667
FXUS63 KGID 052116
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
416 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold front moving through this afternoon brings chances for
  showers and thunderstorms and much cooler air tonight/Monday

- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for a few severe
  storms this evening and locally heavy rain tonight, mainly for
  far SE areas (i.e. Osborne to Hebron).

- Monday will truly feel like fall as highs only reach the 50s
  amidst plentiful cloud cover and chilly northerly breeze.

- Rest of the week appears mainly dry with a warming trend.
  Highs return to the 70s to low 80s late week into next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Long/well advertised cold front is on schedule this afternoon
and currently stretches from around York to Phillipsburg.
Ageostrophic lift (via mid level frontogenesis beneath
increasing right entrance region of upper jet streak) is on the
increase, as evident by expanding cloud cover. Short term, hi-
res guidance remains consistent in developing scattered
thunderstorms along the cold front over the next few hours, in
particular the 5-7pm time frame. The increasing cloud cover is
going to limit instability, but just enough forcing and upper
level shear could allow for a few strong to marginally severe
storms within the first few hours of development. Quarter size
hail and 50-60 MPH wind gusts are the primary risks. Expect
rather quick upscale growth from semi-cellular to linear cores
with both mean wind and deep layer shear vectors largely
parallel to the sfc boundary. This, combined with loss of
daytime heating, should keep the severe threat pretty confined
in time and space this evening. Perhaps a small hail threat
persists with cores in the elevated instability atop the frontal
slope towards 03-05Z as the LLJ intensifies, but whatever
instability remains by then will be rapidly declining.

With the expanding convection and boundary-parallel flow, could
see some locally heavy rain overnight from training cells.
Beloit to Hebron would be most favored corridor for this per 12Z
HREF, where there is 15-30 percent chance for rain amounts >2".
Ensemble mean is generally 0.75-1.25". Convection should tend to
become less focused in these areas late overnight as the LLJ and
scattered activity expands further N towards the I-80 corridor.

Monday will truly feel like fall with morning rain showers,
plentiful cloud cover, chilly northerly breeze (esp. AM), and
highs only in the 50s. Monday will, by far, be the least
favorable day of the week for outdoor activities...even with the
decreasing afternoon rain chances. Clouds should gradually clear
from N to S Monday night and allow for temps to cool into the
40s. Can`t completely rule out patchy frost in sheltered areas
in Valley County, but this will depend on how quickly clouds
clear out.

The rest of the week will favor mainly dry conditions and
gradually warmer temperatures. Tuesday afternoon could actually
be quite nice for early Oct with highs in the 60s, mostly sunny,
and light winds. Expect highs to return to the 70s to low 80s
for the second half of the week and perhaps extend into all or
most of next weekend. Frost potential beyond Tuesday AM remains
very low until at least mid-month.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Complex TAF period with multiple potential impacts: Wind shift
this afternoon, gusty N winds this evening, scattered
showers/storms tonight into Monday AM and MVFR to IFR CIGs.

Rest of today: Cold front is moving through the terminal space
now, turning winds from SW to W to NW. Should see a temporary
decr in speeds, but expect them to incr again late aftn into the
eve with stronger surge of cooler air. SCT-BKN clouds around
4-6K ft will prevail along the front. Confidence: High.

Tonight: Expect iso-scat showers and weak storms to develop N of
the front, esp in the 03-06Z time frame. Best chance for rain
will be around and after midnight. CIGs should lower as the
night progresses, probably to at least MVFR levels. However,
further reduction to IFR is possible after 09Z. Winds will be
NNW to NNE 9-12kt, with gusts 15-20kt. Confidence: Medium.

Monday AM: Scat showers will continue into Mon AM, along with
MVFR to possibly IFR CIGs. Should see rain activity decr late in
the AM. Winds will be NNE-NE. Confidence: Medium.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Thies