753
FXUS63 KGID 040536
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1236 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures and breezy/windy conditions
  dominate over the next 24 hours. This will result in elevated
  to near-critical fire weather on Saturday.

- A cold front will move through the area on Sunday, leading to
  a wide range in sensible conditions from cooler/brisk 70s
  in the W/NW to still quite warm mid 80s over the S/SE.

- This front should spark a SW to NE band of showers and
  thunderstorms Sunday evening into the overnight, with
  continued (though decreasing) chances Monday night into
  Tuesday. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms along the
  front Sunday, and localized areas could get 1-1.5" of rain
  Sunday into Monday, esp. S/SE of the Tri-Cities.

- Much cooler air settles into the area for the first half of
  next week, though frost/freeze concerns are still minimal at
  <10%. Warming trend looks to develop for second half of the
  week with highs returning to 70s and maybe even low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Unseasonably warm temperatures remain in place across the
region today under strong high pressure and sunny/mostly sunny
skies. 3PM temperatures range from the mid to upper 80s, and
likely have some isolated spots reaching briefly into the lower
90s. Fortunately, the heat is accompanied by a southerly breeze
and mostly sub-60s dew points...so it doesn`t feel too bad.
Evenings also tend to cool off nicely this time of year, though
continued elevated Srly breezes will keep overnight lows well
above normal for early Oct., likely only in the mid-upper 60s.

The upper ridge will begin to break down and shift E on
Saturday in response to a trough migrating from the Desert SW
into the central Rockies. Deepening lee low pressure will
really get the pressure gradient and Srly winds cranking by mid
to late Saturday AM and models remain consistent that a large
portion of the Plains will experience sustained winds 20-30 MPH
and gusts 35-45+ MPH. Such warm temperatures and strong winds
are often a concern for Fire weather as we get into the non-
growing months, and these concerns are detailed below.

Can`t rule out an isolated shower/weak elevated storm crossing
western into northern zones in strong WAA Sat night into Sun AM,
but the next cold front probably doesn`t enter even our far NW
zones until around sunrise Sun. The frontal passage itself
should remain pretty quiet in terms of rain chances until it
reaches our SE third (or so) during the afternoon and evening.
The timing of the front being during the day will likely lead to
a significant temperature gradient from NW to SE. Areas from
Lexington to Ord look to remain in the 70s amidst brisk NW
winds, whereas areas from Beloit to Hebron once again warm into
at least the mid 80s. Models remain consistent in firing
scattered convection in the vicinity of the front Sunday
afternoon and evening, though it remains to be seen just how
much of this is sfc-based along the front, vs elevated behind
it. Should sfc-based activity develop, could be just enough
marginal moisture/instability (500-1000 J/kg of CAPE) to combine
with fairly strong shear (35-50kt) to produce a few strong to
severe storms. Large hail would be the main concern, though a
well- mixed boundary layer could also support some isolated
50-60 MPH gusts under the strongest cores. Coverage of the sfc-
based activity remains unclear as forecast soundings indicate
some capping, and overall mid-level lapse rates are rather poor
for severe weather. A "Marginal Risk" (level 1 of 5) has been
introduced in the latest SPC Day 3 outlook for above reasons.

More probable scenario, however, is for increasing coverage of
showers and more elevated-based convection along and behind the
front Sunday evening into the overnight as weak upper level
energy in fast SW upper flow interacts with the lingering low
level baroclinic zone. Pooling moisture lifted back up and over
the lingering frontal slope within moderate low level warm air
advection will also promote development of scattered convection.
Appears areas S/SE of the Tri-Cities will be most favored for
this activity in the 03Z-09Z Mon time frame, and this is also
where guidance suggests some potential for localized higher rain
amounts - around 1-1.5" per 12Z EPS 75th-90th percentile. Some
additional development further N towards I-80 and perhaps even
Hwy 92 will be possible into Mon AM, though still some
uncertainty on coverage and organization. Regardless, the entire
area will be much cooler by Monday behind a reinforcing cold
front and under copious cloud cover, with highs much more fall-
like only in the 60s and perhaps even only upper 50s.

Temperatures should moderate closer to 70s Tuesday and Wednesday
given lesser cloud cover. Appears warm air advection returns for
the second half of the week, which should support more
widespread 70s to near 80F, and also some low-end rain chances.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Sat Oct 4 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Windy conditions with periods of LLWS will be the primary
aviation hazards tonight and Saturday. Winds will remain out of
the due south today, blowing between 20-30kts and gusting up to
35-40kts in the afternoon and evening. 45-50kts of LLWS will be
present trough 15z Saturday morning and will return back around
2z in the evening from a strengthened low-level jet. A few
clouds will swing in from the west Saturday night, brining a
small chance (20%) for non-severe storms for KEAR after 4z and
for KGRI after 6z. Ceilings are expected to stay VFR.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 345 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

The well above normal temperatures, combined with strong
southerly winds (sustained 20-30 MPH, gusts 35-45 MPH) will
result in elevated to near-critical fire weather concerns on
Saturday. Conditions currently look to fall just shy of
critical criteria as some moisture transport could offset the
deep mixing and hot temperatures. Lowest RHs around 20-25% look
to remain confined to along/W of Hwy 283 and only dip this low for
a couple hours. Most areas should remain closer to 30-35%, and
evening RH recovery should be robust. Fuels are also still
considered to be marginal. Glancing around area webcams reveals
quite a bit of green along highway ditches, which one would
expect in early Oct in the absence of drought and/or early
frost/freeze, esp for cool-season grasses. However, certain crops
are certainly curing in the hot, dry, breezy/windy conditions,
and ongoing harvest activities in these drier fields requires
some extra caution. Given the borderline humidity and fuels,
fire weather headlines are not expected at this time.
Nevertheless, outdoor burning is not recommended anywhere on
Saturday, and certainly not W and SW of the Tri- Cities.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...Stump
FIRE WEATHER...Thies