144
FXUS65 KGJT 292008
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
108 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An upper level disturbance and surface cold front will bring
  another round of snow tomorrow into Monday for the mountains
  of Colorado. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for 4
  to 8 inches of new snow as the system moves through.

- Cooler temperatures have moved in today and a reinforcing shot
  of cold air will move in on Monday as highs drop to below
  normal.

- Another winter storm may move through midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 1226 PM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

The snowfall from this morning`s shortwave has ended with
plenty of sunshine now being felt across the CWA along with
some high clouds. North through northwesterly flow behind this
wave will cause high temps to drop a few degrees this afternoon
from what we saw yesterday, despite the sunshine. The next
system to affect our area is currently a weak midlevel
circulation located over Washington State. Overnight, this
feature will drop southeast through the Great Basin and tap into
some moisture as it does so. By tomorrow morning, the weak
circulation will be in the base of an upper level trough,
supporting a surface cold front. Light snow will begin Sunday
morning for the northern half of the CWA and as the trough and
front move through, snowfall will become more widespread. Lift
will be maximized along the front Sunday evening through early
Monday morning which is when the heaviest snow is expected over
the Elks and West Elks and then San Juans. Issued several Winter
Weather Advisories to account for this snowfall with 4 to 8
inches of new snow possible with some higher amounts expected
for the highest elevations. Once the front and trough move off,
clearing skies and cooler temperatures will move in thanks to a
reinforcing shot of cold air from the northwest. High temps are
expected to drop below early December normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
 Issued at 1226 PM MST Sat
Nov 29 2025

Ensembles are in good agreement of a shortwave ejecting southwards
through the western CONUS through the mid-week. The moisture
accompanying this feature isn`t overly impressive, but PWAT`s will
still be 125-175% of normal. Though confidence in the development of
this shortwave is high, the behavior of it is not so well
understood yet. Tuesday into early Wednesday, it`s likely that
the low will center over the Great Basin and little
precipitation for us. Models diverge beginning Wednesday
afternoon with the ECMWF suggesting the low will close and shift
deeper into the Desert Southwest, whereas the GEFS believes the
wave will remain open and begin a slow southeastward transit
through our CWA. In spite of this notable difference, both
ensembles pull enough moisture through the area to drop some
mild snow over the high terrain through Thursday. Even so, the
lack of strong forcing is keeping current snowfall forecasts on
the low end and confined to the mountain ranges. Though the
details of this storm are up in the air, we`re trending towards
low-impact weather and little snow to add to the slopes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1010 AM MST Sat Nov 29 2025

VFR conditions prevail late this morning and winds are mostly
calm. Look for moisture to return from the north towards the
end of the TAF period. Little to no precipitation is expected
until beyond the 24 hour period though.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM Sunday to noon MST Monday
     for COZ004-013.

     Winter Weather Advisory from noon Sunday to noon MST Monday
     for COZ009-010-012.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to noon MST Monday
     for COZ018-019.

UT...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGJT
SHORT TERM...TGR
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...TGJT