445
FXUS65 KGJT 301024
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
324 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winter Weather Advisories remain active for most mountain
  zones across the West Slope with 3-10 inches of new snow
  expected by Monday morning.

- Travel on mountain passes is expected to be challenging this
  afternoon and Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Colder temperatures behind today`s cold front will keep a
  cold trend in place this week.

- Another winter storm may move through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MST Sun Nov 30 2025

Satellite imagery and the GFS appear to be pretty consistent this
morning with the placement of the digging jet working southward into
the Great Basin out of the PACNW. Water vapor is showing a fairly
well stacked moisture profile extending from NORCAL across the Great
Basin. This should bode well for snow production as the frontal
boundary settles across the region this morning. Winter Weather
Advisories remain on schedule to start across our northern mountains
and work south by mid-day, covering most of our terrain on the West
Slope. I did add the La Sals, Abajos, and Uncompahgre Plateau into
the advisory roster, as QPF values really jumped up when the frontal
boundary drapes across them this afternoon. I suspect some of the
more convective showers along the front will be rather productive.

As the frontal boundary works south this afternoon, a few banded
snow showers could really muck up area roadways. All of our mountain
passes are expected to have some snow cover this afternoon and into
Monday morning. Travelers and commuters will want to stay abreast of
local conditions before they head out. Higher snow levels will
keep snow out of our lower valleys today, but behind the front
this evening, some remnant moisture is expected to mix some rain
and snow down below 5000 feet. Snow begins to taper off across
the northern mountains after midnight tonight, while the Central
Mountains and the San Juans will see measurable snowfall
continue into Monday morning. All but a sliver of high country
against the Continental Divide should be clear of snow by mid-
morning Monday. Skies clear out and cold, clear conditions
settle in. Overnight lows might need adjusted up north, as they
reflect cloud cover pushing out and the Yampa Basin dipping into
single digits. Afternoon highs Monday will trend 5-10 degrees
below climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM MST Sat
Nov 29 2025

Ensembles are in good agreement of a shortwave ejecting southwards
through the western CONUS through the mid-week. The moisture
accompanying this feature isn`t overly impressive, but PWAT`s will
still be 125-175% of normal. Though confidence in the development of
this shortwave is high, the behavior of it is not so well
understood yet. Tuesday into early Wednesday, it`s likely that
the low will center over the Great Basin and little
precipitation for us. Models diverge beginning Wednesday
afternoon with the ECMWF suggesting the low will close and shift
deeper into the Desert Southwest, whereas the GEFS believes the
wave will remain open and begin a slow southeastward transit
through our CWA. In spite of this notable difference, both
ensembles pull enough moisture through the area to drop some
mild snow over the high terrain through Thursday. Even so, the
lack of strong forcing is keeping current snowfall forecasts on
the low end and confined to the mountain ranges. Though the
details of this storm are up in the air, we`re trending towards
low-impact weather and little snow to add to the slopes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

Expect VFR conditions with high broken skies. Mid level clouds
move in in the early morning hours with ceilings lowering after
about 14Z in the northwestern areas spreading east and south
across the region by about 21Z. Snow showers begin in the
northern mountains around 15Z spreading south into the central
Colorado mountains by 18Z and the southern mountains by about
21Z. Snow tapers off to the north after 00Z, but continues along
and south of I-70 through the remainder of the TAF period. KASE,
KEGE and KRIL will drop below ILS breakpoints by 18Z with the
other Colorado TAF sites going below breakpoints by 00Z.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to noon MST
     Monday for COZ004-013.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon MST Monday for
     COZ009-010-012-017.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to noon MST
     Monday for COZ018-019.
UT...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to noon MST Monday for
     UTZ028.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LTB
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...DB