast
area roughly between the state line and I-80. Current forecast
has about a 20-25 degree range in highs...right around 70 in the
far north, to low-mid 90s in the far SSE.

As we get in the late day, evening and overnight hours...main
question is where activity develops as that upper level wave
moves through...is it mainly along the southern sfc-based
front or north of that front/tied closer to convergence around
850mb... potentially some of both. Because there still some
uncertainty with the exact locations of these boundary and where
storms fire/track...forecast precip chances in the 50-60 range
are pretty widespread across the southern half/two-thirds of the
forecast area. Those uncertainties also extend into things like
instability availability...and SPC kept the entire forecast
area in the Marginal Risk area for Day 2. Damaging wind and
large hail would again be main concerns...but some models aren`t
as quick to push activity through, if that were to pan out, the
heavy rainfall rates would become more of a concern...but it
also could mainly affect southern areas, vs tonight`s activity
which is expected to mainly affect central/northern areas.
Something to keep an eye on.

Thursday on into early next week...

Overall low confidence remains in place as we get into the
latter half of this week and into early next week. Models
continue to show that generally zonal flow looks to continue in
the upper levels across the entire region...sitting between the
broad high over the southern CONUS and periodic shortwave
disturbances affecting central and northern portions. Hard to
have much trust in the specific timing/location details in the
models, which continue to have some differences...and as a
result, chances for most days remain in the 20-30 percent range,
with Sat Night-Sun having some 30-40 percent chances.

As far as temperatures go, behind the two waves moving through
Tuesday and Wednesday...highs on Thursday are currently forecast
to top out in the mid 70s for most of the forecast area. Looks
to be a short-lived cooldown...with highs back in the mid
80s-mid 90s by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

No significant changes for this TAF period, with dry weather and
VFR conditions expected through early evening. Expecting
increasing southerly winds through the day, with this afternoon
having sustained speeds around 15-20 MPH and gusts near 25-30
MPH. A complex of thunderstorms is expected to push southeast
across the region mid-evening through the overnight hours, which
will bring impactful weather to both terminal sites. At this
point, timing of best chances of strongest storms looks to be in
the 03-07Z time frame. Some models/guidance suggesting lower
ceilings possible in the final few hours of this
period...mentioned a BKN035 ceiling, not enough confidence at
this time to go lower, but upcoming forecasts may need to
consider it.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ADP
AVIATION...ADP