081
FXUS63 KGID 210950
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
350 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain continues through the mid-late afternoon hours for areas
  along and south of Interstate 80.

- Total rain accumulations will range from 1-1.5" across north
  central Kansas, to less than 0.10" north of I-80.

- Pleasant weather this weekend with highs in the 60s.

- Light rain possible Sunday night-Monday, with cooler air
  arriving Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 340 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Stratiform rain is gradually moving north over the area this
morning, with the northern edge currently located along and south of
Highway 6. Around sunrise, rain is expected to reach Interstate 80,
with little additional northward movement expected during the day.
Rain will persist throughout most of the daytime hours,for southern
portions of the area, with more scattered/sporadic rain along and
north of I-80. Rain comes to an end from north to south this
afternoon, with the forecast area expected to be rain free by the
late evening hours. Rain accumulations of 0.5-1" have already
fallen across north central Kansas. Additional accumulations of
0.5-1" are possible for areas along and south of Highway 136.
There will be a steady drop in rainfall accumulations across
south central Nebraska, with 0.10" or less expected along and
north of I-80. Patchy fog is possible throughout the day, but
widespread dense fog is not expected.

Skies clear tonight, becoming mostly clear by sunrise. Lows tonight
will be in the low to mid 30s. A pleasant weekend is in store for
the area. Highs on Saturday will climb into the 60s with southwest
winds of 5-15mph. Southerly flow strengthens over the area on Sunday
ahead of an approaching shortwave trough. Highs on Sunday will be in
the upper 50s to low 60s. The next chance for rain returns to the
area Sunday evening-night as the shortwave trough moves into the
Plains. Rain with this system looks to be fairly light around 0.10"
or less. Much cooler air moves into the area behind a cold frontal
passage on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Another cloudy, cool day across much of the local area where
persistent low level cloud cover has helped keep temperatures
down several degrees from the previous forecast. While the
extent of the remaining low level cloud cover is being partially
obscured by high level clouds approaching from the southwest,
the edges of what can be seen on satellite are steadily eroding,
which should allow most areas to warm a few more degrees. Once
the sun angle goes down, however, expect this low level stratus
to once again expand in coverage across the local area with some
patchy dense fog becoming possible once again late in the night.
Latest HRRR is once again indicating the potential for some
dense fog across the local area...primarily focused across our
Nebraska counties...and added similar wording to the afternoon
HWO.

For tonight...already seeing some upper level cloud cover
spreading across the local area ahead of the main upper level
low across the southern Rockies. Expect this low to lift
northeast over the next 12-24 hours, gradually spreading
precipitation chances across the local area. While the focus of
this system has slipped just a bit south from what models were
advertising yesterday, much of the local area will likely get
some measurable rainfall over the next 24 hours, with the focus
remaining across north central Kansas. Further north towards
I-80, expect a tight gradient in precipitation chances, with
precip totals more likely in the 0.1-0.25 inch range near the
Interstate...to over an inch across our Kansas counties. If
this materializes as expected, this will be the most significant
rainfall in almost a month across much of the area!

In addition to the cloud cover, rain, and potential fog for
Friday, expect a cooler afternoon with high temperatures in the
lower to mid-40s for most. This cool down will be short lived,
however, as heights aloft rise over the weekend and mostly
sunny skies return, allowing for temperatures to climb back
above normal...making for a very nice late fall weekend.

Late in the weekend, expect the next upper level low coming out
of the southwest to start spreading some cloud cover across the
area Sunday afternoon, with another chance for some light
rainfall returning Sunday night through Monday. If anything,
this system has continued to track just a bit further north,
meaning while nearly all of the area will see some rainfall, the
most favored areas will be across our south and east.

After this next system exits the area Monday, expect an overall
pattern change with the northern jet dominating and a
northwesterly cool (and occasionally unsettled) pattern setting
up across the plains for potentially an extended period of
time. Still not a sure thing, but a good number of ensemble
members are hinting at the potential for some snowfall as early
as Thanksgiving day, but more likely later over next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1158 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

For KGRI/KEAR Airports:

Dry air on steady NErly low level winds has kept CIGs and VSBYs
from lowering as much as previously expected...and appears
recent HRRR and RAP runs are finally catching on. Still think
most of the next 6 hours will have IFR CIGS and VFR to MVFR
VSBYs, though the edge of the IFR stratus will likely settle
very near both terminals. This is evidenced by GRI going back
and forth between SCT and BKN 800ft past few hours. The biggest
trend in recent runs is for the dry air to win out sooner on
Friday, such that primarily VFR conditions could be the primary
category by as soon as 14-15Z. Have thus leaned more on TEMPO
groups for the lower CIGs the highlight the trend against
prevailing. The dry air is also going to make it more difficult
for the rain showers to make it this far N, so have dropped any
inclusion of -RA (generally in the 12-18Z time frame) back to
PROB30s for both sites. Winds will be out of the NNE to NNW at
around 7-11kt rest of tonight and through Friday.

Should see gradually decreasing clouds and light winds Fri
evening. An increasingly Wrly component to sfc winds should
preclude significant fog concerns Fri night, but something to
monitor in later updates.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Davis
DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Thies