Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 241010
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
410 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The upper low that brought unsettled weather to the region with
valley rain, mountain snow and some thunderstorms is now located
over southeast Colorado and quickly moving eastward into Kansas.
Thunderstorms are seen wrapping around the center of the low over
southeast Colorado with plenty of moisture and ascent blossoming
across Nebraska and northeast Colorado according to the latest
GOES-16 satellite imagery. Some showers are continuing across
the central and southern Colorado mountains in the wraparound flow
from the northeast and north, but overall radar and satellite
trends show showers are weakening with cloud tops warming and
overall thinning out. The northwest San Juans however should
continue to see periods of moderate snowfall as this northerly
flow favors the Uncompahgre Gorge area, as indicated by time
heights showing decent ascent through about 6 am before drier and
more subsident air moves in from the north. This drier and
subsident air should bring an end to most precipitation across the
region from the north and west with improving conditions
throughout the late morning into the afternoon. Mostly sunny skies
are expected this afternoon with temperatures rebounding towards
near normal levels as a ridge of high pressure slides in from the
west.

This ridge of high pressure quickly slides east by Saturday
morning with southwest flow increasing Saturday afternoon, leading
to a mild and breezy day. Clouds will increase from the west as
the next system approaches with showers increasing across eastern
Utah late Saturday afternoon and spreading into western Colorado
Saturday evening as the system quickly moves across as an open
wave. This system looks fairly weak yet isolated thunderstorms are
possible with again high snow levels. The best chance for
precipitation will be Saturday evening and overnight with a couple
inches possible for the higher terrain, mainly over the northern
and central mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

The weather pattern will stay active through the weekend and into
early next week. Forecast guidance begins to diverge after
Saturday regarding details for the remainder of the weekend and
next week. The 00Z ECMWF cuts off Saturday`s trough at 500mb over
the central high plains, slowing the system and allowing for some
scattered snow showers to linger in the Colorado Rockies through
the day on Sunday. The 00Z GFS is a bit more progressive and open
with the wave, bringing precipitation to an end around late
morning. Guidance is in agreement on a dry overnight on Sunday
night into Monday morning. The 00Z ECMWF and 00Z GFS have come
into better agreement regarding the next system to impact the area
Monday afternoon through Wednesday morning, staying pretty
progressive, bringing cloud cover and showers back into the region
as the trough moves across the area.

Model discrepancies exist for the next system after that, set to
impact the area Thursday morning into Friday. Both models
develop a strong closed upper level low pressure system over the
southwest, with an extended period of wet weather throughout the
day Thursday and into Friday of next week. The GFS is more
progressive with this trough while the ECMWF keeps the low over
the Great Basin. Temperatures aloft will be cooler than lately,
but not altogether cold through the forecast period. Therefore,
snow levels during precipitation will likely remain no lower than
7500 feet. These marginal temperatures will favor meaningful
accumulations only above 8000 feet or so. Welcome rainfall for
many valleys is certainly possible next week - however details
will need to be ironed out as we go through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Fri Mar 24 2017

Some showers will continue through the morning hours, mainly
across west-central and southwest Colorado, with low CIGS and
breezy winds before coming to an end after 15Z. Mountain peaks
will be obscured at times in snow. Improving conditions will be
seen throughout the late morning into the afternoon with mostly
sunny skies expected by afternoon. VFR conditions will be the rule
from 18Z through Saturday morning.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM MDT this morning for COZ009-
     010-012-018-019.

UT...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MDA
LONG TERM...MDA/MAC
AVIATION...MDA



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