Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 032334
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
534 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH MIDWEEK. IN RESPONSE...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
WARM WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS WEDNESDAY CLOSE TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO RUN WARMER THAN
NORMAL BUT NOT BY AS MUCH AS CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR
RESULT IN STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. THEREFORE...WILL UNDERCUT
FORECAST LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF INDICATED THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. EXPECT LITTLE MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS ACTIVITY BUT BEARS MENTION...SO HAVE ADDED
TO WEDNESDAY/S FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

THE REGION APPEARS TO BE HEADED FOR THE WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR ON
THURSDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER APPROACHES SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FORCING THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. THE RESULTANT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE INFLUX FROM THE SOUTH
WILL ALSO CARRY MOISTURE OVER THE REGION RESULTING IN INCREASED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT SHOULD
SUSTAIN SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST THROUGH THE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY EASES ONSHORE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA FRIDAY STRENGTHENING THE WIND GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTH WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
MEANWHILE...DEEPENING MOISTURE AND INCREASING LIFT SHOULD BRING A
BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE STORM CENTER SLOWLY MOVES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AT AND BELOW 10000 FEET SO ANTICIPATE LIMITED IMPACTS DUE
TO SNOW.

TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN FALL BELOW SEASONAL NORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY AND WILL STAY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS...THOUGH COOLER...WILL BE BUOYED BY CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY CROP THREATENING FREEZING
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT TUE MAY 3 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NL
LONG TERM...NL
AVIATION...JDC



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