


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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114 FXUS65 KGJT 062124 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 324 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - A Freeze Watch is in place for the Central Yampa Basin Tuesday morning. - Non zero chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms on the San Juans Tuesday and Wednesday. - Drier conditions continue through Wednesday. However, moisture returns Thursday and beyond, bringing the potential for widespread precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 302 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Drier conditions continue to develop this afternoon on the backside of the trailing edge of a system working across the Great Lakes. Light west-northwest winds, abundant sunshine, and some fair weather cumulus fields over the terrain are making for a pleasant early autumn day here on the West Slope. Cooler air, light winds, and clearing skies will drop temperatures again tonight across the region. The Freeze Watch for the Central Yampa Basin is still in effect for Tuesday morning, where temperatures will drop into the upper 20`s. Elsewhere in our other freeze susceptible valleys, climatology is on our side and temperatures will remain above the freezing threshold. High pressure continues to develop across the Rockies and on the Plains Tuesday afternoon. This will send area temperatures back up near normal Tuesday. Abundant sunshine will once again make for a nice autumn day. Return flow from the surface high on the southern Plains will push some weak moisture into the southeastern portion of our CWA around Pagosa Springs. A few clouds will come about, along with non zero precipitation chances on the San Juans. Wetting rains are not likely though. Southwesterly flow and subsidence will keep lows on the warm side of climatology Tuesday night, likely not requiring additional freeze headlines. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 302 PM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 The dry air residing over us is expected to budge as the Rex Block to our west diminishes, the California closed low being absorbed into the descending PacNW wave. Upper-level flow gains more of a southerly direction as a result, pulling the Desert Southwest pool of anomalous moisture northwards. This pool moves slow enough that Wednesday will still be on the drier side with little more than orographically-driven isolated showers over the San Juans expected, as far as precipitation goes. But as we progress into the late-week period, PWAT`s will be on the rise. Latest model guidance is higher than it was 24 hours ago, with both the ECMWF and GEFS reaching PWAT`s 250-300% of normal by Friday (and localized higher values according to the former). Confidence is high in a widespread precipitation event from Thursday through Sunday as a result. Rain will dominate due to warming low- and mid-level temperatures. With lacking instability coinciding with this strong surge of moisture, current forecasts look to favor more of a stratiform and steady rainfall event, though stronger embedded thunderstorms will be possible. Because of the juicy atmosphere from Thursday through the weekend, the potential for flash flooding is there. In the event of a stratiform-dominated storm setup though, flash flooding impacts should be less prominent. Focal points would be on burn scars, stray embedded thunderstorms where localized rainfall would be heavier, and areas experiencing longer periods of moderate rainfall. While stratiform is the higher likelihood storm mode, should instability become more favorable or frontal passage occur sooner (thus coinciding better with the stronger moisture pool), more intense rainfall rates associated with discrete thunderstorms could pose a heightened flash flood risk. Deterministic models are hinting at relatively slow storm motion as well, which would exacerbate the threat. With low certainty in storm mode right now, I wouldn`t go betting one way or another on how things will set up Thursday onwards just yet. Stay up-to-date with the latest information and guidance, especially as we begin to see high-resolution model data become available over the next few days. Regardless of what scenario unfolds, it is imperative to stay weather aware throughout this event. If you are planning to be outdoors, ensure you have a way of receiving weather alerts and have a plan in the event that inclement weather moves overhead. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1118 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Skies should be mostly clear again today with VFR conditions expected region-wide. Winds will be mostly calm with some occasional gusts around 20 kts possible this afternoon at KEGE, KRIL, and KTEX. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from midnight MDT tonight through Tuesday morning for COZ002. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...BW AVIATION...TGJT