


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO
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752 FXUS65 KGJT 160002 AFDGJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 602 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong thunderstorms are possible in southwest/south central Colorado this evening. - Flash flooding remains a concern for portions of Archuleta and Hinsdale counties this evening. - The passing frontal boundary will bring freezing temperatures to low valleys Friday morning. - The next system drops down from the northwest early next week bringing scattered rain and mountain snow showers to the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 336 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 The persistent low pressure center camped out over the Great Basin continues to deliver showers and thunderstorms to water logged portions of Southwest Colorado this afternoon. Flash Flood highlights remain in place for portions of Archuleta and Hinsdale Counties, as well as for the San Juan River through Pagosa Springs. The low lifts north and east out of the Great Basin this evening. This will shift some of the training storm activity east across the Divide out of the region by daybreak. In the meantime, a few strong storms are not out of the question on the shoulders of the San Juans this evening. Gusty winds, hail, and heavy rain are possible with a few storms. This will be enough of a threat to hang on to flood highlights until we can get enough dry air to squash precipitation potential. Tonight, closer to the low pressure center and along the trailing frontal boundary, showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will continue across the region north of the highway 50 corridor. Snow levels drop to near 7000 feet by daybreak, this should deliver some light snow mixed in with the rain by daybreak for most of our mountains. The best chances for accumulating snowfall will be on the higher terrain of our northern mountains, including the Uintas, Elkheads, and Park Range, where 3 to 5 inches of snow are expected above treeline. Between treeline and the lowest snow levels, a dusting to 1 inch is expected. Precipitation will finally wind down for most of the region on Thursday, with a few showers hanging on along the departing frontal boundary north of the highway 40 corridor Thursday afternoon. Clear skies and cold air behind the front will usher in a wave of some of the coolest temperatures of the season Friday morning. Mountain lows will be in the 20`s, while lower valleys should all reach the upper 30`s, including some below freezing. A Freeze Watch is in place Thursday night and Friday morning for many of our valley locations, where overnight lows will dip into the upper 20`s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 336 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 On Friday the low pressure system impacting our CWA will be centered over North Dakota, well to our northeast. After the passage of this system, flow will shift to northwesterly, bringing drier air to the region. In general, PWATs will fall to near or below normal through the weekend, with the lowest amounts falling to around 50% of normal. This will keep us dry pretty much until the next system arrives, perhaps early next week. With cooler northwesterly flow in place, and reduced cloud cover overnight from drier conditions, overnight lows will likely drop below freezing for many high elevation locations, including mountain valleys. The Grand Valley and desert valleys of eastern Utah look to remain above freezing temperatures through the long term period. Temperatures will warm a bit Saturday and Sunday as flow begins to transition to westerly. The next potential for a return of active weather looks to be early next week. Models are showing a trough moving through the west as early as Sunday evening, and potentially reaching our CWA Monday. There is still some significant differences between models on the timing and southward extent of the trough. Additionally, ensembles are suggesting dry conditions at the start of next week, which would lead to a lower precipitation event, even with abundant upper level support. So, confidence remains pretty low regarding the details of this potential system. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 554 PM MDT Wed Oct 15 2025 Thunderstorms will continue across portions of southwest Colorado with scattered showers across the northern and central areas this evening with showers continuing overnight across northwest Colorado as a low pressure system passes through. Coverage of showers is scattered so confidence in occurrence at TAF sites is lower so included PROB30 groups to account for these showers/storms through Thursday morning. Expect generally VFR conditions with periods of MVFR during any showers. The heavier showers are focused across southeast portions of the CWA which do not appear to impact TAF sites. Drier air will accompany the frontal passage overnight into Thursday, further reducing shower coverage. Expect breezy to windy conditions of 25 to 35 kts to TAF sites this evening into portions of the overnight as this system passes through. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...Freeze Watch from late Thursday night through Friday morning for COZ001-002-005-007-008-020>023. UT...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...LTB LONG TERM...GF AVIATION...TGJT